Environmental Modeling Pedro Ribeiro de Andrade Münster, 2013

INPE: CONVERTING DATA INTO KNOWLEDGE SATELLITES Earth observation, scientific, and data collection satellites GROUND SYSTEMS Satellite control, reception, processing and distribution of satellite data ANALYSIS AND MODELLING Space Weather, Weather Prediction and Earth System Science SOCIETAL BENEFITS Innovative products to meet Brazil´s needs

DETER: 15-day alerts of newly deforested large areas Monitoring Deforestation in Amazonia

Clear-cut deforestation mapping of Amazonia

What is a model?  A model is a simplified representation of a phenomenon, process, actor, system, or any complex entity.

Examples of models – atom  Concept  Indivisible entities over which matter is built  Model  Dalton, 1807  solid sphere  Thomson, 1904  plum pudding  Rutherford, 1911  Positive nucleus + negative electrosphere  Bohr, 1913  Nucleus + electrons with different levels of energy  Schrondinger, Pauli  Subatomic particles Dalton, 1807Thomson, 1904Rutherford, 1911 Bohr, 1913

Examples of models – Shape of the Earth  Concept  Place where we live. Environment.  Model  Flat  archaic belief  Spherical  Pythagoras ( AD 570)  Suggested that Earth could be spherical  Aristotle ( AD 330)  First evidence: semi-circular shadow at moon  Eratosthenes ( AD 240)  First estimate of Earth’s circumference  Mathematics  Scotsman McLaurin (1742)  Flat  Carl Jacobi (1834)  Elipsoidal  Henri Poincaré (1885)  Periform  Dynamic  Modern geodesy FlatSphericEllipsoidPeriform Dynamic geoid

Earth – Our Environment

Dynamic Models Source: Miller and Page 2005? F(S) f(s) Time tTime t + 1 World Model E(S) S s

f(s) Dynamic Models ? World Modell S ??

Why modeling?  Understand how the system behaves  Simulate future and alternative scenarios  Support decision making and public policies using scientific knowledge

Global Change Where are changes taking place? How much change is happening? Who is being impacted by the change? What is causing change? Human actions and global change photo: A. Reenberg photo: C. Nobre

Computational models If (... ? ) then... Connect expertise from different fields Make the different conceptions explicit

Why computational models?  Can represent heterogeneity  Formal language to represent the model  Avoid ambiguity  Stable description of the model  Implementation allows experiments  Reproducibility (How did you do that?)

Modeling is a cyclic process

Environmental Modeling Course  Computer simulation of environmental processes  Different approaches  Systems theory  Cellular automata  Agent-based modeling

Environmental Modeling Course  Practical course  Activities  Exercises  Final project  Wiki:  Schedule  Classes on Wednesdays, from 2:00PM to 4:00PM  Office hours: Tuesdays, from 2:00PM to 5:00PM   

TerraME: Terra Modeling Environment Pedro Ribeiro de Andrade Münster, 2013

TerraME: Computational environment for developing nature-society models Cell Spaces Source: [Carneiro et al., 2013]

TerraME´s way: Modular components Spatial structure 1:32:00Mens :32:10Mens :38:07Mens :42:00Mens return value true 1. Get first pair 2. Execute the ACTION 3. Timer =EVENT 4. timeToHappen += period Temporal structure Newly implanted Deforesting Slowing down latency > 6 years Iddle Year of creation Deforestation = 100% Rules of behaviour Spatial relations Source: [Carneiro et al., 2013]

TerraME

Modelos LUCC Modelos Hidrológicos Environmental Models with TerraME Propagação de Queimadas Source: (Almeida et al, 2008) Source: (Carneiro, 2006)

TerraME team  CCST-INPE  Pedro Andrade, Miguel Monteiro, Gilberto Camara, Raian Maretto, Daniel Santos  UFOP/TerraLab  Tiago Carneiro, Rodrigo Reis, Antônio Rodrigues  DPI/OBT-INPE  TerraLib team

 TerraME version 1.2  Documentation  Lua for TerraME: A Short Introduction  TerraME Types and Functions