Global Warming Status 1. Knowledge Gap Between - What is Understood (science) - What is Known (public/policymakers) 2. Planetary Emergency - Climate Inertia  Warming in Pipeline - Tipping Points  Could Lose Control 3. Good News & Bad News - Safe Level of CO 2 < 350 ppm - Multiple Benefits of Solution

Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly (◦C) Base Period = , Global Mean = 0.54

Basis of Understanding 1. Earth’s Paleoclimate History 2. On-Going Climate Changes 3. Climate Models

Earth’s history provides important information on global warming. Recorded human history occurs within the Holocene warm period.

CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203,

CO 2,CH 4 and estimated global temperature (Antarctic ΔT/2 in ice core era) 0 = mean. Source: Hansen, Clim. Change, 68, 269, 2005.

Cenozoic Era End of Cretaceous (65 My BP)Present Day

Fig. 1

Summary: Cenozoic Era 1. Dominant Forcing: Natural ΔCO 2 - Rate ~100 ppm/My ( ppm/year) - Human-made rate today: ~2 ppm/year Humans Overwhelm Slow Geologic Changes 2. Climate Sensitivity High - Antarctic ice forms if CO 2 < ~450 ppm - Ice sheet formation reversible Humans Could Produce “A Different Planet”

Metrics for “Dangerous” Change Extermination of Animal & Plant Species 1. Extinction of Polar and Alpine Species 2. Unsustainable Migration Rates Ice Sheet Disintegration: Global Sea Level 1. Long-Term Change from Paleoclimate Data 2. Ice Sheet Response Time Regional Climate Disruptions 1. Increase of Extreme Events 2. Shifting Zones/Freshwater Shortages

Arctic sea ice area at summer minimum.

Arctic Sea Ice Criterion* 1. Restore Planetary Energy Balance  CO 2 : 385 ppm  ppm 2. Restore Sea Ice: Aim for -0.5 W/m 2 CO 2 : 385 ppm  ppm Range based on uncertainty in present planetary energy imbalance (between 0.5 and 1 W/m 2 ) * Assuming near-balance among non-CO 2 forcings

Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff, CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder Greenland Total Melt Area – 2007 value exceeds last maximum by 10%

Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaft carrying water to ice sheet base. Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK) Surface Melt on Greenland

Jakobshavn Ice Stream in Greenland Discharge from major Greenland ice streams is accelerating markedly. Source: Prof. Konrad Steffen, Univ. of Colorado

Greenland Mass Loss – From Gravity Satellite

Sea Level Criterion* 1. Prior Interglacial Periods  CO 2 <~ 300 ppm 2. Cenozoic Era  CO 2 <~ 300 ppm 3. Ice Sheet Observations  CO 2 < 385 ppm * Assuming near-balance among non-CO 2 forcings

Subtropics expected to expand with global warming. Observations show 4 degrees of latitude expansion. Pier on Lake Mead

Fires Are Increasing World-Wide Source: Westerling et al Western US area burned Wildfires in Western US have increased 4-fold in 30 years.

Rongbuk Glacier Rongbuk glacier in 1968 (top) and The largest glacier on Mount Everest’s northern slopes feeds Rongbuk River.

Coral Reef off Fiji (Photo: Kevin Roland) Stresses on Coral Reefs

Assessment of Target CO 2 Phenomenon Target CO 2 (ppm) 1. Arctic Sea Ice Ice Sheets/Sea Level Shifting Climatic Zones Alpine Water Supplies Avoid Ocean Acidification  Initial Target CO 2 = 350* ppm *assumes CH 4, O 3, Black Soot decrease

Target CO 2 : < 350 ppm To preserve creation, the planet on which civilization developed

The fraction of CO 2 remaining in the air, after emission by fossil fuel burning, declines rapidly at first, but 1/3 remains in the air after a century and 1/5 after a millennium (Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7, , 2007).

Coal phase-out by 2030  peak CO2 ~ ppm, depending on oil/gas Faster return below 350 ppm requires additional actions

Initial Target CO 2 : 350 ppm Technically Feasible (but not if business-as-usual continues) Quick Coal Phase-Out Critical (long lifetime of atmospheric CO 2 ) (must halt construction of any new coal plants that do not capture & store CO 2 )

What’s the Solution? (Not Carbon Cap or % Target!!!) 1. Coal Emissions Phase-Out UK, US, Germany Should Lead 2. Carbon Price & 100% Dividend For Fundamental Transformations Avoid Unconventional Fossil Fuels

Carbon Tax & 100% Dividend 1. Tax Grows (esp. when fuel costs fall) - on oil/gas/coal at mine or port of entry 2. Entire Tax Returned in Equal Shares - deposited monthly in bank accounts 3. Limited Government Role - keep hands off money! - eliminate fossil subsidies - let marketplace choose winners

Priorities 1. Energy Efficiency Standards & Carbon Tax Needed 2. Renewable Energies Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Biomass… 3. Electric Grid 4. 4 th Generation Nuclear Power Integral Fast Reactor Liquid Flouride Thermal Reactor 5. Carbon Capture & Sequestration Adds Cost, Problems Remain

Web Site includes Target Atmospheric CO 2 : Where Should Humanity Aim? Global Warming Twenty Years Later: Tipping Points Near In Defence of Kingsnorth Six

Intergenerational Conflict Intergenerational inequity and injustice is the result, affecting the young and unborn. ‘Did not know’ defense of prior generations no longer viable. Ethical and legal liability questions raised by actions that deceived the public. Continued failure of political process (not even available to young and unborn) may cause increasing public protests.

Climate Change Protest at Kingsnorth Power Station Greenpeace activists on the painted chimney October Photograph: Will Rose/Greenpeace

Huw Williams, Kevin Drake, Ben Stewart, Tim Hewke, Emily Hall and Will Rose outside Maidstone Crown Court. Photograph: Jiri Rezac/Greenpeace Kingsnorth Six: Not Guilty

Estimates of global temperature change inferred from Antarctic ice cores and ocean sediment cores for a period allowing Holocene temperature to be apparent.

Solar Activity 2001 (Solar Maximum)2008 (Solar Minimum)

Global and low latitude surface temperature at seasonal resolution. Nino 3.4 index shows strength of tropical El Nino/La Ninas. Green triangles are major volcanoes

Key Elements in Transformation Low-Loss Electric Grid Clean Energy by 2020 (West) & 2030 Allows Renewable Energy Ascendancy Carbon Tax and 100% Dividend Tax at First Sale of Coal/Oil/Gas Tax Can Rise & Spur Transformations “100% or Fight! No Alligator-Shoes!”

Climate forcing agents in the industrial era. “Effective” forcing accounts for “efficacy” of the forcing mechanism Source: Hansen et al., JGR, 110, D18104, 2005.