Fire Weather 2015 NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard DAVID GOMBERG Fire Weather Program Manager ERIC BOLDT Warning Coordination Meteorologist Springs Fire – May 2013 (Photo by Scott Sukup, NWS)

Topics Today Topics Today Drought and Fuels Drought and Fuels Seasonal Outlook Seasonal Outlook Products/Services Products/Services Red Flag Warnings Red Flag Warnings Coordination Calls Coordination Calls Debris Flows Debris Flows Decision Support Decision Support Station Fire – Los Angeles, CA August 29, 2009 Photo by Jonathan Alcorn

NWS Contact Info Fire Weather Operations Desk Fire Weather Operations Desk  (805) Mark Jackson – Meteorologist in Charge Mark Jackson – Meteorologist in Charge  (805) Eric Boldt – Warning Coordination Meteorologist Eric Boldt – Warning Coordination Meteorologist  (805) Rich Thompson – IMET or Rich Thompson – IMET or Dave Gomberg – Fire Wx Program Manager Dave Gomberg – Fire Wx Program Manager  (805) Website Website  weather.gov/losangeles

DroughtandFuels

Water Year Precipitation

Jan-June 2015 Precipitation Percent of Normal

Drought Monitor Drought Monitor June June

2015 Live Fuel Moisture Santa Monica Mountains Average Critical

WeatherOutlook

Precipitation Outlook July-August-September

Temperature Outlook July-August-September

GACC SEASONAL OUTLOOK July-September 2015 (Issued June 1 st ) Summary: Above normal Large Fire Potential Below Normal Summertime “Monsoonal” Precipitation Above Normal Temperatures High Amount of Bug Killed Trees and Diseased Forest Adds to Large Fire Potential in the Mountains

EL NINO OUTLOOK EL NINO OUTLOOK El Nino Advisory Weak to Moderate Strong

NWS Products and Services Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF) Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF) Spot Forecasts Spot Forecasts NFDRS Trend Forecast NFDRS Trend Forecast Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches IMET Program IMET Program

Fire Weather Webpage Spot Forecasts FWF/RFW ROMAN Red Flag Monitor Activity Planner

Fire Weather Planning Forecast CAZ LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS-.TODAY SKY/WEATHER…...MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMP to HR TREND...UP 2 TO 4. MIN HUMIDITY TO 25 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND...DOWN 10. WIND SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH. MARINE LAYER FEET. LAL CWR (>.10”)

Spot Forecasts Spot forecasts available Spot forecasts available –Wildfire –Prescribed burns –Hazmat/Search and Rescue –Event Planning Include working contact number and agency Include working contact number and agency Include observations and time you need spot Include observations and time you need spot Can reach NWS forecaster 24/7 Can reach NWS forecaster 24/7 –(805)

Important to include a working phone number!

May 17, Fire Weather Update Spot Forecast feedback encouraged! Overall value of spot (including timeliness) Any fire behavior notes of interest

Potential Critical Fire Weather Patterns (3-5 Day Period) Mentioned in following products Mentioned in following products  FWF Discussion  Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)  Special Weather Statement (SPS)  Decision Support s and Weather Stories

Watches and Warnings Watches and Warnings issued for critical fire weather patterns conducive to extreme fire danger and/or fire behavior Watches and Warnings issued for critical fire weather patterns conducive to extreme fire danger and/or fire behavior –Must have sufficiently dry fuels Fire Weather Watch Alerts agencies of potential red flag conditions Confidence is high but not certain Fire Weather Watch Alerts agencies of potential red flag conditions Confidence is high but not certain Red Flag Warning Red flag conditions either imminent or are occurring Red Flag Warning Red flag conditions either imminent or are occurring 24 – 96 hours prior to expected event 0 – 48 hours prior to event Jonathan Alcorn

Red Flag Criteria NWS Oxnard The less than 10% RH requires a minimum wind speed of 15 mph

