Beth Turner NOAA/NOS National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research ePOPf Sept 20, 2010

2 “Ecological forecasts predict the effects of biological, chemical, physical, and human-induced changes on ecosystems and their components.” (CENR, 2001) EF provides a mechanism whereby research and observations are transitioned into operational products in an integrated way for management purposes What does it mean to be operational? Backed by authority (quality controlled, liability) With specified uncertainties Delivered on a regular (scheduled) basis What is an Ecological Forecast?

NOAA Next Generation Strategic Plan Objective: Healthy people and communities through improved air and water quality “NOAA will improve modeling and prediction capabilities within an Earth system framework for air and water quality and initiate development of an ecological forecasting system, coupling air, land, water, and sea with biological, geological, chemical, and ecosystem processes” Objective: Improved coastal water quality supporting human health and coastal ecosystem services “NOAA will develop, implement and improve advanced water quality protection programs for nationally significant areas and trust resources, and establish ecological forecasts and early warning networks to improve resource managers’ knowledge of ecological stressors and management effectiveness”

4 Why NOAA? NOAA has a long history of forecasting dating back to the beginning of the weather and national ocean service NOAA is a science forecasting agency that is required by law to produce forecasts of: Weather and climate Tides and water levels Fish stocks recovery Protected resources NOAA ‘s central purpose is the understanding of ocean and atmosphere processes and the application of this understanding to benefit society Understanding and technology have matured to a level allowing some application to ecological issues

5 Ecological Forecasting Integrates NOAA Activities Operational weather and climate observations and forecasting (NWS, NESDIS), Tidal and water level prediction (NOS), Biogeochemical and hydrodynamic modeling (OAR, NOS), Ecological and food web models and observations (NMFS, OAR, NOS), and Social and economic information and models (NMFS, OAR, NOS). Source: Fig 1 from Fiskel, Sustainability: Science, Practice, & Policy 2(2):14–21.

Creating a NOAA-Wide Ecological Forecasting System Lack of a framework for the long-term application/operation of ecological forecasts has become a major issue leading to:  “Orphaned” forecast products – wasted development  “Blocked pipeline” for new products – backlog  “Backbone” capabilities not utilized – lost leveraging  “Ad hoc” development – inefficiency  “Holistic” management not achieved – lack of integration Problems will only accelerate as field matures and management demand increases

How to develop end-to- end capability from research to operation/application? Cross-NOAA integration NOAA – External collaborations

Ecological Forecasting: Scales of Application Days Months Seasons Years Frequency of Forecast Spatial Extent of Forecast Weeks GlobalRegionalLocal Larval Pathways Trajectory-Based Forecasts Beach Advisories HABs/Shellfish Closures Hypoxia Formation Habitat Migration Disease Transmission Linked Phys-Biol Model-Based Forecasts Scenario-Based Forecasts Invasive Spread Species Abundance Resource Recovery Exposure Risk Ecosystem Change Climate Impacts Spill Response Marine Spatial Planning

9 Precipitation forecast Runoff forecast Nutrient loading forecast Coastal hypoxia forecast Ecological impacts Social and Economic impacts Example: Coastal Hypoxia Ecological Forecast Legislation: HABHRCA Complex issue crossing several sectors (farming, fishing, land management, coastal management) Impacts are felt far from source of nutrients Requires large-scale synthetic view provided by modeling More scenario-based

Example: Sea Nettles in Chesapeake Bay Chrysaora quinquecirrha Stinging jellyfish, biotic nuisance problems for recreation and clogging of intake pipes of power plants Maps of probable sea nettle presence by identifying locations where the current T/S conditions are favorable to sea nettles Data derived from NOAA satellite observations Sea nettle forecast incorporates daily output from the Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS) to provide the temperature and salinity ranges Forecast in process of transition through NWS process Linked to NWS field office websites

Example: Harmful Algal Blooms Gulf of Mexico NOAA currently issues a HAB bulletin to alert coastal managers in Florida to the potential for a HAB event Efforts are underway in Texas and the Gulf of Maine to transition research models and forecasts into forecasts that will be useful to coastal communities and shellfish managers Because HAB species differ in different areas of the country, a forecasting system must be flexible enough to allow for different approaches to incorporate their ecology and life history characteristics into a forecasting capability.

12 Develop Generalized Concept of Operations

Challenges to be met: understanding complex physical, biological, chemical and behavioral interactions; acquiring and assimilating adequate and representative observational and process data; testing and validating standard models; characterizing uncertainty in probabilistic forecasts; and providing adequate support to sustain operations.  Understanding complex physical, biological, chemical and behavioral interactions;  Acquiring and assimilating adequate and representative observational and process data;  Developing, testing and validating standard models;  Characterizing uncertainty in probabilistic forecasts;  Providing adequate support to sustain operations;  Training and retention of forecast personnel.

Potential roles for IOOS in EFS  Improved access to data in common formats and standards (metadata, transport, data content, and quality)  Establish data standards that will facilitate integration and interoperability  Development of specialized sensors for EF applications, maintenance of sensors on IOOS platforms  Data and model output visualization techniques  Model development and refinement  Test beds or quasi-operational forecasting activities  Outreach to regional stakeholders through R.A.s  Coordination with NOAA regional teams  Place-based forecaster/analyst co-located with R.A.s?