Are Things Ever Going to Get Better? Martin Shields Associate Professor of Economics Colorado State University

The Biggest Downturn Since the Great Depression 2 Percent of pre-recession peak jobs lost

Today’s Goals To provide a better understanding of recent trends in Colorado’s economy and what it means for moving forward To describe a couple of outcomes of the Great Recession as they relate to higher education in Colorado

The Aftermath Over the course of the recession Colorado lost 114,000 jobs 43,000 lost in construction 19,000 lost in manufacturing Since the recession’s end in summer 2009 the state lost an additional 42,000 jobs

A Lost Decade? Source: BLS

Household Incomes have Stagnated in Colorado Inflation Adjusted Median Household Income Source: US Census Bureau

But College Costs are Increasing Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2009

1-Year of CSU as Share of Median CO Household Income Source: CSU and US Census Bureau

While Things ARE Going to Get Better, They are First Going to Get Worse Maybe much worse

State Revenues Hit Hard Source: Legislative Staff Council September 2010

Bigger Pieces and a Smaller Pie Source: Joint Budget Committee

ARRA Bailed Out the General Fund with respect to Higher Ed Source: Colorado Department of Higher Education

Across the Nation, Lower State Support Means Students Pay More Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2009

At CSU, Students Pay More than 60% of Education Costs Source: Colorado State University

Some Reasons for Optimism

The Recession IS Over… I Swear! Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

And Education Remains a Key to Employment Unemployment rate

College Degrees Offer a GREAT Return on Investment Average earnings for full-time, year round worker CO 2009 Source: US Current Population Survey

And You’ve Got to Admit It’s Getting Better Source: US Current Population Survey Growth in average earnings for full-time, year round worker CO

Between 2001 and 2009 a full-time employed Bachelor’s degree holder averaged nearly $250,000 more in earnings than a full time employed worker with a high school degree in Colorado

Colorado’s Ethnic College Achievement Gap Colorado’s Hispanic Population: 38% have not graduated from high school Only 6% have an associate degree Only 8% have a bachelors degree The state’s “Associates Degree or Higher” gap between White’s and Hispanics is 31.2 percent

Are Things Ever Going to Get Better?

Painfully Cautious Optimism The US and state economies are recovering, but it is going to be a long slog Because of declining state revenues, mandated spending, and the end of ARRA, higher education in Colorado is incredibly vulnerable While Colorado’s post-secondary programs are incredible, costs are going to increase, and quality could very well suffer It is essential to understand that the state’s economic future has tremendous impacts for your work We need to create high paying jobs to make sure that higher education does not fall out of reach for Coloradoans We must confront the reality of the state’s changing demographics