SEStran Regional Model Midlothian Local Development Plan Transport Appraisal Final Summary Report

Overview The study consisted of 6 main tasks:  Review of previous work  Definition of objectives and indicators  Definition of land use and transport network scenario  Network appraisal modelling  Generate transport network interventions  Appraisal of interventions and indicative final package This report summarises the outputs of each stage. Further in-depth information can be found in the detailed reports for each task.

Review of Previous Work

ReportMain outcomes Midlothian Local Plan (2008)Basis for new Midlothian Local Development Plan LATIS Support to Planning Reform: Midlothian Baseline Report (December 2010) Baseline assessment of the performance of the Strategic Transport Network using the LATIS model Strategic Development Plan for Edinburgh and South East Scotland (November 2011) Key transport infrastructure interventions for Midlothian area SESplan Transport Technical Note (November 2011)Outline of the modelling work used to inform the SDP for Edinburgh and South East Scotland A701, A702, A703 Road Alignment Options: Preliminary Feasibility Report (October 2012) Preliminary assessment of road alignment options for these sites A701, A702, A703 Road Alignment Options: Addendum Feasibility Report (March 2013) Detailed assessment of road alignment options for these sites, with cost estimates Midlothian Local Development Plan: Reference Case Modelling (January 2013) Enhanced version of the SEStran Regional Model with increased granularity in Midlothian Public consultation on the Main Issues Report (May to August 2013) Generation and refinement of transport options Review of Previous Work

Definition of Objectives and Indicators

Background Objectives should reflect the following:  Scottish Government’s Purpose  National Transport Strategy  SEStran Regional Transport Strategy  Midlothian Local Transport Strategy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) enable appraisal of different transport options  KPIs are refined into model indicators to allow comparison of model outputs

MLDP Transport Objectives  Objective 1 - To ensure that transport networks are managed, maintained and improved so as to provide the quality of infrastructure that will meet the needs of all users.  Objective 2 - To ensure transport infrastructure is planned and developed to encourage investment within Midlothian, and attract jobs and people to the area;  Objective 3 - To widen travel choices and make travel by more sustainable modes of transport more attractive than the private car, particularly at peak times  Objective 4 - To protect the health of the population.  Objective 5 - To reduce, and where possible, mitigate the effects of the transport system on the built and natural environment.  Objective 6 - To reduce the number of casualties involving death and serious injury and ensure that the design of the transport system improves personal safety and minimises crime.  Objective 7 - To stabilise traffic growth in line with national targets and secure more reliable journey times by all modes.  Objective 8 - To improve integration between all modes of transport.  Objective 9 - To enhance connections between areas within Midlothian and provide improved links to the rest of Scotland and beyond.  Objective 10 - To reduce social exclusion by improving accessibility to jobs, education and services for all, and by all modes of transport.

Model Indicators for MLDP Appraisal using the SEStran Regional Model  Travel Demand (AM and PM peak periods): Trip productions and attractions by mode (i.e. car and public transport) PT mode share Park and Ride site occupancies  Network Demand (AM and PM peak hours): Vehicle and Passenger kilometres on key corridors in study area  Road Network Operation (AM and PM peak hours): Average vehicle speeds on key corridors in study area Delays at junctions (total and per vehicle) Ratio of (traffic) flow to capacity (RFC) Car journey times Public transport journey times to/from Edinburgh city centre Estimated annual vehicle carbon emissions Estimated annual accident numbers using standard accident rates

Definition of Land-use and Transport Network Scenario

Key Steps Define 2024 MLDP ‘Reference Case’  Housing developments  Employment locations  Road schemes  Public transport schemes Include land-use travel demand and network schemes in SEStran Regional Model (SRM)

Development Locations

Land-use Development Development CategoryTotal Completed housing units (April 2011 to March 2014)1,616 Committed housing units (April 2014 to March 2024)7,186 Additional allocated housing units3,465 Committed economic developments to March 2024 (hectares)202.3 Resulting jobs based on standard conversion factors*11,903 Additional economic developments to March 2024 (hectares)122.4 Resulting jobs based on standard conversion factors*13,459 *Assumptions made for conversions to jobs: 1)1 full employee per 34 m2 Gross Internal Area floor space (source: Employment Densities Guide – 2 nd Edition) 2)Total site hectares converted to GIA estimate using 0.20 all committed sites, 0.20 for LDP allocation industrial sites and 0.40 for LDP allocation business park sites (source: Midlothian Council)

