Climate Change in Wisconsin Bracing for Impact: Climate Change Adaptation in Wisconsin February 26, 2009 Daniel J. Vimont University of Wisconsin - Madison Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies Center for Climatic Research University of Wisconsin - Madison Understanding Earth’s Past, Present, and Future Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin - Madison Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE) University of Wisconsin, Madison

Climate Change in Wisconsin Bracing for Impact: Climate Change Adaptation in Wisconsin February 26, 2009 Daniel J. Vimont University of Wisconsin - Madison Thanks to: Steve Vavrus, David Lorenz, Michael Notaro (CCR) Chris Kucharik (SAGE) Jack Williams (UW Geography) Wisconsin State Climatology Office Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies Center for Climatic Research University of Wisconsin - Madison Understanding Earth’s Past, Present, and Future Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin - Madison Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE) University of Wisconsin, Madison

Climate Change in Wisconsin Global Climate Change: Setting the stage Climate Change and Risk: Mitigation and Adaptation Climate Change in Wisconsin: How will global Climate Change affect Wisconsin? Where do we go from here? The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

Climate Change in Wisconsin Global Climate Change: Setting the stage Climate Change and Risk: Mitigation and Adaptation Climate Change in Wisconsin: How will global Climate Change affect Wisconsin? Where do we go from here? The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

Global Climate Change Greenhouse Gasses: “Trap” energy in lower atmosphere Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gasses: Increasing to levels we have never seen

Global Climate Change Global Temperature: Has increased by ~0.7°C over the last 100yr. The rate of increase is “accelerating”.

Global Climate Change Future Climate Change: How do we know what will happen? Global Climate Models Divide the world into boxes, solve equations that govern weather / climate on a discrete grid. Apply forcing based on a “storyline” of future emissions

Global Climate Change 2025: +1° C Emissions scenario does not matter (Adaptation) 2090: +2°-6° C Scenario does matter (Mitigation) Future Global Temperature: Temperature will increase by about 1°C in the next 20yr, 2°-6°C by the end of the century.

Global Climate Change Moving from Global to Regional Problem: Models are meant to reliably simulate GLOBAL climate. What regional changes can we trust? How do we translate global change into a regional context? What physical phenomena are missing?

Global Climate Change Moving from Global to Regional Downscaling: Interpret global projections on a scale relevant to climate impacts. WICCI Climate Working Group / Focus on Energy

Climate Change in Wisconsin Global Climate Change: Setting the stage Climate Change and Risk: Mitigation and Adaptation Climate Change in Wisconsin: How will global Climate Change affect Wisconsin? Where do we go from here? The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

Climate Change and Risk: Risk: Probability of an event occurring times its consequence Mitigation: Intervention to reduce the sources of greenhouse gases or enhance their sinks Adaptation: Adjustment of a system to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with consequences, associated with climate change

Climate Change and Risk: Risk: Probability of an event occurring times its consequence Low Probability, High Consequence High Probability, High Consequence Low Probability, Low Consequence High Probability, Low Consequence Probability Consequence Adaptation Policies Mitigation Policies

Mitigation: Necessary to avoid dangerous climate change Adaptation: Climate change is inevitable; Adaptation needed to minimize impacts Climate Change and Risk: Mitigation: reduces amount of global warming Adaptation: reduces the impact

Climate Change in Wisconsin Global Climate Change: Setting the stage Climate Change and Risk: Mitigation and Adaptation Climate Change in Wisconsin: How will global Climate Change affect Wisconsin? Where do we go from here? The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

Climate Change in Wisconsin What do the models tell us? Temperature: Warms by 2-6  C (3-10  F) by end of century Precipitation: Less certain; seasonally dependent

Climate Change in Wisconsin What does it mean? Warmer Winters  Shorter Ice Duration

Climate Change in Wisconsin What does it mean? Warmer Winters  Snow cover changes Shorter Snow Season Snow Rain

Climate Change in Wisconsin What does it mean? Warmer Winters  Snow cover changes Shorter Snow Season Snow Rain

Climate Change in Wisconsin What does it mean?

