9-1 ELC 347 project management Day 19

Agenda Integrative Project –Part 4 Due –Part 5 Due Nov 24 (page 342) –Any of the first five sections can be resubmitted for rescoring prior to finals week. The recorded score will the average of the original score and the score on the resubmitted section. Assignment 6 Partially Corrected Assignment 7 Posted Today will discuss Project Scheduling: Networks, Duration Estimation, and Critical Path

Schedule for rest of semester Nov 10 –Chap 9 –IP part 4 Due Nov 13 –Chap 10 Nov 17 –Chap 11 –Assignment 7 due Nov 20 –Group work Nov 24 –Quiz 3 –IP part 5 Due Dec 1 –Project s 5 & 6 Dec 4 –Group Work –Assignment 8 due Dec 8 –Chap 12 –IP Part 6 due Dec 11 –Chap 13 & 14 Dec 10 AM –Quiz 4 –IP Project’s due 6-3© 2007 Prentice-Hall, Inc

9-4 Project Scheduling: Networks, Duration Estimation, and Critical Path Chapter 9 © 2007 Pearson Education

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Writing a paper Writing a research paper –Identify Topic –Research Paper –Write First Draft –Edit and rewrite paper –Prepare Class presentation –Complete Final Draft –Complete presentation –Hand-in paper and present topic in class Can this process be completed differently if assigned as group work? 9-6

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9-8 Project Scheduling Terms Successors Predecessors Network diagram Serial activities Concurrent activities E D C B A F Merge activities Burst activities Node Path Critical Path Float Resource limited Forward pass Backward pass ES LS EF LF

9-9 Network Diagrams Show interdependence Facilitate communication Help schedule resources Identify critical activities Determine project completion Show start & finish dates

9-10 AOA Vs. AON The same mini-project is shown with activities on arc… C E D B F E C D B F …and activities on node.

9-11 Node Labels Early Start Activity Float Activity Descriptor Late Start ID Number Activity Duration Late Finish Early Finish Basic math ES + DUR = EF LS + DUR = LF ES+AF=LS

9-12 CPM versus PERT PERT was developed by US Navy in the 1950s’ CPM was developed by Remington Rand and DuPont around the same time. Only difference is in durations estimating –Pert uses 3 cases Most optimistic, most pessimistic and most likely and determines probability for each D o P o + D p O p +D e P e = final duration –CPM use only the most likely duration

9-13 Duration Estimating Duration – the elapsed time from the start of an activity until it is finished Effort -- the actual time spent on the project Example –Tony work on a project task for 20 hours at 4 hours per day starting Monday mourning. The project task was completed Late Friday Effort – 20 hours Duration – 5 days

9-14 Techniques for Estimating Duration Experience Historical data Research Modeling Experiments Breakdown/roll-up Delphi Method –Panel of experts Consultants Three outside Estimates Ranging Other techniques

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9-16 Duration Estimation Methods Past experience Expert opinion Mathematical derivation – Beta distribution –Most likely (m) –Most pessimistic (b) –Most optimistic (a)

9-17 TaskPredecessoramb Z YZ XZ WY, X VW1413 TW61014 ST, V Sketch the network described in the table. 2.Determine the expected duration and variance of each activity. Duration estimate.xls

9-18 Constructing the Critical Path Forward pass – an additive move through the network from start to finish –Determines ES and EF using ES+DUR = EF –If 2 (or more) EF from proceeding uses largest Backward pass – a subtractive move through the network from finish to start –Determines LS and LF using LF- DUR = LS –If 2 (or more) LS from succeeding use smallest –Determine AF using LS-ES = AF Critical path – the longest path from end to end which determines the shortest project length

9-19 Rules for Forward/Backward Pass Forward Pass Rules (ES & EF) –ES + Duration = EF –EF of predecessor = ES of successor –Largest preceding EF at a merge point becomes EF for successor Backward Pass Rules (LS & LF) –LF – Duration = LS –LS of successor = LF of predecessor –Smallest succeeding LS at a burst point becomes LF for predecessor

9-20 Calculating a Project Duration Determine each activity and its predecessors Determine an estimated duration for each activity Find the “Critical Path” –Add up the durations along the critical path

9-21 Whats the “Critical Path” The longest path based on precedence of activities and durations through a PERT/CPM network It’s critical because –Its combined length determines the length of the project –It has NO slack –Delay of any activities on the critical path delays the entire project

9-22 Finding the critical path Use “forward pass” Calculations Each activity should have –ES  earliest possible Start time –EF  earliest possible finish time –DUR  duration –EF = ES + DUR ESDUREF Activity

9-23 Example 347 A 7512 B

9-24 Special Case If an activity has more than one processor its EPS is set to the latest EPF of all its processors 347 A 7512 C 055 B

9-25 An example of forward pass 000 Start F 044 D C Finish 055 A I J 448 E H G 549 B

9-26 Backwards Pass Use to calculate Slack –LS -> Latest start time –LF -> Latest finish time –TS -> total slack ESDUREF Activity LSTSLF

9-27 An example of backward pass 000 Start F D C Finish A I J E H G B

9-28 TaskPredecessorTime A--4 BA9 CA11 DB5 EB3 FC7 GD, F3 HE, G2 KH1 1.Sketch the network described in the table. 2.Determine the ES, LS, EF, LF, and slack of each activity SLACK.xls cp.mpp

9-29 Examine Critical Path for Reality Check Is the total duration typical? Are the durations of the CP activities typical? Reexamine all CP activity durations Reexamine assumptions

9-30 Laddering Activities Project ABC can be completed more efficiently if subtasks are used A(3)B(6)C(9) ABC=18 days Laddered ABC=12 days A 1 (1)A 2 (1)A 3 (1) B 1 (2)B 2 (2)B 3 (2) C 1 (3)C 2 (3)C 3 (3)

9-31 Hammock Activities Used as summaries for subsets of activities 0 A B C Hammock Useful with a complex project or one that has a shared budget

9-32 Reducing the Critical Path Eliminate tasks on the CP Convert serial paths to parallel when possible Overlap sequential tasks Shorten the duration on critical path tasks Shorten –early tasks –longest tasks –easiest tasks –tasks that cost the least to speed up