Fifth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) April 2014, Pune, India Activities of SMRC related to Monsoon and SASCOF Md. Abdul Mannan 1,2 1 SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2 Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Dhaka, Bangladesh

South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC) Dhaka, Bangladesh Map may not reflect actual political boundaries

Programmes of SMRC As per the 17 th Meeting of the Governing Board (GB) of SMRC, Dhaka, September 2011) the Programmes of SMRC has been divided Into the following thematic areas:  Monsoon Initiatives  Severe Thunderstorm  Tropical Cyclones and  Climate Change. SAARC

SAARC Monsoon Initiative The 16 th SAARC Summit (Thimphu, Bhutan, April 2010) adopted the Thimphu Statement on Climate Change and agreed to undertake : “Commission a SAARC Inter-governmental Monsoon Initiative on the evolving pattern of monsoons to assess vulnerability due to climate change to be supported by the SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC)” SAARC

Goal: The SAARC Inter-Governmental Monsoon Initiative aims- to provide a platform comprising of all SAARC Member States for the enhancement of the capability to predict and assess existing vulnerability of monsoon system in conjunction with climate change and to take proper adaptation and mitigation measures through regular and sustained interaction among the Member States early warning providers and users at National and regional levels. SAARC SAARC Monsoon Initiative: Terms of Reference

SAARC SAARC Monsoon Initiative: Terms of Reference Objectives:  Assessing existing vulnerability of monsoon system in conjunction with climate change up to community levels using state of the art technology and research for advance understanding and foster dialogue with professionals and policy-makers in national and regional levels for proper adaptation connecting regional and global aspects of climate change.  Institutionalize national participation in a coordinated regional system to evaluate potential impacts of monsoon system and develop a plan of action in response to the Monsoon outlooks and climate forecast.  Providing a platform for inter-agency coordination of policies, sectoral plans and programmes for dealing with potential impacts of monsoon system at National and regional levels.

SAARC SAARC Monsoon Initiative: Terms of Reference Activities: The SAARC Inter-Governmental Monsoon Initiative will carry out the following activities: 1. Establish proper monitoring of monsoon system with space-based and in-situ observation with a wide coverage. 2. Enhance the capacity of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in terms of provision of accurate early warnings, long range weather and climate forecasts. 3. Capacity development of stake holders and users for the integration of weather and climate information for application into operation and practice, development of policies, plans and laws. 4. Linkage to the South Asians Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) and other Regional and International Climate Centres.

Output: The output of the SAARC Inter-governmental Monsoon Initiative will include the following: 1. Preparedness plan for every monsoon season based on the forecast and outlooks given by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of Member States, Climate Outlook Forum and Regional and International Climate Centres and other inputs based on the vulnerability assessment of monsoon system. 2. Specific recommendations on how to improve the Inter-Governmental coordination and collaboration for strengthening weather and climate forecasting system at the regional and National levels. 3. Long-term policy recommendations and action plans on how to better manage the risks and opportunities related to the monsoon system in South Asia. SAARC SAARC Monsoon Initiative: Terms of Reference

Selection of Focal Person In order to proceed with the ToRs as per recommendation of the 17 th Meeting of the Governing Board of SMRC (Dhaka, September 2011) and as per approval by the SAARC Programming Committee, SMRC prepared the list of Focal Persons/Experts for “Commissioning of SAARC Inter- governmental Monsoon Initiative”. The selected focal persons are from the following organizations: All National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of SAARC Member Countries Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India SAARC Disaster Management Centre (SDMC), New Delhi, India International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, Nepal SAARC Agriculture Centre (SAC), Dhaka, Bangladesh SAARC

Preparation of Road Map The First Meeting of the Focal Persons/Experts was organized at SMRC, Dhaka (during May 2012) to discuss the ways and modes for “Commissioning of SAARC Inter-governmental Monsoon Initiative”. The meeting prepared a road map for SAARC Monsoon Initiative Programme and suggested several recommendations including establishment of two regional working groups and one national working group. The National Working Group for each Member State should be formed where NMHS shall act as nodal agencies and the stakeholders will be active members of the Committee. The meeting also recommended to implement Monsoon Initiative Programme in two phases initially. However, the committee felt that it is a continuing process to implement and to make further development to Integrated Operational System (IOS) in tune with advancement of science and technology. SAARC

