Roma 19/12/2012 Wheat world trade volatility Main issues An increasing demand World trade growth Lower stocks compared to consumption Increasing volatility.

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Presentation transcript:

Roma 19/12/2012 Wheat world trade volatility Main issues An increasing demand World trade growth Lower stocks compared to consumption Increasing volatility of the supply from exporters The financialization of agricultural markets Roma 19/12/2012 Cyrille Schweizer

Roma 19/12/2012 World use of wheat

Roma 19/12/2012 World consumption of wheat Source CIC (surfaces) et FranceAgriMer (rendements)

Roma 19/12/2012 World trade growth

Roma 19/12/2012 World wheat trade

Roma 19/12/2012 Global wheat imports

Roma 19/12/2012 Production, consumption and imports from other regions

Roma 19/12/2012 Better yields everywhere

Roma 19/12/2012 Lower stocks compared to world consumption

Roma 19/12/2012 Average wheat production and consumption for 1960/70 and 2001/10 Average Average Production267,5616,7 Consumption262,9616,6 Stocks84,8160,2 Exports52,9118,2 Stocks /consumption32%26% (Mt, source USDA)

Roma 19/12/2012 (Mt, source CIC) Wheat: World Production, consumption and stocks since 1960

Roma 19/12/2012 The 2007/08 crisis (en Mt, source CIC)

Roma 19/12/2012 Dependence rate (or self-sufficiency) of « other countries» Imports (percentage of consumption share)

Roma 19/12/2012 Variability of exports from 1995 to 2011

Roma 19/12/2012 Conclusion Rising fluctuations in the market are the result of structural changes in supply, offer, trade and stocks; These fundamentals became stronger in 2010/11 due to political and cyclical factors; Financial funds have only worsened the issue and have also made the evolution more erratic.

Roma 19/12/ P aris Contracts (NYSE-Euronext) (Thousand)