Pakistan

Pakistani Government and History of Political Instability

Civil War Pakistan begins as two separate and divided states East Pakistan is more populous; West Pakistan houses government East Pakistan declares independence from West Pakistan in 1971 Civil war erupts; East Pakistan wins, becomes new nation of Bangladesh

Politics Pakistan goes back and forth from being a democracy and being ruled by a military dictator after a coup. Pakistani politics have a tradition of being underhanded, violent, and volatile.

Pakistan Politics Jinnah (1947)>> <<Zulfikar Bhutto (1973-77) Benazir Bhutto>> (1988-90, 93-96) Sharif (1990-93, 97-99) Zardari (now) << Musharraf (1999-2008)

Pakistani Leadership 1947-1948 Muhammed Ali Jinnah Governor General 1948-1951 Liaquat Ali Khan Prime Minister 1951-1958 Six Different Prime Ministers 1958-1969 General Ayub Khan President Pakistani Leadership: 1947 - 1969 Austin 2006

Pakistani Leadership 1969-1973 General Yahya Khan Military Leadership 1973-1977 Zulfigar Ali Bhutto Prime Minister 1977-1988 General Zia ul-Haq President Pakistani Leadership: 1969 - 1988 Austin 2006

Pakistani Leadership 1988-1990 Benazir Bhutto 1993-1996 Prime Minister 1990-1993 Nawaz Sharif 1997-1999 Prime Minister 1999-2008 General Pervez Musharraf 2008-Present Zardari Pakistani Leadership: 1988 - present Austin 2006

History of Pakistan’s Political Leaders 1948: Muhammad Ali Jinnah, founding father of Pakistan, dies 1951: Jinnah’s successor, Liaquat Ali Khan is assassinated. 1956: Constitution proclaims Pakistan as Islamic Republic. 1958: General Ayyub Khan becomes president. 1969: General Yahya Khan takes over in a coup. 1973: Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (Benazir’s father) becomes PM. 1979: General Zia ul-Haq overthrows and hangs Bhutto in a military coup & becomes president. Daughter Benazir goes into exile, returns in 1986. 1988: Gen. Zia dies in mysterious plane crash. Bhutto’s Pakistan’s Peoples Party wins election & she becomes PM. 1990: Benazir Bhutto is dismissed as PM on charges of incompetence & corruption.

History of Pakistan’s Leaders Continued 1991: PM Nawaz Sharif begins economic liberalization. 1993: PM Sharif resigns under pressure from military. General election brings Bhutto back to power. 1996: President Leghari dismisses Bhutto’s government amid corruption allegations. 1996: Nawaz Sharif returns as PM after his Pakistan Muslim League wins elections. 1999: Bhutto and her husband are convicted of corruption and sentenced. Benazir flees to exile. Later that year Sharif is overthrown by General Pervez Musharraf in a military coup. 2002: Musharraf grants himself new powers including the right to dismiss parliament. 2007: Bhutto’s and Sharif’s parties protest Musharraf. Musharraf takes over media and communication networks. 2008: Musharraf forced to step down in face of impeachment 2011: Musharraf indicted for assassination of Benazir Bhutto

A Pattern of Instability Many different governments rule Pakistan, non achieve stability Benazir Bhutto leads Pakistan in 1980s and 1990s but is ousted. The military now rules. Bhutto is assassinated in 2007. U.S. President George W. Bush condemned the assassination in a 27 December press conference.

General Ayub Khan 1958-1969 Pakistan’s first military ruler Popular reforms won him reelection in 1960 Martial law ended with 1962 constitution Resigned in 1969 and gave power to Gen. Yahya Khan General Khan was the first military ruler of Pakistan www.frontlineonnet.com Austin 2006

General Yahya Khan 1969-1971 Immediately declared martial law and made himself president Held the first general elections of Pakistan in Dec. 1970 Differences between East and West Pakistan led to civil war and Bangladesh’s independence General Khan declared martial law and made himself president. www.thestoryofpakistan.com Austin 2006

Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto 1971 Leader of the most popular party Became president when Yahya Khan resigned in August 1973, and a new constitution went into effect. Bhutto resigned from the presidency to become prime minister Later was overthrown and hanged http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/319906.stm President when Yahya Khan resigned. He later resigned the presidency to become prime minister. He was overthrown and hanged. Austin 2006

Gen. Muhammad Zia-ul-Hag 1977-1985 Enforced Martial Law for the third time in the short Pakistani history Commissioned in the British Army in World War II and served in Burma, Malaya and Indonesia General Zia enforced martial law for the third time in Pakistani history. His military training influenced his appearance and actions. http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pk/html Austin 2006

General Zia-ul-Haq Joined Pakistani army when Pakistan became independent. Appointed by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto as Chief of Army Staff, superseding five senior Generals. Carried out a bloodless coup overthrowing Bhutto's government and enforced Martial Law in the country. Overthrew Bhutto’s government and declared martial law. Austin 2006

