Heliospheric Modeling at the CCMC and possible ways these modeling efforts can be improved MacNeice and Taktakishvili SHINE June 26, 2012

Heliospheric Model Inventory CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling Center) – Serve model runs to both science and operational forecasting communities – ISWA – WSA WSA/ENLIL CORHEL (MAS/MAS, MAS/ENLIL, WSA/MAS, WSA/ENLIL) SWMF HelTomo

Status – Ambient Timelines at 1AU Model error is inherited from coronal models Arrival times of slow/fast wind transitions and current sheet crossings have typical timing errors or order 24 hours. Fieldline connectivities to solar surface challenged by lack of low latitude open flux in static models Some models have had more effective tuning for different magnetogram sources All Helio MHD models ‘fudge’ the current sheet and so Bz cannot be trusted None of the Helio models give T that can be used for anything right now

Status – Time Dependent ENLIL Cone Model (with WSA or in CORHEL) and HelTomo Sandro has published ICME ‘arrival time’ and ‘impact on magnetosphere’ analyses Arrival time errors average 6 – 8 hours with big spread ( hours) Impact on magnetosphere too severe by a factor or  2

Improvements ? Ensemble forecasting – Based on variety of magnetogram sources – Based on different cone model parameters – Appropriate for WSA/ENLIL, CORHEL and SWMF – Use of Heliographic Imager data or HelTomo output to initialize heliosphere or even to support assimilation strategy – Blobs as markers of CIRs – launch artificial blobs with observed statistical pattern and compare synthetic HI images with observation to select best model from ensemble SWMF still needs an ICME feature Adding shock driver SEP model to ENLIL