Road Schemes SchemeDescriptionOperational in 2012/13 Operational in 2024 A68 Dalkeith Northern Bypass Operational from 2008XX M9 Spur Motorway Connection from the M9 to the Forth Road Bridge XX Removal of tolls from all road bridges Tolls removed on Forth Road BridgeXX Upper Forth Crossing New bridge and associated road connections at Kincardine XX Forth Replacement Crossing New Forth crossing with road connections to M90 & M9 Spur. Current crossing retained for bus services X M8 HeartlandsExtra Junction on the M8X

Public Transport Schemes SchemeDescriptionOperational in 2012/13 Operational in 2024 Airdrie-Bathgate Rail Link XX Stirling-Alloa Rail Link XX East Coast Rail 2013 rail service timetable improvements between Edinburgh and London XX Edinburgh TRAM (Phase 1a) New tramline between Edinburgh city centre and Airport X ‘Current’ Edinburgh CrossRail Services Current services – note that these change after Borders Rail goes in XX Borders Railway Rail line between Tweedbank & Edinburgh. 2tph throughout the day. Park & ride provision at each rail station. X Edinburgh Gateway Station New station at Gogar served by Fife Circle services and connecting with Edinburgh TRAM X Edinburgh-Glasgow Improvement Programme Phase 1 Various speed and capacity increasesX

Network Assessment Modelling

Key Steps Develop MLDP 2024 Reference Case  Changes to households and jobs in Midlothian based on LDP allocations  Changes across the wider area from TELMoS SDP projections  Changes to transport networks based on committed schemes Modelling Process  Forecast travel demand based on land-use projections  Demand model predicts destination choice and mode share (car/PT)  Travel demand assigned to transport networks (road and PT)  Operational analysis of networks, eg peak hour flows, journey times etc  Model outputs summarised as Key Performance Indicators for appraisal

SRM SEStran Regional Model Forecasting Overview Midlothian LDP Allocations (Jobs and Households) SDP Allocations (Jobs and Households) Trip End Model SRM Demand Model SRM Highway Assignment Model SRM PT Assignment Model Committed Highway Schemes Committed PT Schemes KPIs

2024 LDP Reference Case Forecast: AM Average Junction Delays

2024 LDP Reference Case Forecast: PM Average Junction Delays

Generation of Mitigation Options

Overview Assessment of MLDP Reference Case identified network performance issues Proposed intervention scenarios seek to address these issues  Scenario 1: Site Hs1 (S2) New Access;  Scenario 2: Local Junction Capacity Relief;  Scenario 3: PT Infrastructure and Services Improvements;  Scenario 4: A701 Relief Road and Link Road; and  Scenario 5: A720 Edinburgh Bypass Capacity Relief. Each of these scenarios were appraised following DPMTAG in line with STAG Part 1

Scenario 1: Site Hs1 (S2) possible new access via A68/A720 junction  Site Hs1 (S2) is a development at Newton Farm, near Shawfair  A total of 480 dwellings are proposed for this site by 2024  In the reference case, these dwellings connect to the road network via the B6415 Old Craighall Road  For this scenario option, the Hs1 development will be connected to the A720/A68 interchange via a new access arm to the West of the junction.

Scenario 2: Local Junction Capacity Relief: details In the modelling of the base case, ten locations were identified where junction performance eroded due to the MLDP implementation SiteLocationSuggested mitigation 1A702/A703/Damhead JunctionsSignalisation at A702/A703 junction with MOVA optimisation 2A702/Mauricewood RoadChange priority junction to a roundabout 3A701/Pentland Road/DamheadMOVA optimisation at junction 4A701/A768Change signalised junction to roundabout 5A701/Seafield RoadChange priority junction to roundabout 6A701/Graham’s Road/Belwood RoadMOVA optimisation at junction 7A7/Bonnyrigg RoadDo nothing – junction has high demand but is still functioning within acceptable levels 8A7/B6392Do nothing – junction has high demand but is still functioning within acceptable levels 9Lothian Street / High Street, BonnyriggMOVA optimisation at junction 10A7/The WispChange signalised junction to roundabout

