ADDITIONAL MITIGATION ACTIONS AND INVESTMENTS IN BRAZIL UP TO 2030 (IES-BRASIL)

Sectorial GHG Emissions in Brazil–

THE SCENARIOS TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE RESULTS: The scenarios are exploratory, not normative, and not forecasts of the most probable future They are resultant of a series of premises chosen by the experts and researchers involved in a participative manner The Governmental Plan Scenario (GPS) was strongly based on the long-term National Energy Plan 2050 GPS is NOT a least-cost scenario and NOT a BAU, already includes strong mitigation policies GOVERNMENT PLAN SCENARIO (GPS) MEASURES ALREADY BEING IMPLEMENTED UNDER THE NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE PLAN ADDITIONAL MITIGATION 1 (MA1&MA1+T) EXPANSION OF MEASURES CONSIDERED IN THE CPG, AND ADDITIONAL MEASURES COSTING UP TO US$20 MtCO 2 e ADDITIONAL MITIGATION 2 (MA2&MA2+T) EARLY IMPLEMENTATION OR EXPANSION OF MEASURES FROM MA1, AND ADDITIONAL MEASURES COSTING UP TO US$100 MtCO 2 e

PREMISES 2030 ACROSS ALL SCENARIOS GOVERNMENTAL PLAN SCENARIO WORLD POPULATION: 8.3 BILLION BRAZILIAN POPULATION: 223 MILLION WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH: 3.2% p.a. EXCHANGE RATE: 2.2 BRL/US$ (2005 constant) OIL PRICE: US$85/BARREL (US$ 2012 constant) GROWTH OF GDP: 3.9% GROWTH OF GDP PER CAPITA: 3.6% INVESTMENT/GDP: 21% TRADE SURPLUS ~ 0

5 75% do potencial de abatimento apresenta custo abaixo de 20 US$/tCO2e MARGINAL ABATEMENT COSTS CURVE

GHG AVOIDED EMISSIONS, (MtCO 2 e) Mitigation Actions / Sectors MA1 MA1+T MA2 MA2+T AFOLU Agiculture + Cattle Raising Planted Forests Charcoal from afforestation schemes Atlantic Forest Restoration 941,6 ENERGY EFFICIENCY Buildings Oil Refineries, Steel and cement Industries Urban Transport Optimization 42.2 Light vehicles Heavy vehicles Mitigation Actions / Sectors MA1 MA1+T MA2 MA2+T TRANSPORT MODAL SHIFTS Urban Transport on wheels (BRTs, Bikes, electric vehicles) Rail Urban Transport (Subways, Trams) Freight Transport by Railways and Waterways RENEWABLES Ethanol (Transport) Biodiesel (Transport) Power generation (Wind, Biomass, Hydro, Solar) WASTE TOTAL

SECTORIAL EMISSIONS IN 2030 ACROSS SCENARIOS (Mt CO 2 e) 7 1,666 1,303 1,308 1,023 1,031 Energy generated Transport Energy demand: Household, services, agriculture & livestock Industry Waste

CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS For MA1, which includes lower- cost measures, an investment of approximately US$ 75 billion would be necessary throughout the period For MA2, which includes mitigation actions with a higher costs, an investment of approximately US$ 238 billion would be necessary throughout the period INVESTMENTS IN ADDITIONAL MITIGATION (US$ billion constant)

CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS 9 In the year 2030 the investment in additional mitigation is US$ 9.4 billion in MA1, the equivalent to 0.37% of GDP. In MA2 this value is US$ 37.7 billion, equivalent to 1.46% of GDP in that same year. INVESTMENTS IN ADDITIONAL MITIGATION (US$ billion constant) TOTAL INVESTMENT IN MITIGATION OVER THE PERIOD INVESTMENT IN MITIGATION IN 2030 INVESTMENT IN MITIGATION AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP