John Ellis The SUSY Marathon: LHC Run 1 and beyond The first big LHC discovery The second big LHC discovery?

Elementary Higgs or Composite? Higgs field: ≠ 0 Quantum loop problems Fermion-antifermion condensate Just like QCD, BCS superconductivity New technicolour force? -Heavy scalar resonance? -Pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone? Cut-off Λ ~ 1 TeV with Supersymmetry? Cutoff Λ = 10 TeV

Higgs Mass Updates from ATLAS and CMS: –CMS: ± 0.4 ± 0.2 GeV from ZZ* –ATLAS: 2-σ! Basic parameter of SM: –Measure it! Crucial for stability of electroweak vacuum

Global Analysis of Higgs-like Models Rescale couplings: to bosons by a, to fermions by c Standard Model: a = c = 1 JE & Tevong You, arXiv: b bbarτ γ W Z Global No evidence for deviation from SM

No BSM? Beware Historical Hubris "So many centuries after the Creation, it is unlikely that anyone could find hitherto unknown lands of any value” - Spanish Royal Commission, rejecting Christopher Columbus proposal to sail west, < 1492 “The more important fundamental laws and facts of physical science have all been discovered” – Albert Michelson, 1894 "There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now. All that remains is more and more precise measurement" - Lord Kelvin, 1900 “Is the End in Sight for Theoretical Physics?” – Stephen Hawking, 1980

« Empty » space is unstable Dark matter Origin of matter Masses of neutrinos Hierarchy problem Inflation Quantum gravity … The Standard Model Is Not Enough SUSY

Craig

What else is there? Supersymmetry Stabilize electroweak vacuum Successful prediction for Higgs mass –Should be < 130 GeV in simple models Successful predictions for couplings –Should be within few % of SM values Naturalness, dark matter, GUTs, string, … New motivations From LHC Run 1

Theoretical Constraints on Higgs Mass Large M h → large self-coupling → blow up at low-energy scale Λ due to renormalization Small: renormalization due to t quark drives quartic coupling < 0 at some scale Λ → vacuum unstable Vacuum could be stabilized by Supersymmetry Degrassi, Di Vita, Elias-Miro, Giudice, Isodori & Strumia, arXiv: ±1.3 GeV

Vacuum Instability in the Standard Model Very sensitive to m t as well as M H Instability scale: m t = ± 1.0 GeV  log 10 (Λ/GeV) = 10.3 ± 1.3 Buttazzo, Degrassi, Giardino, Giudice, Sala, Salvio & Strumia, arXiv: LHCP New CMS New D0

Instability during Inflation? Do inflation fluctuations drive us over the hill? Then Fokker-Planck evolution Do AdS regions eat us? –Disaster if so –If not, OK if more inflation Cure with non-ren’ble operator? Hook, Kearns, Shakya & Zurek: arXiv:

MSSM Higgs Masses & Couplings Lightest Higgs mass up to ~ 130 GeV Heavy Higgs masses quite close Consistent With LHC Is a lighter Higgs still waiting?

Predictions of current best fits in simple SUSY models Current uncertainties in SM calculations [LHC Higgs WG] Comparisons with –LHC –HL-LHC –ILC –TLEP (= FCC-ee) (Able to distinguish from SM) Higgs Coupling Measurements

Craig

Search with ~ 8 TeV

p-value of simple models ~ 5% (also SM) /fb Scan of CMSSM Buchmueller, JE et al: arXiv: Constrained MSSM

Confronted with likelihood analysis of CMSSM LHC Reach for CMSSM Susy O. Buchmueller, JE, K. de Vries et al.

