Sales Operations - Supply Chain Process Automation By Mike Ruggiero.

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Presentation transcript:

Sales Operations - Supply Chain Process Automation By Mike Ruggiero

Data, data, everywhere, but none of it matches © Seagate Confidential

HeatMap – DSI Allocation Tool Hub Inventory & Buffer Targets © Seagate Confidential

Customer satisfaction is being impacted by poor supply commitment reliability It is difficult to reconcile the demand forecast for the next 13- weeks with what is scheduled to be built, why? It is difficult to determine if JIT inventory buffer levels for key customers can be maintained It is difficult to understand how transit time (lead time) affect both demand fulfillment and buffer levels Problem-1 Statement © Seagate Confidential

Production Build plans are Not in a database but are published weekly on Excel spreadsheets. Each Production Planning Market Segment uses a different publication format. Transit times for customers are poorly understood at a corporate level, planning uses generic 3-days for all. There are multiple methods for calculating customer buffer requirements. Problem-1 Underlying issues © Seagate Confidential

Granularity: per Customer, per tab number (9-digit) Correlate Future Forecast (either Customer FCST or Judged Demand) to Build Plan (BP) data Determine the anticipated Ending Hub Inventory on a weekly basis Calculate the DOI (Days of Inventory) Delta, in units, available to the customer Short term projection (13 weeks) HeatMap – Requirements © Seagate Confidential

HeatMap – Database © Seagate Confidential

HeatMap – Solution Main Pivot Table © Seagate Confidential

HeatMap – User Views & Interfaces Drilldown Configure Pivot Data Limit Query Data Configure Pivot Table © Seagate Confidential

HeatMap – Hub Inventory (Seagate Math) OnH Last Wk (100) InT Last Wk (100) AtF Last Wk (100) COB Last Wk (Wk 0) Beginning Inv (300) + FC This Wk (100) BP This Wk (200) FC Next Wk (150) BP Next Wk (150) Current Wk (Wk 1)Next Wk (Wk 2)... OnH: On-hand InT: In-transit AtF: At-Factory FC: Forecast BP: Build Plan Hub Inventory BP This Wk (200) + FC This Wk (100) - Ending Inv (400) = + + FC Next Wk (150) - BP Next Wk (150) Beginning Inv (400) Ending Inv (400) = Start with all of WWFGI from previous week Add this weeks build Subtract this weeks forecast, what’s left is ending inventory Start with last week’s ending inventory Add this week’s build, Subtract this week’s forecast © Seagate Confidential

Take away this wks demand & what’s left is ending inventory. Begin with the build from the week before last & add-in last wk’s ending inventory Take away this wk’s demand & what’s left is ending inventory This wk’s inventory begins with On-Hand & In Transit from COB the previous Friday Begin with what was at the factory (to be shipped) from COB the week before last & add-in last wk’s ending inventory Take away this weeks demand (FC) and what’s left is ending inventory As well as Future Demand & Supply Estimates The remaining wks are calculated the same as wk-3 Now lets calculate the wk-to-wk Ending Inventory Begin with Known Dedicate d Product HeatMap – Hub Inventory (CM-Customer Math) OnH Last Wk (100) InT Last Wk (100) AtF Last Wk (100) COB Last Wk (Wk 0) Beginning Inv (200) + FC This Wk (100) - Ending Inv (100) = AtF Last Wk (100) + Beginning Inv (100) + FC Next Wk (150) - End Inv (50) = = BP This Wk (200) + Begin Inv (50) + FC 2 nd Wk (200) - FC This Wk (100) BP This Wk (200) FC Next Wk (150) BP Next Wk (150) FC 2 nd Wk (200) BP 2 nd Wk (100) Current Wk (Wk 1) Next Wk (Wk 2) Wk After Next (Wk 3)... OnH: On-hand InT: In-transit AtF: At-Factory FC: Forecast BP: Build Plan Hub Inventory © Seagate Confidential

Account management was able to better justify their arguments with planning on fulfillment issues The dysfunctional level of the groups/managers in the Demand- Fulfillment process increased dramatically Much better understanding of problems and thought process for the different groups was realized Database mapping and spreadsheet inconsistencies made the model hard to maintain The project to create a formal application and database for production planning was accelerated Heatmap was discontinued after 6-months HeatMap – Results © Seagate Confidential

