1 Redesign of the chain of economic statistics: Arnout van Delden Frank Aelen Statistics Netherlands STS statistics as an example

2 Outline –Context –Redesign of Short Term Statistics Starting points Design Results so far –Improvements longer run

3 Context (1) Challenges to Statistics Netherlands –Improve quality of statistics –Reduce administrative burden –Reduce costs: staff and IT

4 Context (2) HEcS: redesign chain of economic statistics –Increased use of administrative data –More automated processes –Top-down approach –Chain management –Architecture: uniformity of processes

5 Starting points STS (1) Background –Growth rates of monthly and quarterly turnover –Different branches –Three releases: s+30, s+60, s+120 –Yearly forms –Yearly forms for small and medium-sized units (SMB, < 50 employees per enterprise ) Redesign: use VAT data for SMB

6 Requirements 1.Coherence monthly, quarterly and yearly turnover 2.Difference between releases of monthly turnover: at most 1.5%point no structural bias 3.Output on time Starting points STS (2)

7 Starting points STS (3) Issues: 1.Monthly, quarterly and yearly reporters of VAT 2.Fiscal unit n:m relationship with enterprise 3.First release s+30, start process VAT-data s+23 4.Definition of VAT turnover <> statistical definition 5.Detection of erroneous values Specific units available to estimate growth rate of monthly turnover (issue 1– 3)

8 Design (1): estimator Yearly growth rate (G) of monthly turnover (O): S = stayers, B = births, MI = immigrants Motivation Yearly growth rates more alike than levels: - Monthly versus quarterly and yearly reporters (issue 1) - Linked units versus non-linked units (issue 2) - Early versus late reporters (issue 3) - VAT-definition versus statistical definition (issue 4)

9 Design (2): processing stages Comply with business architecture Value chain: ─each process add value to the data ─generic structure Steady states: ─well defined state of processing ─quality indicators ─re-use of data

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11 Results so far Requirement (1) Coherence –Monthly, quarterly and yearly turnover consistent –Yearly turnover VAT for both STS & SBS (in future) Requirement (2) Difference between releases –Difference still > 1.5 %point –Editing should be improved –Population dynamics Requirement (3) Publish on time –Yes: but processing time for editing is short

12 Challenges –Improve linkage between fiscal and statistical units –Improve editing (issue 5) –Good relationship with tax office –Chain management

13 Questions?