Challenges generated by future demographic changes - Bistria Municipality - - Bistria-Năsăud county - Romania 2020 Bologna, october 2014 Maria ALBU –project manager Luca Mircea CHIRA – external expert

MMWD - Conclusions relevant at local level  Migration = Massive out-migration for labour  Total population – Decrease forecast  The age structure of the population balance:  continuous decline of the young population;  decrease of labour resources;  emphasizing the demographic aging phenomenon;  Future consequences: ! excessive aging (emigrant average aged 29-30) ! rural depopulation ! not updated school network ! disfunction in the labour market ! need for specific social services

MIGRATION PHENOMENON Labour marketHuman capitalSocial needs initial structural approach M M W D P R O J E C T MIGRATION PHENOMENON Social needs Labour marketHuman capital conclusively meaning

Presumptive dynamics of total population Population of Bistriţa-Năsăud county by 2020, in 3 projection options  By maintaining the values of demographic indicators from 2011, the constant assumption, considered as „landmark option” records a decrease of the overall population with 2.2% reaching thousand inhabitants.

Evolution of young population, by 2020, constant option Evolution of adult population, by 2020, constant option Evolution of elderly population, by 2020, constant option Changes in the age structure of the population

Population of Bistria municipality in 2011, 2015 and 2020  Population of Bistriţa municipality will increase with values between 1.7 thousand people (optimistic option) and 345 people (pessimistic option) in all projection options. Option People Changes 2020/ AbsoluteRelative (%) Constant Optimistic Pessimistic

Evolution of young population, by 2020, constant option Evolution of adult population, by 2020, constant option Evolution of elderly population, by 2020, constant option Projected changes in the age structure of the population

Quantifications of specific indicators used in local public policy scenarios

Labour market- Bistria-Năsăud county – rural area 2020 Indicator Relevant trends Impact of development policy by Forecasts * 2020 Overall population - 20 – 64 years - 18 – 24 years Active population - 20 – 64 years - 18 – 24 years Activity rate- % - 20 – 64 years - 18 – 24 years 76,0 65,0 72,2 56,6 76,0 56,2 Employed population - 20 – 64 years - 18 – 24 years Employment rate- % - 20 – 64 years - 18 – 24 years 68,7 52,2 69,3 47,0 75,0 56,2 Number of unemployed - 20 – 64 years - 18 – 24 years Unemployment rate-% - 20 – 64 years - 18 – 24 years 10,9 19,6 4,9 17,0 1,4 5,7 Based on the development strategy of Bistriţa-Năsăud county for , local public policy scenarios concerning employment in rural area, under the conditions of reducing the overall population may lead to:  maintaining the level of active population aged years in terms of increasing the activity rate by about 4%;  increasing the employment rate in the same age group by 5.7% compared to 2011;  Reducing unemployed rate by 3.5%;  increasing employment of young population aged years alongside with the massive drop of youth unemployment rate from 17.0% in 2011 to 5.7% in EUEURomaniaBistriţa-Năsăud rural 75%70%75% Employment rate of population aged years * optimistic

Labour market- Bistria municipality Indicator Relevant trends Impact of development policy by Forecasts* 2020 Overall population - 20 – 64 years - 18 – 24 years Active population - 20 – 64 years - 18 – 24 years Activity rate- % - 20 – 64 years - 18 – 24 years 74,0 55,2 73,354,473,354,4 80,7 54,9 Employed population - 20 – 64 years - 18 – 24 years Employment rate- % - 20 – 64 years - 18 – 24 years 64,4 39,0 68,7 42,7 79,3 52,0 Number of unemployed - 20 – 64 years - 18 – 24 years Unemployment rate-% - 20 – 64 years - 18 – 24 years 13,0 29,5 6,3 21,5 1,8 5,3 In view of some optimistic forecasts, supported by strategic adopted elements and stimulated by appropriate public policy on the local market, employment in Bistri ț a will lead to :  increase of employment rate by 2020 both overall and on representative age group namely years, up to over 79%;  the employment rate of young people aged will significantly improve reaching to 52% compared to 42.7% in 2011 Employment rate of population aged years 2020 EUEURomaniaBistriţa 75%70%79,3% * optimistic

Human capital–Bistria-Năsăud county Relevant trends Impact of development policy by Forecsts 2020 Population structure on education level  25 – 64 years -Higher education -Post-secondary and foremen education -Higher secondary education -Lower secondary education -Primary education  30 – 34 years -Higher education -Post-secondary and foremen education -Higher secondary education -Lower secondary education -Primary education 100,0 6,4 2,0 42,1 35,4 11,5 100,0 5,2 0,6 55,1 35,4 2,5 100,0 14,3 3,6 42,7 33,8 5,6 100,0 19,8 3,4 35,0 35,5 6,3 100,0 19,1 4,8 36,7 35,8 3,6 100,0 23,8 4,1 32,5 35,3 4,3 In the future development of human capital, local public policy scenarios lead to the improvement of educational situation of the county population :  The share of people with higher education will increase by 4.8%;  The share of people with post-secondary and foremen education will increase by 1.2%;  Population with tertiary and post- secondary education in the age group years will represent 23.9% of the total, by about 6% more than in Tertiary education graduation rate -30 – 34 years 5,123,227,9 Rate of enrolment in Vocational education – 16 to 21 years Post-secondary education – years Local higher education – years 9,4 2,9 8,3 1,5 5,2 7,0 6,0 12,0 10,0 Graduation rate of tertiary education for population aged years 2020 EU 40% Romania 26,7% Bistriţa-Năsăud 27,9%

Other social needs specific to elderly population IndicatorRelevant trends Impact of development policy by Bistriţa-NăsăudBistriţaBistriţa-NăsăudBistriţa - Elderly population (65+) The predictable population aging process is reflected in highlighted rates :  +15.1% on the overall county compared to 2011;  +73.7% in Bistri ț a municipality compared to Against this general background, it is also expected :  a significant increase in the number of people with difficulties in performing daily activities, requiring assistance to compensate for the degree of limiting daily activities. In order to ensure the most stringent needs of elderly people with severe difficulties, local public policy will lead to :  substantial increase in the capacity of residential care centres for elderly people:  +200% - in rural area  +125% - in Bistriţa The share of elderly population in the overall population 14,98,817,515,1 - Number of people with difficulties in performing daily activities 3599* * Number of people with severe difficulties in performing daily activities (requires attendant) The capacity of residential care centres for the elderly 150*80450*180 * Rural area

PARTNERS / STAKEHOLDERS / RESULTS LABOUR MARKETHUMAN CAPITALSOCIAL NEEDS County Employment Agency Chamber of Commerce and Industry Technical University Cluj-Napoca County School Inspectorate Babe- Bolyai University Cluj-Napoca Municipal Social Services Bistria-Năsăud* Bistria  employment rate : years + 5,7% + 10,4% years + 9,6% + 9,3%  unemployment rate : years - 3,0% - 4,5% years - 11,4% - 16,2% *rural Bistria-Năsăud county  enrollment extent: - vocational schools years + 4,5% - post secondary years +16,8% - university years + 3%   tertiary education graduation rate (professional diploma) years + 4,7% Bistria-Năsăud and Bistria  improvement of social care for elderly people;  local networks of nurses/care- takers / visitors;  volunteer projects around churches;  day centers for elderly people;  mobile canteens;  significant enhancing of the occupation capacity of residential centers for elderly people. +225%. P U B L I C P O L I CY S C E N A R IOS  County Council and Local Governments

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