Product Production Scenario Planning 13 © Seagate Confidential

During times of severe allocation (demand significantly exceeds supply) Sales and Operations could not agree on what product to build Maximum quarterly profit margin was dependent on the type of manufacturing constrain limiting supply Appeasing large corporate accounts required at least a limited amount of lower margin product be built Business strategy required that certain product be favored over outers regardless of margin (e.g., capacity, target market such as consumer products or retail, etc.) Problem-2 Statement © Seagate Confidential

Again forecast, product margins, constraints stored in independent databases or no database Poor agreement on what product cost should be used (standard cost, actual cost, others) Poor agreement on which customers should be prioritized over others Complexity of variables made it hard to quantify choices/options (scenario planning) Problem-1 Underlying issues © Seagate Confidential

Model Highlights © Seagate Confidential  The application was developed to enable scenario planning for next quarter Glass Media and Effective Test Time* constraints  Developed models to maximize profit for both 2.5” products (glass media supply constraint) and 3.5” products (test time constraint) Demand Plan input: Rev Plan from Dec/Jan Outlook/Manu forecast Pricing input: Rev Plan from Dec/Jan Outlook Cost input: CMC Update from PLM Media and Effective Test time constraint data from Factory POR (Plan of Record) Customer Priority from PLM ESG uses dedicated Gemini while NSG and PSG share the remaining Gemini resource  Goal: Work with PLM to analyze different fulfillment opportunities for customer-product-linearity decisions that maximize profit Ability to rapidly alternate between different cost (Std/CMC/TVC/MLB) and pricing measures (ASP/AUP) Quickly alter customer and product attribute priorities * Effective test time = Test Time / Yield 16

Page 17 © Seagate Confidential Scenario Modeling Application Supply Constraints

Page 18 © Seagate Confidential Objective: Max Profit Standard Margin*Allocation Qty Manipulate Variables Scenario Modeling Application Constraints

FW31 Manu Forecast Model Results © Seagate Confidential – Special Handling Page 19

Discussions around production alternatives were quantifiable making it easier to discuss alternatives There was still resistance to reduce the number of high priority customers so very little optimization was realized Allocation period ended (switched to period over supply) Completely new process implemented the next time allocation Allocation tool use dormant for 1-year+, but it’s been revived 3-times so you never know Scenario Modeling – Results © Seagate Confidential

DFAT Distribution Forecast Analysis Tool © Seagate Confidential

Distribution forecasting aggregates many smaller customers and involves forecast for a large number of products Forecasting is more variable and often appears unrelated to backlog (usually based on TAM goals) The weekly forecast process required greater than one-person week to complete and there was only one person assigned The forecast was imprecise Existing process tool had 38 documented steps, required an hour to product a working copy Problem-3 Statement © Seagate Confidential

Again five separate datasets need to be correlated: forecast, shipments, inventory, backlog, available supply Data was in multiple reports and not indexed/categorized the same Input from sales was informal and different for each sales region Forecast application was old and manual entry of data was very time consuming Process tool used incomplete and unreliable data sources Problem-3 Underlying issues © Seagate Confidential

Page 24 © Seagate Confidential Objectives Analysis of distribution forecasts with respect to business goals, backlog and supply Entry of distribution forecast and opportunity data into the Manugistics (Manu) data repository Analysis and entry are performed for all region sub- groups across all market segments Analysis updates must be completed within one day for both current quarter and next quarter

Page 25 © Seagate Confidential DFAT - Improve forecast analysis Assemble all relevant data sets in one place Provide ability to compare forecasts to available supply and identify opportunities for revenue improvement Provide ability to rapidly identify gaps between forecast and backlog Built-in linearity analysis, by week and month Automate roll-forward logic for weekly forecast misses

Page 26 © Seagate Confidential Tool Components User Instrument  Correlates FCST and Opportunity with Supply and Backlog  Facilitates entry of forecast quantities  Creates CSV file for use with the loader SMC Loader  Provides mechanism for batch loading Manu data  Quantities loaded by Sub-group, PSP, PN and Fiscal week

Page 27 © Seagate Confidential DFAT - Rapid and accurate analysis

Page 28 © Seagate Confidential DFAT –Single Build, Wham-whams

Page 29 © Seagate Confidential DFAT - Time, Accuracy, Output Improvement Accuracy Able to match regional forecast to supply/backlog on a weekly basis Includes Opportunity complexity not in original process Initially possible once or twice a quarter and took 2-days to complete