5 1 20/fb 2012 Squark mass CMSSM Favoured values of squark mass also significantly above pre-LHC, > 1.6 TeV Buchmueller, JE et al: arXiv: Reach of LHC at High luminosity Constrained MSSM

5 1 20/fb 2012 CMSSM Favoured values of gluino mass significantly above pre-LHC, > 1.8 TeV Buchmueller, JE et al: arXiv: Gluino mass CMSSM Reach of LHC at High luminosity Constrained MSSM

20/fb Buchmueller, JE et al: in preparation 2012 NUHM1 NUHM2 Parameter space opens up at large masses Models with 1 or 2 non-universal Higgs masses

5 1 20/fb 2012 CMSSM Comparison of MSSM Variants CMSSM NUHM1 Favoured values of squark mass also significantly above pre-LHC, > 1.6 TeV Squark mass Buchmueller, JE et al: in preperation Reach of LHC at High luminosity NUHM2

5 1 20/fb 2012 CMSSM NUHM1NUHM2 Gluino mass Reach of LHC at High luminosity Favoured values of gluino mass significantly above pre-LHC, > 1.8 TeV Buchmueller, JE et al: arXiv: in preparation Comparison of MSSM Variants

Where May CMSSM be Hiding? Relic density constraint, assuming neutralino LSP JE, Olive & Zheng: arXiv: Stop coannihilation strip Stau coannihilation strip Excluded by b  s γ, B s  μ + μ - Excluded by ATLAS Jest + MET search Excluded because stau or stop LSP LHC 300 HE-LHC LHC 3000

Exploring the Stau Coannihilation Strip Disappearing tracks, missing-energy + jets, massive metastable charged particles Desai, JE, Luo & Marrouche: arXiv: Present sensitivity Present sensitivity Prospective sensitivity of LHC Run II Will be covered By LHC Run II

Imposing dark matter density constraint Focus-point strip: –A 0 ~ 0, large m 0 /m 1/2 Extends to m 1/2 ~ 4 TeV Neutralino has Higgsino mixture Truncated by m h What Parts of High-Mass CMSSM Parameter Space are Allowed? O. Buchmueller, JE, K. Olive et al. HE-LHC LHC 3000 LHC 300 LHC 8 TeV

Possible Future Circular Colliders Exploration of the 10 TeV scale Direct (100 TeV pp) + Indirect (e + e - )

cf, LEP and LHC “Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it…” –Edmund Burke “… and maybe also those who do.” LEP: Precision Z studies, W+W-, search for Higgs, anything else LHC: search for Higgs, anything else FCC-ee, -pp together: 50 years of physics ✔ ✖ ✔ ?

Let us dream that LHC discovers supersymmetry LHC Reach for CMSSM Susy

Precision FCC-ee Measurements Precision Higgs Precision Electroweak

Estimate of (m 0, m 1/2 ) in CMSSM on basis of precision H measurements with low-mass best-fit central values O. Buchmueller, JE, K. de Vries et al. Impact of FCC-ee Precision H on CMSSM

Estimate of (m 0, m 1/2 ) in CMSSM on basis of precision Z measurements with low-mass best-fit central values Impact of FCC-ee Precision Z on CMSSM O. Buchmueller, JE, K. de Vries et al.

One-dimensional likelihood functions in CMSSM if precision measurements with low-mass best-fit central values: compare masses with LHC measurements, Test SUSY at the loop level Impact of FCC-ee Precision on CMSSM O. Buchmueller, JE, K. de Vries et al.

Limited range compatible with m h Exploring the Focus-Point Strip O. Buchmueller, JE et al.

Exploring the Stop Coannihilation Strip Present light stop searches reach m stop ~250 GeV Future LHC runs should reach m χ =m stop ~500 GeV Unfinished business for Future Circular Collider? JE, Olive & Zheng: arXiv: LHC 300 HE-LHC LHC 3000

Compatible with LHC measurement of m h May extend to m χ = m stop ~ 6500 GeV Exploring the Stop Coannihilation Strip LHC 300 (monojets), MET LHC 8TeV LHC 3000 (monojets), MET HE-LHC (monojets), MET 100 TeV (monojets), MET

Theoretical Confusion High mortality rate among theories (M H, M t ) close to stability bound Split SUSY? High-scale SUSY? Modify/abandon naturalness? Does Nature care? String landscape? SUSY anywhere better than nowhere SUSY could not explain the hierarchy New ideas needed!

Introduction Standard Model Particles: Years from Proposal to Discovery Lovers of SUSY: be patient!