Taking a Long View of Economic Growth Potential: Some Numbers and Implications The Global Institute Conferences Second Annual China-Russia Conference in Moscow, October 13-14, 2006 Johannes Linn, Wolfensohn Center for Development The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC

2 Selected Large Economies: Projected GDP (in 2005 US$ trillions) China: largest economy past 2040 Russia: in 2050 greater than individual EU countries, 1/3 EU, 1/5 India, 1/6 US, 1/8 China, smaller than Brazil and Mexico Source: Goldman Sachs December 2005 ChinaRussiaIndiaBrazilJapanGermFranceItalyUKEU4US

3 Selected Large Economies: Projected GDP Growth (in % per year) ChinaRussiaIndiaBrazilJapanGermFranceItalyUKEU4US (1.7) (1.3) (1.5)2.6 Drivers: Population growth, catch-up potential, past growth and expected policy performance China ranked 53, Russia 81 of 170 countries in terms of policy performance Source: Goldman Sachs December 2005

4 G8 versus Non-G8: Projected GDP (in 2005 US$ trillions for largest 22 economies) G8Non-G8G8/Non-G G8 summits increasingly obsolete as global steering group An expanded summit forum (e.g. G20) much more appropriate (some 90% of world GDP) Source: Goldman Sachs December 2005

5 Eurasia versus Non-Eurasia: Projected GDP (in 2005 US$ trillions for largest 22 economies) EurasiaNon-EurasiaEurasia/Non-G Eurasia defined to include all of Europe and Asia Eurasian GDP 1/3 larger than Non-Eurasian in 2005, 2/3 in 2025 and double by 2050 Eurasian economic integration likely a key feature of continued globalization process Source: Goldman Sachs December 2005