EVALUATION OF SATELLITE-DERIVED HIGH RESOLUTION RAINFALL ESTIMATES OVER EASTERN SÃO PAULO AND PARANÁ, BRAZIL Augusto J. Pereira Filho 1 Phillip Arkin 2 Phillip Arkin 2 Joe Turk 3 John E. Janowiak 4 Cesar Beneti 5 Leonardo Calvetti 5 Ricardo Hallak 1 Felipe Vemado 1 1 DAC/IAG, University of São Paulo, Brazil 2 ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park, USA 3 NRL, Marine Meteorology Division, USA 4 Climate Prediction Center/NOAA, USA 5 SIMEPAR, Paraná, Brazil PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland December, 2007

São Paulo Paraná

Background PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland December, 2007

HOURLY ACCUMULATION 2003 and 2004 (mm) (Pereira Filho et al., 2006) PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland December, 2007

TIME OF MAXIMUM RAINFALL (mm) (UTC) 2003 and 2004 (Pereira Filho et al., 2006) PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland December, 2007

3 rd INTERNATIONAL PRECIPITATION WORKING GROUP WORKSHOP October 2006, Melbourne, Australia RADAR X SATELLITE Total Rainfall 1 = Ground Clutter Filtering (2 and 3) 4 = Grind Clutter Contamination 5 = Range Effect 7 = Signal Processing (Pereira Filho et al., 2002)

Program for the Evaluation of High Resolution Precipitation Products (PEHRPP) coordinated by ESSIC and NRL. Goal is to compare and to validate these high resolution datasets. PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland December, 2007

Estimated Observed False alarms Hits Misses Observed yesno yeshits false alarms nomisses correct negatives Estimated Contingency Table (Elbert, 2003)

False alarm ratio Probability of detection Critical success index Bias score Correlation coefficient Root mean square error 2 1 )( 1 i N i i OE N RMSE   

SPWR RAINFALL ESTIMATES X CMORPH, TRMM, PERSIANN and NRL- BLENDED (m) São Paulo, Brazil. Workshop on the EHRPP Geneve, Switzerland, December, 2007

SPWR DATASETS: 10/2005 TO 03/2006; SATELLITE PRECIPITATION DATA: 0.25 DEGREE X 3-HOUR; SYSTEM TYPES: COLD FRONT, RAIN BANDS, ORDINARY CONVECTION COLD FRONT, RAIN BANDS, ORDINARY CONVECTION, SQUALL LINES PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland December, 2007

EXAMPLES PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland December, 2007

COLD FRONT Workshop on the EHRPP Geneve, Switzerland, December, 2007

RAIN BANDS PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland December, 2007

3 rd INTERNATIONAL PRECIPITATION WORKING GROUP WORKSHOP October 2006, Melbourne, Australia ORDINARY CONVECTION

0,1 mm 0,2 mm 1,0 mm 4,0 mm OVERALL RESULTS All data sets available 10/05 to 03/06 PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland December, 2007

DISCUSSION (SP) Coordinate discrepancies;Coordinate discrepancies; Phase and amplitude errors;Phase and amplitude errors; All four methods yielded poor results;All four methods yielded poor results; Radar rainfall accumulation higher than satellite ones;Radar rainfall accumulation higher than satellite ones; Radar data with range effect and other problems;Radar data with range effect and other problems; Best performance for low rainfall accumulation: CMORPH;Best performance for low rainfall accumulation: CMORPH; Best performance for higher accumulation: PERSIANN;Best performance for higher accumulation: PERSIANN; Fewer data for PERSIANN;Fewer data for PERSIANN; All methods are limited;All methods are limited; Need for rain gauges and stream gauges verification.Need for rain gauges and stream gauges verification. PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland December, 2007

PARANA STATE Satellite techniques: CMORPH (Joyce et. al., 2004), PERSIANN (Sorooshian et al., 2000), TRMM (Huffman et. al., 1997), NRLB (Turk et. al., 2003) and CST (Adler e Negri, 1998). Data 141 weather stations over Parana State Methodology 1) Observed and estimated 0.25° spatial resolution over 56°W – 46.75°W and 27°S-21.75°S for 1 day to a month accumulation. 2)Period: January 2003 – December )Rain/non-rain threshold: 0.3mm/day and 20mm/month; 4)Statistics: average, variance, bias, POD FAR, ETS, MSE, correlation coefficient; 5)Hovmoller diagrams. PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland December, 2007

Hovmöller Diagrams GAUGE CMORPH TRMM PERSIANN NRLB CST mm/month

Monthly Accumulation October 2005 May 2005 BIAS POD FAR COR RMSE GAUGE AVE SAT AVE GAUGE VAR SAT VAR NRLB CST GAUGE NRLBCST TRMM mm/month BIAS 0.95 POD 0.95 FAR 0.00 COR 0.79 RMSE GAUGE AVE SAT AVE GAUGE VAR SAT VAR TRMM Observed Estimated

Monthly Accumulations - Spatial BIAS (Jan/ Dec/2005)

Daily Accumulation November 17th, 2003 May 12th, 2004 BIAS 1.05 POD 0.99 FAR 0.05 COR 0.64 RMSE GAUGE AVE SAT AVE GAUGE VAR SAT VAR 8.59 BIAS 0.99 POD 0.96 FAR 0.03 COR 0.75 RMSE GAUGE AVE SAT AVE GAUGE VAR SAT VAR CMORPH TRMM Observed Estimated Observed Estimated

Discussion (PR) Hovmöller diagrams indicate good agreement between satellite-derived estimates and gauges, though amplitude differences are significant. Monthly satellite-derived accumulations better for January, May and October. Daily values highly variable. PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland December, 2007

3 rd INTERNATIONAL PRECIPITATION WORKING GROUP WORKSHOP October 2006, Melbourne, Australia Polarimetric Data Sets

Mobile Weather Radar Doppler Dual X-band (MXPOL) Hydrometeorology Lab (LabHidro) – Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences (IAG), University of São Paulo.

MXPOL 4,5 o PPI at 2119 UTC on 26 April ZhZh VrVr W K dp  o hv

SPWR 3-km CAPPI 1-km x 1-km resolution at 1616 UTC on 22 May MXPOL at (23 o 33.4’S; 46 o 44.1’W). São Paulo City sounding (83779) at 1200 UTC on 22 May 2007.

MXPOL vertical profiles at 1616 UTC on 22 May Full clockwise antenna scan (6.0 o s o, pulse width = 0.2  s, PRF=1000 Hz and 256 samples,  z=35m. Vertical profile - Z h Vertical profile - W Vertical profile - V r

MXPOL vertical profiles at 1616 UTC on 22 May Full clockwise antenna scan (6.0 o s o, pulse width = 0.2  s, PRF=1000 Hz and 256 samples,  z=35m. Vertical profile - K dp Vertical profile - Z dr Vertical profile -  o hv Vertical profile -  dp

THE END Work supported by: FAPESP and CNPq (BRAZIL) FAPESP and CNPq (BRAZIL) NCAR and ESSIC (USA) NCAR and ESSIC (USA) WMO WMO PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland December, 2007