State Election Preview 2016 Tim Storey National Conference of State Legislatures March 30, 2016.

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Presentation transcript:

State Election Preview 2016 Tim Storey National Conference of State Legislatures March 30, 2016

Party Control Shifts Chambers Democrat Gains Republican Gains Ties Alabama House & Senate Colorado House Indiana House Iowa House Louisiana Senate Maine House & Senate Michigan House Minnesota House & Senate Mississippi House Montana House New Hampshire House & Senate New York Senate North Carolina House & Senate Ohio House Pennsylvania House Wisconsin Assembly & Senate Oregon House Virginia Senate

Party Control Shifts Chambers Colorado House Maine House Maine Senate Minnesota House Minnesota Senate New Hampshire House New York Senate* Oregon House Alaska Senate Arkansas House Arkansas Senate Wisconsin Senate Washington Senate* Democrat GainsRepublican Gains

Party Control Shifts Chambers Colorado Senate Maine Senate Minnesota House Nevada Assembly Nevada Senate New Hampshire House New Mexico House New York Senate Washington Senate West Virginia House West Virginia Senate Democrat Gains Republican Gains

President's Party in Mid-Term Elections Seats Gained/Lost

62.6% Republican Share of Seats in the South

State Legislatures 2016 Democrat - 11 Split - 8 Nonpartisan Republican - 30

Legislative Seats Held by Party

Governor Party 2016 Democrat - 18 Republican - 31 Independent- 1

State Governments 2016 Democrat - 7 Divided - 20 Nonpartisan Republican- 22

State Elections 2016 House Only--4 No 2014 Elections--4 Governor Election--12

State Legislative Battlegrounds 2016

Governor 2016: Races to Watch Lean Democrat = 1 Lean Republican = 2 Toss Up = 4 Likely and Solid Seats ( = 2 = 3)

Final Thoughts… Top of the Ticket Presidential Year Turnout GOP vs. GOP success Changing Electorate Stakes are Yuge

State Election Preview 2016 Tim Storey

17

President's Party in Presidential Elections Seats Gained/Lost

Tim Storey

20 Control of Southern Legislatures--1992

21 Control of Southern Legislatures--2014

Seat Changes by Region 2010 to R +170 D +32 D +12 D

State Legislatures Pre-Election 2014 Democrat- 19 Split- 3 Nonpartisan Republican- 27

Seat Changes by Region 2012 to R + 49 R + 30 R R