1 GRI NW Investment project in progress Cross-border gas transmission‏ Update on Investment project I1 GRI NW Focus at Virtual Test (Business Simulation) And Manual 25 March 2009 “It’s about dialogue to come to ‘common thinking’, not 100% exact figures or harmonization” Project is delivered in co-operation with I2

2 GRI NW Investment project in progress Outline update 1. Recap project goals 2. Interim results 3. Zoom at Virtual Test (outcomes) 4. Way forward in 2009

3 GRI NW Investment project in progress 3 NW GRI Project Objectives (*): By end 2008: understand existing incentives on TSOs to make additional capacity available efficiently By end 2009: an agreed regional framework for new cross border (**) investments should be in place By end 2009: begin to establish and implement co-ordinated incentive mechanisms Success Criteria summary: Efficient TSOs can recover their costs & earn a reasonable return commensurate with risk Adequate cross-border investment leading to increased trade & greater price convergence Regulatory regimes support investment in capacity beyond contractual commitments from network users, if adequate * A Vision and a Roadmap for the Gas Regional Initiative North West, 4 April 2008 * Based on ‘A Vision and a Roadmap for the Gas Regional Initiative North West’, 4 April 2008 * * Leading to in/decrease of capacity at a regional interconnection point 1. Reminder roadmap: this project is about path to agreed regional investment framework…

4 GRI NW Investment project in progress Work in progress 2. Interim results: where do we stand? Manual: - status quo reg. practices on investment (instrumental to VT) - First version to be presented at 19 May workshop Dublin Report on incentives: - Minimized (due to resources) to a (PP-)report, delivered at February Brussels workshop. Virtual test case: February kick off delivered support in form of core & reference teams and agreed techniques Route virtual pipeline agreed - 1 direction from GE – F via NL-BE; 3 hub products (based on GE-NL-BE- FR); 10 – 20 bcm with pipe sizes 36, 46 inch, core group to translate workshop discussion on key reg. and investment parameters in “Excel” and “Word” for discussion in Dublin workshop.

5 GRI NW Investment project in progress 5 Base Case: 2-3 parameters differ from today: ‘market test’, ‘Risk dialogue’. Innovative Case: All parameters are allowed to vary Reality Greenfield thinking Keys to success: -Simplicity (executable in given resources) -Balance between realism and sufficient distance to reality in order to have open dialogue in “reasonable comfort” on risk distribution. -Numbers can be realistic but not necessarily exact. Results expected: Minimum: common thinking becomes transparent – id est pragmatic insight in fundamental drivers of all us involved in getting investments done (where required) Maximum: consideration of implementing pragmatic solutions to any encountered bottlenecks or improvements during the test simulation Current projects Only via laboratory ‘Tilburg’ experiment, to learn for main case process.. 3. Zoom at virtual test (prediction outcomes at account of projectleader) Focus: The main test…

6 GRI NW Investment project in progress 4. Way forward in 2009 Core and reference group work in progress  29 April ‘documentation’ workshop Dublin ready 19 May workshop in Dublin  Discuss work results so far and decide homework (incl. Who) for September 9 June stakeholder group  Investment on agenda (in co-operation with OS) September workshop  Moment to present and check outcomes of the simulation November workshop  Discuss final conclusions and recommendations December  Final results communicated

7 GRI NW Investment project in progress Thank you!