Kucharik and Serbin, in prep Climate Change in Wisconsin What does it mean? Increase of 1-4 weeks

Climate Change in Wisconsin What does it mean? Warmer Winters  Changes in Hardiness (Invasive Species) Source: J. Williams, UW Center for Climatic Research & Department of Geography

Climate Change in Wisconsin What does it mean? Warmer Winters  More freezing rain?

Climate Change in Wisconsin What do the models tell us?

2050 Climate Change in Wisconsin What do the models tell us? 2050 Median Temp = Warmest year recorded ( )

Climate Change in Wisconsin What do the models tell us? 2050 Median Temp = Warmest year recorded ( ) 2090: Three out of four summers will be warmer than we have ever observed.

Climate Change in Wisconsin What does it mean? Warmer Summers  Reduced cold-water fish habitat; increased warm-water fish habitat Research by John Lyons, Matt Mitro, WI DNR

Climate Change in Wisconsin What does it mean? Warmer Summers  More heat waves (but, fewer cold snaps in winter) Source: S. Vavrus UW CCR

Climate Change in Wisconsin What do the models tell us? More extreme precipitation events Source: IPCC AR4 WGI Large precipitation events get even larger, even though total precipitation may stay constant, or even decrease. 1 in 20yr event occurs every 5 years CCSP 2008; Kharin et al. 2007

Climate Change in Wisconsin What does it mean? More extreme rainfall  Increased flooding More extreme precipitation events Source: IPCC AR4 WGI Large precipitation events get even larger, even though total precipitation may stay constant, or even decrease.

Photo credit: Sandra McClellan, UWM, and Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewage District

Climate Change in Wisconsin Global Climate Change: Setting the stage Climate Change and Risk: Mitigation and Adaptation Climate Change in Wisconsin: How will global Climate Change affect Wisconsin? Where do we go from here? The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

Where do we go from here? Governor’s Task Force on Global Warming Mitigation Strategy for Wisconsin: a reduction to 2005 emissions levels no later than 2014 a reduction of 22% below 2005 GHG emissions levels by 2022 a reduction of 75% from 2005 GHG emissions levels by 2050 Provides 63 suggested activities to achieve these reductions in GHG emissions

Where do we go from here? Climate Change Impact Assessment Physical Climate Impact System Decisions ? Goal: Determine effect of climate changes on an impact system, with a goal of identifying adaptation strategies Policy-Relevant Climate Impact Assessment Requires information to be useful to decision-making process

Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts WICCI: Partnership between the UW Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, the Wisconsin DNR, and other state groups Goal: Assess and anticipate climate change impacts on specific Wisconsin natural resources, ecosystems and regions; evaluate potential effects on industry, agriculture, tourism, and other human activities; and develop and recommend adaptation strategies…

Resources: Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts Governor’s Task Force on Global Warming UW Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies Center for Climatic Research Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Bracing for Impact: Climate Change Adaptation in Wisconsin Introducing Wisconsin’s Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Thursday Feb 7PM (Dick Lathrop & Dan Vimont) Wisconsin’s Future Climate Wednesday Mar 7PM (Michael Notaro) - Wed the Lab Recent Evidence of Wisconsin Climate Change Thurs Mar 7PM (Chris Kucharik) Response of Wisconsin’s Fish to Climate Change Thurs Mar 7PM (Matthew Mitro & John Lyons) Response of Wisconsin’s Lakes and Ecosystems to Climate Change Thurs Apr 7PM (John Magnuson & Jack Williams) Impact of Climate Change on Wisconsin’s Stormwater and Coasts Thurs Apr 7PM (David Liebl & Phil Keillor) Health Impacts of Climate Change and Enhanced Wisconsin Weather Extremes Thurs May 7PM (Jonathan Patz & Steve Vavrus) Response of Wisconsin’s Wildlife to Climate Change Thurs May 7PM (Karl Martin and Michael Meyer) Climate Change Impacts on Wisconsin’s Forest Ecosystems Thurs Jun 7PM (David Mladenoff and Sara Hotchkiss)

Climate Change and Risk: Near Term Long Term Global Regional Local Adapted from: Morgot and Agrawala: The Benefits of Climate Change Policies (Ch. 1) Policy options for mitigation and adaptation involve very different scales (spatial and temporal)

