Measuring Public Opinion

#10  Gallup polling has evolved since 1932  Has become a big business

#9  Sampling of 1,000-1,500 accurately represents “the universe of potential voters”

#8  Accuracy from random sampling  Everyone should have an equal probability of being selected as a part of that sample

#7  A sampling error (level of confidence in the results)  +/- 3 percent  95% of the time the poll results are within 3% of what the entire population thinks  Accurate representation NOT number of responses, is the most important feature of a public opinion survey

#6 Computer and telephone technology has made surveying less expensive and more commonplace Random-digit dialing  home phones not cell phones  Internet polling increasing

#5  Politicians can make midcourse corrections based on poll results  Allowing for public desires to be heard at times other than elections DEMOCRACY IN ACTION?  “removed power out of the hands of special interest groups…and given people who wouldn’t normally have a voice a voice.”

#4  Politicians more considered with FOLLOWING rather than LEADING?  “track public opinion not to make policy but rather to determine how to craft their public presentations and win public support for the policies they support.”  How to strengthen the message

#3  Create a bandwagon effect?  Merely supporting a candidate just because they see others are doing so  Issues drowned out by poll results?

#2  EXIT POLLING  Most widely criticized  Asking every 10 th person how he/she voted  Allowing TV stations to project results before ballots are counted  Discourages some people from voting…affecting state and local races

#1  Carefully evaluating how questions are posed  Don’t take poll results as solid fact

What does this all mean?  Jefferson believed Americans had good sense and that education could enable them to take citizenship more seriously…  We live in the most information-rich society YET  Level of public knowledge about politics is dismally low  Less than ½ Americans can name their state reps  Lack a basic awareness of the world around us  Role of Media again?  We don’t remember much vs. lack of meaningful information presented

Results  American public has become increasingly dissatisfied with government over the past 5 decades  Cynicism helps to keep politicians on their toes  Consent of the governed…system serving us well?  CONCLUSION:  Public Polls are  important tools for democracy (what the public thinks)  Evaluating how well informed are we? Page 210