WATER RESOURCES DEPARTMENT Successful Implementation of Real Time Stream Flow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation system for Upper Krishna and Bhima sub basins in Maharashtra MR. RAJENDRA PAWAR MR. SANJAY DOIPHODE WATER RESOURCES DEPARTMENT GOVT.OF MAHARASHTRA

BASINS IN MAHARASHTRA NARMADA 1048 sq km WEST WARD FLOWING RIVERS 33,228 Sq km TAPI 51,304 sq km GODAVARI 1,52,811 sq km KRISHNA 69,032 sq km BASINS IN MAHARASHTRA

NEED OF THE SYSTEM Basin experienced flash floods several times during recent years. There are 46 multipurpose reservoirs in the basin which are not specifically designed for flood control, but integrated operation of multiple reservoirs is required for flood management. Flood peaks were moderated by proper reservoir operations, based on the historical data and experience gained. Manual data observation and communication to decision making level results in a considerable time lag, which sometime leaves little time, for flood management. Hence in order to have better flood management tool, it was proposed to develop RTSF & ROS with RTDAS under World Bank aided Hydrology Project –II.

FEATURES OF REAL TIME DATA AQUSITION SYSTEM (RTDAS) 23/08/2013 Installation and commissioning of 249 Real time Hydro meteorological data collection stations with hardware & software to collect and transmit real time data to data center established at Sinchan Bhavan Pune. 127 Automated rainfall stations. 39 Automated Full Climate Stations. 37 Real time River/canal water level stations. 46 Reservoir water Level Sensors. 26 Dams with Spillway Gate Position Sensors (175 sensors) Data is collected and transmitted in real time through VSAT/GSM telemetry to Data center at every 15 minute interval.

Typical Installation of Real Time Full climate data collection station and Radar type Reservoir water level sensor Automated Full Climate Stations : Bhima nagar Automated Reservoir Water Level station :Radhanagari Dam

FEATURES OF REAL TIME STREAMFLOW FORECASTING AND RESERVOIR OPERATION SYSTEM The principal outputs of developed the systems are: Hydrological Knowledge Base System. Short term Forecasting System for reservoirs and river system, using weather forecast and real time data from the RTDAS. A Reservoir Operation Guidance System. User Interface in form of web portal for forecast, Reservoir operations Guidance, Scenarios management, flood warning and dissemination.

MODELLING SYSTEM Modelling system developed in project consist of:- A Hydrological model (Rainfall-Runoff model) for basin. A Hydrodynamic model for river and reservoir system. A real time short term flood forecast model. A river basin water resources simulation model.

Hydrological model NAM (Rainfall-Runoff) Model is used and coupled with the MIKE model, forming part of the integrated modelling system. For simulation basin have been sub divided into 122 sub-catchments. The hydrological model has been calibrated to replicate the historical observed hydrographs on the basis of the historical input. The Krishna- Bhima Hydro met Network with Delineation of sub catchments.

Hydrodynamic model The MIKE 11 hydrodynamic River model takes the rainfall- runoff from the NAM, and carries out a continuous routing of the flows and flood waves through the main rivers and reservoirs. The River schematic with 1550 cross sections and 46 reservoirs in the basin is used for hydrodynamic model. The MIKE 11 Structure operation module simulates the control structures like spillway gates and all types of outlets. The hydrodynamic model is calibrated using time series of year 2006 having Highest historical flood events.

MIKE 11 Model schematic with river network.

Short term flood forecasting model Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) 3 days with 3 hours interval available from IMD/RIMES is used in the model. Converting the forecasted precipitation to runoff hydrographs, the NAM model provides a quantitative response to the weather forecast. MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model, using data assimilation prepares real time stream flow and flood forecasting. Model has three days advance forecasting system. Forecast is done automatically daily at 12.00 noon and 5.00 pm. Model forecasts Inflow, outflow and water levels of reservoirs and water level and discharge in the river at various locations, critical from flood point of view.

Calibrated Models (RR-HD) OVER VIEW OF SHORT TERM FORECASTING SYSTEM RTDAS KBS Historical Data Real Time Data Met Forecasts Calibrated Models (RR-HD) Forecast modelling Data Assimilation USER INTERFACE IN FORM OF WEB PORTAL FOR FORCASTS,ROS GUIDENCE, SCENARIOS MANAGEMENT FLOOD WARNING & DISSEMINATION WEB WEB PC Mobile email & sms

Reservoir Operation Guidance system Short term reservoir operation guidance during floods when an inflow forecast is available from the RTSF&ROS. Long term reservoir operation guidance for round the year water allocation considering all requirements. Seasonal operation of the reservoirs to minimize downstream flooding while considering the need of keeping the reservoirs full at the end of the rainy season. The model can be used in Online and Offline modes. When running in online mode, the results are automatically updated with the short term forecast. While in offline mode it is possible to test various scenarios like rainfall forecast scenario and Reservoir forecast scenarios.

Model forecasting & operation system interface Online or Offline mode Time of Forecast Status line Configuration of Model setup RTSF & ROS batch Jobs MIKE11 tools View Flood Map WEB page Scenario management Dissemination of Results

USER INTERFACE IN FORM OF WEB Portal

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The Real Time Data and Stream flow forecast is made available on website; http://www.rtsfros.com/mahakrishna. Model gives 3 days forecast of rainfall, Reservoirs and rivers water level. This helps to field officers in proper flood monitoring and warning to flood affecting areas well in advance by 72 Hours. During flood situation, using the offline scenario generation facility any type of scenario can be generated before actual release of water from dam to know the probable flood levels on the downstream side of River. This System, is in use from 2013 monsoon and found to be very useful. Due to the available system, ability has been developed in the reservoir operators to act faster before and during floods. There is improved communication and coordination between stake holders of flood management.

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