Climate Change and Risk: Adaptation Benefits Reduced impact of unavoidable climate change Near Term Long Term Global Regional Local Adapted from: Morgot and Agrawala: The Benefits of Climate Change Policies (Ch. 1)

Climate Change and Risk: Adaptation Benefits Reduced impact of unavoidable climate change Mitigation: Direct Benefits Avoided climate impacts; uneven distribution; not coupled with location of mitigation Near Term Long Term Global Regional Local Adapted from: Morgot and Agrawala: The Benefits of Climate Change Policies (Ch. 1)

Climate Change and Risk: Mitigation : Ancillary Benefits (Human health, and other benefits from limiting local / regional air pollution) Adaptation Benefits Reduced impact of unavoidable climate change Mitigation: Direct Benefits Avoided climate impacts; uneven distribution; not coupled with location of mitigation Near Term Long Term Global Regional Local Adapted from: Morgot and Agrawala: The Benefits of Climate Change Policies (Ch. 1)

Climate Impact (e.g. temperature change) Probability density Present Day Threshold Identify present-day “threshold”. How often do we exceed that threshold today? Climate Change and Risk:

Climate Impact (e.g. temperature change) Probability density Present Day Threshold Future How often do we exceed that threshold in the future? Climate Change and Risk:

Climate Impact (e.g. temperature change) Probability density Present Day OldThreshold Future Adaption: Expands the “coping range”, or reduces vulnera- bility NewThreshold Climate Change and Risk:

Climate Impact (e.g. temperature change) Probability density Present Day Threshold Future Mitigation: Changes future climate PDF, limits the likelihood of threshold excedence Mitigated Future: New PDF Climate Change and Risk:

Climate Impact Assessment How do we begin? Physical Climate Impact System Decisions ? Goal: Determine effect of climate changes on an impact system, with a goal of identifying adaptation strategies Policy-Relevant Climate Impact Assessment Requires information to be useful to decision-making process

Physical Climate Impact System Decisions Boundary Object Boundary Object: Interface between multiple communities of interest. Shared, but used differently Climate Impact Assessment Boundary Framework

Physical Climate Impact System Decisions Examples: Scenarios Run a climate model, force ecosystem model with climate model output Climate Impact Assessment Top-down Framework

Useful when: Impact is unknown or very broad Policy does not exist (scenarios are useful for exploring policy options) Very simple to implement Disadvantages: Computationally expensive Poor characterization of uncertainty Model biases usually imply questionable results Poor sampling of “climate space” and “impact space” Impact Present Climate Predicted Climate Top-down impact assessment Climate Impact Assessment Top-down Framework

Physical Climate Impact System Decisions Examples: Risk Assessment “Resiliency” Approach Climate Impact Assessment Bottom-up Framework

Advantages: Useful when impacts and “stressors” are well known and simulated Uncertainty is well quantified Adaption strategies are easily explored Expert assessment easily included to limit bias Disadvantages: Relevant stressors are usually not reliable Poor for no-analogue climates Sometimes inflexible Impact Present Climate Predicted Climate Bottom-up impact assessment Threshold Impact Region Climate Impact Assessment Bottom-up Framework

Change in Date of First Fall Freeze (32ºF) Change in Date of last Spring Freeze (32ºF) 6-20 day retreat 3-18 days later Kucharik and Serbin, in prep Climate Change in Wisconsin What does it mean?

Climate Change in Wisconsin What does it mean? Warmer Winters  Changes in Hardiness (Invasive Species) Source: J. Williams, UW Center for Climatic Research & Department of Geography

Where do we go from here? WICCI: Boundary organization. Working Groups organized around “Boundary Objects”.

Where do we go from here? WICCI Working Groups:

Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts WICCI: Partnership between the UW Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, the Wisconsin DNR, and other state groups Goal: Assess and anticipate climate change impacts on specific Wisconsin natural resources, ecosystems and regions; evaluate potential effects on industry, agriculture, tourism, and other human activities; and develop and recommend adaptation strategies…