Preparation of Road Map Phase-I: This phase may continue during the year with the activities of data collection, processing and analysis by NMHSs of SAARC Member States, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), India, Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES), Thailand, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh. Phase-II: This phase may continue during the year with the continuation of data collection, processing & analysis, in- depth research and publication of comprehensive reports by SMRC in collaboration with NMHSs. SAARC

Re-consideration of Road Map As per recommendation of the 18 th Meeting of the Governing Board of SMRC (Dhaka, September 2012), the Second Meeting of the Focal Persons/Experts for SAARC Monsoon Initiative Programme was convened in Dhaka on April 2013 to reconsider the road map for SAARC Monsoon Initiative Programme. The Second Meeting reconsidered the recommendations and road map prepared during the First Meeting of Focal Points/ Experts (Dhaka, May 2012) in the light of the terms of reference of SAARC Monsoon Initiative and chalked out Work Plan for for the implementation of SAARC Monsoon Initiative Programme in two phases (Phase-I: & Phase-II: ) for placing an Integrated Operational System (IOS) For establishment of IOS, the meeting reviewed its earlier proposal regarding need of working groups at regional and national levels and recommended for the establishment of the following working groups:  SAARC Working Group on Monsoon (SWGM) at regional level  National Working Groups on Monsoon (NWGM) in all SAARC Member States. SAARC

Meetings of SWGM and NWGM-2013 As per the recommendation of the 18 th Meeting of the GB (12-13 September 2012), a two-day meeting on the SAARC Working Group on Monsoon was held in Colombo, Sri Lanka during December Further, as per recommendation of the 18 th Meeting of the Governing Board of SMRC, SMRC supported NMHSs of Member States for organizing the meetings of their respective National Working Groups in their respective Countries and it was held in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Pakistan and India in SAARC

Meetings of SWGM and NWGM-2014 As per the recommendation of the 19 th Meeting of the GB (1-2 October 2013), A two-day Meeting of SWGM and a two-day Seminar on SAARC Monsoon Initiative will be held back-to-back at Pune, India in The meeting of SWGM and seminar shall be attended by the Experts from NMHSs of Member States and the relevant collaborating institutes and centres (e.g. SDMC-New Delhi, IITM-Pune, ICIMOD-Nepal, and SAC-Dhaka), while the representatives of national stakeholders of NMHSs shall only attend the Seminars on SAARC Monsoon Initiative. Further, SMRC will provide modest support to the NMHSs of SAARC Member States for organizing the meetings of NWGM in their respective countries before and after the Southwest Monsoon in SAARC

Research Programmes under SAARC Monsoon Programme Analysis of Precipitation Intensity and its Trend in SAARC Region using in-situ and Satellite data (continue) Diagnostic Studies of High Impact Weather Events over SAARC region using Reanalysis data and high resolution WRF model Seasonal Forecasting over SAARC Region Study of the behaviour of monsoon related Extreme precipitation Events (Heavy rainfall) over SAARC Region Development of Drought Monitoring & Prediction Systems for Sri Lanka Influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Monsoonal rainfall in SAARC Region. SAARC

Seasonal weather forecasting at SMRC SMRC is trying to enhance Seasonal Weather Forecasting among the SAARC Member Countries. In this process, Seasonal Weather Forecasting using Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) has been introduced in Department of Hydro-Met Services (DHMS) of Bhutan. Accordingly, DHMS, Bhutan is providing Seasonal Weather Forecast for Bhutan regularly. Additionally, Research on seasonal weather forecasting for the SAARC Member Countries is being carried out by the respective SMRC scientists. In this process, a report has been published by SMRC (SMRC Report no. 49, December 2013). SAARC

Organizing Training Workshop on Seasonal Weather Prediction Title: Two Weeks Training Course on Seasonal Weather Prediction for SAARC Region Duration: 1-12 June 2014 Collaborating with all SAARC Member Countries Resource Person from SAARC Region: IMD of India, PMD of Pakistan, IITM, Pune, India. Resource Person from outside of SAARC region. SAARC

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