OILSEED, CORN & WHEAT OUTLOOK: 2016/17 Jonn Slette Senior Attache United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Service

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Presentation transcript:

OILSEED, CORN & WHEAT OUTLOOK: 2016/17 Jonn Slette Senior Attache United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Service Presented for GLOBAL GRAIN, FOOD & FEED 2016 (G2F2)

Sluggish Global Economic Growth Macro-Economic Indicators

Sluggish Global Economic Growth Strengthening Dollar Macro-Economic Indicators

Sluggish Global Economic Growth Strengthening Dollar Lower Petroleum Price Continued Burdensome Stock Levels

Macro-Economic Indicators Sluggish Global Economic Growth Strengthening Dollar Low Petroleum Price Continued Burdensome Stock Levels Agricultural Commodity Prices Falling in General

Meat Demand Growth Focused in Developing Countries Source: USDA Production, Supply & Distribution Database

… which leads to rising feed demand Source: USDA Production, Supply & Distribution Database

Area of feed crop expanding much faster than food crop Source: USDA Production, Supply & Distribution Database South America leads in soybean area increase, while corn acreage surpasses rice in East Asia

Yet, production shortfall of feed ingredients projected to deepen in developing countries… …which will have to increasingly rely on imports Source: OECD-FAO Outlook, 2015

Production Trend to Slow in 2016

Global Consumption to Trend Higher

Stock Building to End in 2016

China, ROW are Global Growth Markets

Corn Global Production and Consumption About in Balance

Corn Global Ending Stocks are Large; China Accounts for Half; U.S. at 29-year High

Large Stocks Pressure Corn Prices

Global Wheat Production Exceeds Consumption MMT

Wheat Prices Under Pressure by Large Supplies $/MT FOB

Wild Cards Policies Argentina Russia China Southern Hemisphere Production Argentina Australia Wheat Brazil Argentina Corn and oilseed