GACC Conference Calls GACC Conference Calls All Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches coordinated with GACC and local fire agencies All Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches coordinated with GACC and local fire agencies Importance of 830 am GACC Conference Call Importance of 830 am GACC Conference Call  Event driven during critical fire weather patterns  Multi-agency participation Riverside GACC leads call Riverside GACC leads call NWS offices (including IMETS during ongoing fires) NWS offices (including IMETS during ongoing fires) Fire Agencies Fire Agencies  Overview of weather, fuels, and potential fire behavior  Decision making NOAA

NWS Oxnard Focused Conference Calls In addition to 830 am GACC Call, introduced local conference calls this past year In addition to 830 am GACC Call, introduced local conference calls this past year –Additional details/decision making can be discussed –More time for addressing local weather concerns and fielding questions –Typically held at 1 pm

Red Flag Monitor

IMET Program On-site support for the following: On-site support for the following: – Wildfires – Hazmat – Debris Flows – Disaster Mitigation (i.e. earthquake, hurricane, tornado) tornado) Provides detailed spot forecasts and briefings. Provides detailed spot forecasts and briefings. At NWS Oxnard, Rich Thompson is the IMET. At NWS Oxnard, Rich Thompson is the IMET. – Other forecasters can provide non-wildfire support IMET requests made through GACC IMET requests made through GACC

DebrisFlows

Station Fire Burn Area Feb 6, 2010

Debris Flow Project Introduced winter season of 2005/2006 Introduced winter season of 2005/2006 Focus is Flash Flooding and Debris Flows from recent burn areas Focus is Flash Flooding and Debris Flows from recent burn areas –Typically 2-years old or less –Fires 200 acres or greater as well as smaller fires with significant urban impact

Debris Flow Project USGS develops rainfall thresholds that can trigger debris flows USGS develops rainfall thresholds that can trigger debris flows NWS Oxnard uses thresholds as guidance for issuing Flash Flood products within burn areas NWS Oxnard uses thresholds as guidance for issuing Flash Flood products within burn areas Forecasters available by phone 24/7 Forecasters available by phone 24/7 –On-site support also available to assist incident command team

Interactive Burn Map

QPF Forecast Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Quantitative Precipitation Forecast –Predicted rainfall amounts for 24 hour time period at various points within each county –Forecast intervals are three hours for the first 12-hours and six hours for next 12-hours –Provides users with a description of  Rainfall intensities  Timing of storm system

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 400 AM PST SAT JAN | LOS ANGELESE COUNTY... WFKC1: WEST FORK HELIPORT (Mt Wilson) | LGT LGT BDDC1: BIG DALTON DAM | LGT LGT PCDC1: PACOIMA DAM | LGT LGT SAUC1: SAUGUS | LGT LGT CQT: LOS ANGELES DOWNTOWN (USC) | LGT LGT MLUC1: BIG ROCK MESA | LGT LGT LAC: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY FTHLS/MTNS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS: YES Forecast hour Peak 1-hr rainfall rates

NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard Weather.gov/losangeles Thank you! Questions? David Gomberg, NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard

Record Low Sierra Snowpack

Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index (SAWTi) Produced by Southern California GACC Produced by Southern California GACC Computation based on fuels and weather Computation based on fuels and weather Aids NWS in communicating event severity Aids NWS in communicating event severity Contact Tom Rolinski for questions Contact Tom Rolinski for questions

Weather Activity Planner

2013 California Precipitation ( Percentile Ranking )

2014 California Precipitation (Percentile Ranking)

Eastern Pacific High Pressure Ridge Cause of Record Warmth In place last 2-3 years Similar pattern in

NFDRS Zones

National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) Trend Forecast Issued during peak fire season Issued during peak fire season Provides 24-hour Trend Forecast for the following Provides 24-hour Trend Forecast for the following  Temperature  RH  LAL  Wind  10-hour Fuel Moisture Trend for each weather element is zone averaged Trend for each weather element is zone averaged Burn Index computed from above parameters Burn Index computed from above parameters

2014 California Temperature ( Percentile Ranking )

ROMAN Observations Collective of weather observations grouped by zone Collective of weather observations grouped by zone