Scenario 2: Local Junction Capacity Relief: locations

Scenario 3: PT Infrastructure and Services Improvements Increase of 5 percentage points in public transport mode share  Entirely theoretical; delivery would be dependent on the policies and schemes that could be implemented  Assumption is that the ‘new’ population which take up the new housing are more inclined to use PT/active modes than the existing population

Scenario 4: A701 Relief Road and Link Road: details Realignment of the A701 between the Straiton roundabout at the A720 Edinburgh City Bypass and the existing junction with the A703  Would alleviate identified road performance issues on existing A701 route  Intervention comprises a new single-lane carriageway with a 50mph speed limit to the west of the existing A701, which would link into the existing A703.  There would also be a new link road between the new A701/A703 junction and the A702

Scenario 4: A701 Relief Road and Link Road: proposed route

Scenario 5: A720 Edinburgh Bypass Capacity Relief Relief of congestion at the Edinburgh Bypass  The delivery of this scenario is outwith the control of Midlothian Council, but it is considered a valid test scenario to assess potential implications for the transport network in Midlothian The scenario was defined as the two following changes:  The creation of a grade-separated junction at the Sheriffhall roundabout (junction of the A720/ A7/ A6106) by linking the east and west-bound carriageways of the A720 through the roundabout (i.e. over or under depending on more detailed design of the junction), allowing through traffic on the A720 to bypass this junction  The extension of the grade-separated junction at Old Craighall (junction of the A720/ A1) with new direct links between the eastbound A720 and the eastbound A1 and the westbound A720 and the westbound A1.

Appraisal of Mitigation Scenario Options

Part 1 STAG Appraisal definition The Part 1 STAG Appraisal involved a qualitative assessment of each option’s likelihood to meet the Transport Planning Objectives and other relevant yardsticks. The Part 1 Appraisal is in four parts:  initial appraisal of the likely impact of options against Transport Planning Objectives;  initial appraisal of the likely impact of options against the five STAG Criteria (Environment, Economy, Safety, Integration and Accessibility & Social Inclusion);  initial appraisal of the fit of options with established policy directives; and  initial appraisal of the feasibility, affordability and likely public acceptability of options.

Appraisal of Mitigation Scenario Options Assessment scale The appraisal of the scenario options has been completed using a seven-point-scale assessment, considering the relative size and scale of impacts as outlined below:  Major benefit (represented by )  Moderate benefit (represented by )  Minor benefit (represented by )  No benefit or impact (represented by =)  Minor cost or negative impact (represented by  )  Moderate cost or negative impact (represented by  )  Major cost or negative impacts (represented by  ) Feasibility, Affordability and Public Acceptance criteria were assessed over three levels: minor, moderate or major considerations.

Appraisal of Mitigation Scenario Options Assessment scoring summary

Final MLDP Transport Option Package

MLDP Transport Option Package Following the appraisal of the five scenario options, the scenario options (or elements thereof) listed below were selected to form the final MLDP Transport Option.  Scenario 1: Site Hs1 (S2) New Access;  Scenario 2: Local Junction Capacity Relief measures at the following junctions: A702/ A703/ Damhead, noting that further consideration of a functioning design solution is required in liaison with Transport Scotland and that traffic impacts at this location may be mitigated by the A710 relief road; A701/ Graham’s Road/ Belwood Road – MOVA optimisation; Lothian Street/ High Street, Bonnyrigg – MOVA optimisation; A7/ The Wisp, noting that a roundabout is unlikely to be an acceptable solution and where alternative junction enhancements would be explored;  Scenario 3: PT Infrastructure and Services Improvements; and  Scenario 4: A701 Relief Road and Link Road.

Final Transport Option Appraisal A qualitative summary appraisal of the combined package of scenario options was then undertaken. It considers the combined impact of each scenario option and where they interact. This informs how the Transport Option will achieve the objectives of the MLDP and support the delivery of the strategy.

Conclusions The summary appraisal indicates that the final package of mitigation measures strongly support the MLDP Transport Planning Objectives as well as the Government Objectives. This would indicate that the defined Transport Option will provide the required level of support for the MLDP. The only negative points are in terms of potential environmental impacts and this relates specifically to the A701 Relief Road where the early stage of scheme specification cannot rule out possible issues. These impacts could potentially be mitigated as part of the design and delivery process, which will be set out in the MLDP Action Programme. Based on an appraisal of various scenario options a final Transport Option has been defined and the appraisal of this indicates that the package of mitigation measures will adequately support the delivery of the MLDP and its objectives.