Model Description Sample Results Next Steps Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions)

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Presentation transcript:

Model Description Sample Results Next Steps

Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Scenario Analysis DASM-T Scenario Analysis DASM-T

Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Scenario Analysis DASM-T Scenario Analysis DASM-T

Prisoner’s Point Holland Cut Victoria Canal

Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Scenario Analysis DASM-T Scenario Analysis DASM-T

Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Scenario Analysis DASM-T Scenario Analysis DASM-T

Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Scenario Analysis DASM-T Scenario Analysis DASM-T

Holland Cut Victoria Canal Prisoner’s Point Forecast Observed Scenario B TurbidityTurbidity TimeTime Scenario A Scenario C Delta Map Increasing Exports

Background Sample Results Next Steps

14

Neural network trained to emulate DSM2 turbidity fate and transport Training data developed from 12 DSM2 simulations – 36 years (water years ) Applicable for adult smelt pre-spawning period (December-February). Assumes DCC gates are closed and south Delta barriers not installed. Training process: 60% calibration; 20% validation; 20% testing

Background Model Description Next Steps

Background Model Description Sample Results

DASM-T will be integrated into tools suite during the pilot forecasts beginning this winter. DASM-T will be publically available. DWR has tentatively agreed to pilot the forecasting procedure this winter. We encourage USFWS staff, as well as the DSWG, to pilot DASM-T.

Dr. Sujoy Roy, Tetra Tech, Inc. Dr. Limin Chen, Tetra Tech, Inc.

LocationDailyMonthly Ф1Ф1 Ф2Ф2 R2R2 Ф1Ф1 Ф2Ф2 R2R2 Sacramento Rio Vista Old Quimby Island Old Bacon Island San Joaquin Prisoner’s Point Middle Holt Clifton Court Forebay Entrance