The Economic Outlook & the Global Financial Crisis Tasmanian Economic Forum Tony McDonald 4 December 2009.

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Presentation transcript:

The Economic Outlook & the Global Financial Crisis Tasmanian Economic Forum Tony McDonald 4 December 2009

2 Outline Pre-crisis Economic & Financial Market Conditions The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis The Policy Response to the Financial Crisis The Economic Outlook Tasmania and the Crisis Medium term challenges and pressures

3 Chart 1: World Economic Growth Source: IMF and Treasury.

4 Chart 2: Merchandise World Trade Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)

5 Chart 3: US & Australia Stock Prices Source: Thomson Reuters

6 Chart 4: Corporate Bond Spreads Note: Find data that shows narrowing of spread, then widening, and then gradual reduction. Source: Bloomberg.

7 Chart 5: Commodity Price Index Note: To be changed to RBA Commodity Price Index Source: Reserve Bank of Australia.

8 Chart 6: Terms of Trade Source: ABS Catalogue Number and Treasury. Note: Only latest forecast needed

9 Chart 7: Industrial Production Note: Other East Asia* excludes Vietnam, Hong Kong, China and Japan. Source: Relevant National Statistical Agencies and Treasury calculations. United Stateseuro area China Other East Asia and Japan

10 Chart 8: IMF 2009 GDP Growth Advanced World Source: International Monetary Fund.

11 Chart 9: IMF research on dynamics of recession and recovery Source: International Monetary Fund. Duration Amplitude

12 Chart 10: Official Cash Rate Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury.

13 Chart 11: Interest Rates Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury.

14 Chart 12: Exchange Rates Source: Reserve Bank of Australia.

15 Chart 13: Composition of stimulus Source: Treasury.

16 Chart 14: Estimated Impact of Stimulus: GDP Source: ABS Catalogue Number and Treasury. Forecasts

17 Chart 15: Estimated Impact of Stimulus: unemployment rate Source: ABS Catalogue Number and Treasury. Forecasts

18 Chart 16: Contribution of fiscal stimulus to GDP Growth Source: Treasury.

19 Chart 17: International Comparison of GDP growth (year to June 2009) Source: International Monetary Fund.

20 Chart 18: Unemployment rate Source: ABS Catalogue Number , Thomson Reuters and Treasury. Note: Need to include OECD average

21 Chart 19: Confidence BusinessesConsumers Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute, National Australia Bank, DX and OECD.

22 Chart 20: Retail Trade in Australia and major advanced economies Source: ABS Catalogue Number and Thomson Reuters.

23 Chart 21: Australian Retail Trade Source: ABS Catalogue Number

24 Chart 22: Construction Work Done Source: ABS Catalogue Number

25 Chart 23: China GDP Source: CEIC China database and Treasury..

26 Chart 24: GDP growth Source: ABS Catalogue Number and Treasury.

27 Chart 25: Domestic Final Demand Source: ABS Catalogue Number and Treasury.

28 Chart 26: Unemployment rate Source: ABS Catalogue Number

29 Chart 27: Trend Unemployment Source: ABS Catalogue Number

30 Chart 28: Gross Household disposable income per capita (current prices) Source: ABS Catalogue Number

31 Chart 29: Employment to Population Ratio Source: ABS Catalogue Number

32 Chart 30: Full Time Employment to Population Ratio Source: ABS Catalogue Number

33 Chart 31: Observed Changes in Rainfall Reliability Source: Bureau of Rural Sciences.

34 Chart 32: Population settlement patterns Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network 2005, Columbia University;and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). Gridded Population of the World,Version 3. Palisades, NY: CIESIN, Columbia University.

35 Chart 33: China, India Convergence Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database, IMF and Treasury.

The Economic Outlook & the Global Financial Crisis Tasmanian Economic Forum Tony McDonald 4 December 2009