Thoughts for a morning Source: Dr. Seuss The places we’ve been Where we are now Oh, the Places we (might) go!
Growth in Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Growth in Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
State and National Outlook National Outlook – Moderate growth – Slow reduction in remaining labor slack – FOMC forecasting 2.4% growth – Interest rates rising but slowly State – Positive but only moderate growth – ~2.5%
Federal Reserve Primer Federal Reserve’s FOMC set’s monetary policy – Dual Mandate: Stable Prices Maximum Employment – Increased emphasis on financial stability
Output Gap Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Congressional Budget Office
Unemployment Source: NC Labor and Economic Analysis Division
Inflation Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Fed Funds Rate Source: Federal Open Market Committee Materials
Recession Probability
NC Leading Indicators Source: Michael Walden NCSU
NC sector employment growth Source: BLS
Oil’s effect uncertain Source: US EIA
External Sector Slowing Source: International Monetary Fund
Dollar appreciating Source: Fed Board
NC vs. US Employment by Sector Source: BLS, Richmond Fed Bank
Imports and Unemployment Source: BEA and BLS
Technology as a disrupter Oxford Study – 47% of US employment at risk of automation Capital and skill complementary – Accelerating since 1980s driving inequality Substituting capital for labor – Telephone operators – Bank tellers and ATMs
Capital vs. Labor Source: Frey and Osborne
Computerization bottlenecks Source:
Computerization bottlenecks Source: thisismoney.co.uk, Frey and Osborne 2013
Manufacturing is dying... Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Only employment in manufacturing is dying Source: US BEA
US manufacturing productivity Source: US BLS
NC Manufacturing Employment and Output Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
NC then and now Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Regional Outlook in Long Run Faster economic growth than nation’s 2% – Increasing population Income growth – Expected to be faster than national average Median Income US: $53,657 Median Income NC: $46,784 – Substantial uncertainty Education levels Policy uncertainty
Slide Title Source: NC OSBM
NC vs. US Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Traded Sector Local Sector Traded Sector
Source: US Cluster Mapping Project
Thoughts for the future Source: “Employed in Many Things”
US Incorporated self employed Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Thoughts for the future Source: “Employed in Many Things” – Basic accounting and management skills – Personal finance – General skills i.e. programming ideas Technology – 3D printing
Technology Source: playingintheworldgame.files.wordpress.com zdnet.com
Technology Source: cnn.com, techinsider.io, 3dprint.com
Reimagining Source: bikerumor.com
Birthdays Source: Dr. Tim Elmore, thehrintrovert.com, Pillsbury, momspartyrental.com
Thoughts for the future “Employed in Many Things” – Basic accounting and management skills – Personal finance – General skills i.e. programming ideas Technology – 3D printing – Currently lacks skills to effectively use Experiences not products – Customer relationship skills