Preston Smith Principal Owner Business Information Services, LLC

Completed more than 200 studies and school district projects in 12 states since years as a reporter, 5 years in Washington Master’s in Public Administration and Statistics 2 years as a performance auditor for City of Kansas City. 10 years as a data manager and “efficiency expert”

Our high-end growth is 15%, medium range is 10% and low-end is 5%. There will be some slight increases in some years.

Our high-end growth is 15%, medium range is 10% and low-end is 5%. There will be some slight increases in some years.

We do not see a pattern of sustained, large, enrollment growth because there are too many factors that can inhibit growth: Weak birth rate Extremely weak projected growth in the number of school-age children. (Decrease of 390 children or 4% by 2024) Also, we see the number of under-5-year- old children decreasing.

Low Births But predictability is only 18%

Diversity increased substantially in 10 years

School-age population patterns appear weak for the next decade.

A large decrease in the childbearing-age cohorts.

Fairly stable percentage of public school “market share”

Enrollment at private schools in the area has decreased by about 500 students during just the last two years.

A wide range of unemployment rate in the district.

Highest Unemployment in Eastern Jackson County

A bright spot? Only 8.9% have commutes more than 45 minutes.

Assessed values in the Raytown School District have trended down since 2006

Our calculations show that the current buildings should adequately hold the students

By , our high-end projection shows that there could be 10,241 students enrolled. Again, they should fit in the district--barely.

If there were no changes in the grade configurations or boundaries, then by 2025 the buildings would need about 102,180 sq. ft. of additional space to meet the top-end of the enrollment projections.

We estimate that even if 30 PK students were added to each Elementary School, there still would be excess capacity for students during the next five years, but some boundary lines would need to be adjusted.

Virtually no new residential construction