Using the ACS to Measure Seasonal Population Changes Jason Devine Population Division Population Estimates Branch Spring FSCPE Meeting

Provide better county level controls for the ACS by: using the ACS as a tool to collect the data needed to create a link between the ACS and Census universes Using the ACS to Measure Seasonal Population Changes

In other words, we need to produce an estimate for an area’s “average” population as the ACS defines it, rather than its population April 1 as Census 2000 defines it......using a Census 2000 base Using the ACS to Measure Seasonal Population Changes

ACS : Seasonal residents are counted where they are reached even if they have another residence elsewhere Census : Seasonal residents are counted where they are reached, unless they usually reside elsewhere (>6 months) Residency Definition Differences

Types of “Seasonal” People People who spend the winter in warmer areas (Snowbirds) Migrant farm workers Seasonal Workers (Vacation Areas) People with work residences Students

Example County Seasonal Pop. Census Pop. Average Pop Average Pop.

Housing Units Vacant for Seasonal, Recreational, or Occasional Use Nationally 3,081,174 or 3% of all Housing Units 415,703 or 13.5% of these were in Florida Source: 1990 Census

Percent Vacant for Seasonal, Recreational, or Occasional Use Statewide 415,703 or 6.8% of all Housing Units In Florida Broward County ACS Test Site or 8.3% of the county’s housing units Source: 1990 Census

ACS CENSUS SEASONAL this is USUAL Not Here at Time of ACS PERMANENT (Non-Seasonal) SEASONAL No USUAL Place Not Present April 1 SEASONAL Not USUAL SEASONAL NO USUAL Place Present April 1 SEASONAL this is USUAL here at time of ACS ANY GEOGRAPHIC ENTITY SUBTRACT PERSON YEARS ABSENT FROM AREA FROM ESTIMATE ADD PERSON YEARS IN AREA TO ESTIMATE Permanent Non-Seasonal Seasonal (No Usual Residence) Migrant Farm Workers Seasonal Workers Seasonal (With Usual Residence) Snowbirds

Current Questions 28A-C (Household Section) a. Do all of the persons listed on pages 2 and 3 live at this address year round? ____Yes, skip to the questions for person 1 on the next page ____No, b. Of the persons listed on pages 2 and 3, how many live somewhere else part of the year? ____ All persons listed ____ Some persons -- How many? ____ c. Do you consider this house, apartment, or mobile home, that uses the address on the front cover, your -- ____ Primary Residence? ____ Vacation home? ____ School Residence? ____ Work residence? ____ Other - Specify ____________

Focus on Seasonal “households” in the household section of the ACS questionnaire and seasonal individuals in the person level section New Approach

a. Do you or any member of this household live at this address year round? ____Yes, skip to the questions for person 1 on the next page ____No, b. How many months a year do members of this household stay at this address? _______ c. Do members of this household have another address where they live or stay most of the time? ____ Yes ____ No skip to the questions for person 1 on the next page Modified Questions (Household Section)

Modified Questions 28A (household) a. Do all of the persons listed on pages 2 and 3 live at this address year round? ____Yes, skip to the questions for person 1 on the next page ____No, Current Questions 28A (household) a. Do you or any member of this household live at this address year round? ____Yes, skip to the questions for person 1 on the next page ____No,

Modified Question 28B (household) b. Of the persons listed on pages 2 and 3, how many live somewhere else part of the year? ____ All persons listed ____ Some persons -- How many? ____ Current Question 28B (household) b. How many months a year do members of this household stay at this address? _______

Modified Question 28C (household) c. Do you consider this house, apartment, or mobile home, that uses the address on the front cover, your -- ____ Primary Residence? ____ Vacation home? ____ School Residence? ____ Work residence? ____ Other - Specify ____________ Current Question 28C (household) c. Do members of this household have another address where they live or stay most of the time? ____ Yes ____ No skip to the questions for person 1 on the next page

Modified Question 28C (household) d. What is the main reason members of this household are staying at this address? ____ This is their permanent address ____ This is their seasonal or vacation address ____ To be close to work ____ To attend school or college ____ Other reason(s) --- Specify ____________________

Modified Question 28C (Person Level Section) a. Does this person stay at this address year round? ____Yes ____No b. What is the main reason this person is staying here now? ____ This is their permanent address ____ This is their seasonal or vacation address ____ To be close to work ____ To attend school or college ____ Other reason(s) --- Specify ____________________

Data From Current Questions Any member of the household is seasonal Entire Household is Seasonal Some, but not all, Members of the Household are Seasonal Source: American Community Survey

ACS Test Sites Pima County, Arizona Jefferson County, Arkansas San Francisco, California Tulare County, California Broward County, Florida Upson County, Georgia Lake County, Illinois Miami County, Indiana Black Hawk County, Iowa DeSoto Parish, Louisiana Calvert County, Maryland Hampden County, Massachusetts Madison County, Mississippi Iron County, Missouri Reynolds County, Missouri Washington County, Missouri Flathead County, Montana Lake County, Montana Douglas County, Nebraska Otero County, New Mexico Bronx County, New York Rockland County, New York Franklin County, Ohio Multnomah County, Oregon Fulton County, Pennsylvania Schuykill County, Pennsylvania Sevier County, Tennessee Fort Bend County, Texas Harris County, Texas Starr County, Texas Zapata County, Texas Petersburg City, Virginia Yakima County, Washington Ohio County, West Virginia Oneida County, Wisconsin Vilas County, Wisconsin