Missiles, Aircraft… Missiles, Aircraft… Airborne, Amphibious… Airborne, Amphibious… Blockade… Blockade… Week7 PLA Military Modernization

US Department of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People ’ s Republic of China 2014, China_Report.pdf US Department of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People ’ s Republic of China 2014, China_Report.pdf Dean Chen, “ The China Military Report and What ’ s Left Unsaid, ” WebMemo No. 2987, August 23, 2010, Published by The Heritage Foundation, /pdf/wm2987.pdf Dean Chen, “ The China Military Report and What ’ s Left Unsaid, ” WebMemo No. 2987, August 23, 2010, Published by The Heritage Foundation, /pdf/wm2987.pdf Readings…

The PLA has developed and deployed military capabilities to coerce Taiwan or to attempt an invasion, if necessary. The PLA has developed and deployed military capabilities to coerce Taiwan or to attempt an invasion, if necessary. These improvements pose new challenges to Taiwan ’ s security, which has been based historically upon the PLA ’ s inability to project power across the 100 nautical mile Taiwan Strait, Taiwan ’ s armed forces ’ technological superiority, and the possibility of U.S. intervention. These improvements pose new challenges to Taiwan ’ s security, which has been based historically upon the PLA ’ s inability to project power across the 100 nautical mile Taiwan Strait, Taiwan ’ s armed forces ’ technological superiority, and the possibility of U.S. intervention. Force Modernization and Security in the Taiwan Strait

Formal declaration of Taiwan independence; Formal declaration of Taiwan independence; Undefined moves toward Taiwan independence; Undefined moves toward Taiwan independence; Internal unrest on Taiwan; Internal unrest on Taiwan; Taiwan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons; Taiwan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons; Indefinite delays in the resumption of cross-Strait dialogue on unification; Indefinite delays in the resumption of cross-Strait dialogue on unification; Foreign intervention in Taiwan’s internal affairs; Foreign intervention in Taiwan’s internal affairs; Foreign troops stationed on Taiwan. Foreign troops stationed on Taiwan. PRC’s “Red Lines”

Article 8, Beijing may use “non-peaceful means” if “secessionist forces … cause the fact of Taiwan’s secession from China;” if “major incidents entailing Taiwan’s secession” occur; or, if “possibilities for peaceful reunification” are exhausted. The ambiguity of these “redlines” preserves Beijing’s flexibility. Anti-Secession Law

Maritime Quarantine or Blockade. Maritime Quarantine or Blockade. Limited Force or Coercion. Limited Force or Coercion. Air and Missile Campaign. Air and Missile Campaign. Amphibious Invasion. Amphibious Invasion. Small Taiwan-held islands. Small Taiwan-held islands. Defended offshore islands. Defended offshore islands. Taiwan it self. Taiwan it self. Use of Force Options………

DF 11 DF 15 DH-10

Su-27SK/UBK J-11/Su-27SK 95~116 Su-30MKK/Su-30MKK J-10 ~120 JH-7 ~72 4th Generation Fighter Aircraft 5th Generation Fighter Aircraft

Type 99G2

ZBD05 ZLT05

ZDB03

A Question of Balance A Question of Balance, p O71 Zubr

Division 40t 15t

Brigades 8t 18t 4

Surface Fleet C 054A

Submarines Kilo

Large-scale amphibious invasion is one of the most complicated and difficult military maneuvers. Amphibious invasion of Taiwan is a significant political and military risk. Large-scale amphibious invasion is one of the most complicated and difficult military maneuvers. Amphibious invasion of Taiwan is a significant political and military risk. China today probably could not enforce a full military blockade, interdicting and if necessary destroying nearly all traffic into Taiwan, particularly in the face of intervention by a major naval power; but its ability to do so will improve significantly over the next five to ten years. China today probably could not enforce a full military blockade, interdicting and if necessary destroying nearly all traffic into Taiwan, particularly in the face of intervention by a major naval power; but its ability to do so will improve significantly over the next five to ten years. PLA Capabilities Assessment

Out of Backwardness Out of Backwardness A Pocket of Excellence A Pocket of Excellence Overtakes Taiwan Overtakes Taiwan Intentionally Downplay the THREAT??? To Sum Up A Great Leap Forward Cross-Strait Military Balance Tilting…

Defense Still has the Advantage! Requires Asymmetric Thinking!! R.O.C. Defense Policy Overhaul Needed!!