Benazir Bhutto 1988-1990; 1993-1996 Educated at Ratcliff and Oxford Detained and imprisoned for leadership of Pakistan Peoples Party Pledged to focus on health, social welfare and education Daughter of Zulfiqar Bhutto. Educated in the United States and Great Britain. www.cia.gov/cia/publicantions/factbood/geos/pk/html Austin 2006

Benazir Bhutto First woman to head government of an Islamic state Deposed in 1990 by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan who dissolved parliament to force an election. Re-elected in 1993 and dismissed three years later First woman to head the government of an Islamic state http://www.wic.org/bio/bbhutto.htm Austin 2006

Nawaq Sharif 1990-1993; 1997-1999 Two non-consecutive terms as prime minister First term: platform of conservative government to end corruption. Returned to power in 1997, changed the constitution. http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pk.html Like Benazir Bhutto, served two non-consecutive terms. Austin 2006

Nawaq Sharif South Asia’s first motorway linked Lahore and Islamabad. Nuclear tests on May 28, 1998, responded to Indian nuclear tests Unpopular after “Kargil War,” at the time Pakistan and India were negotiating peace. Overthrown in 1999, exiled to Saudi Arabia Major motorway, nuclear test, Kargil War Sharif taking oath as P.M. for second time http://www.storyofpakistan.com/articletext.asp?artid=A088 Austin 2006

Pervez Musharraf 2001-2008 Became de facto Head of Government after bloodless coup d’état Supreme Court ordered elections and referendum National Assembly had plurality in favor of Musharraf-deadlocked Head of government after bloodless coup. http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pk/html Austin 2006

Pervez Musharraf 2001-2008 Vote of confidence in 2004 for term through 2007 Sided with United States against Taliban Declared that exiled leaders could not return for general elections. Gave use of three air bases to United States Served as both Army Chief and President Current leader of Pakistan Austin 2006

Gen. Pervex Musharaff Coup d’etat. Secular government against Islamic fundamentalists. U.S. ally in the “War on Terror.”

The Musharraf Era Musharraf came to power in a 1999 military coup, self appointed as president in 2001. Enjoyed western support due to his announced intentions in 2002 to combat extremists in Pakistan. Legitimacy of his rule is dubious - In 2007 he suspended the constitution and jailed several supreme court members before they were about to evaluate the validity of his election. During Musharraf’s time Pakistan enjoyed impressive economic performance. Musharraf’s approval rating plummeted to 15%.

Pakistan, The U.S. and the War on Terror US supported Pakistan and Musharraf ever since he pledged to be an ally to the US in the war on terror. US placed its faith in Musharraf by appropriating over $10B in foreign aid since 9/11. Stark contrast to the sanctions US had against Pakistan before Musharraf pledged his support. Question now is whether or not the US should have continued to support Musharraf since he became widely unpopular and Illegitimate.

President Prime Minister Asif Ali Zardari Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani

Effects: Suffering Economy Economy suffered from decades of internal political disputes a fast growing population mixed levels of foreign investment a costly, ongoing confrontation with neighboring India

Nuclear Rivalry Between Pakistan and India

Nuclear Power: India-Pakistan Indian Nuclear Power Plants Pakistani Nuclear Power Plants

India Weapon of Mass Destruction India does possess nuclear weapons and maintains short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, nuclear-capable aircraft, surface ships, and submarines under development as possible delivery systems and platforms. Although it lacks an operational ballistic missile submarines India has ambitions of possessing a nuclear triad in the near future.

India Weapon of Mass Destruction India tested a nuclear device in 1974 (code-named "Smiling Buddha"), which it called a "peaceful nuclear explosive." India performed further nuclear tests in 1998 (code-named "Operation Shakti").

The India-Pakistan Arms Race Heats Up in the Late 1990s

THE “ISLAMIC BOMB” PAKISTAN EXPLODED ITS FIRST NUCLEAR DEVICE IN DESERT IN 1998. DR. A.Q. KHAN RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS SECRET DEVELOPMENT, AND SHARED TECHNOLOGY WITH “ROGUE STATES” LIKE LIBYA, NORTH KOREA, MAYBE OTHERS

Supporters of former Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee chant nationalist slogans in support for his nuclear policy - 1998

1998: India tested their first nuclear weapon 1998: India tested their first nuclear weapon. Pakistan followed with nuclear tests.

Former Indian Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, displays a sword given to him by Sikh youths in New Delhi to honor him for making India a nuclear power - 1998

Right-wing Pakistani Activists Burn Indian Flag to Protest Indian Nuclear Tests - 1998

Hot Air Balloon Protesting India & Pakistan’s nuclear testing - 1998

2002 Military Statistics

India Displays Nuclear Missiles During “Republic Day,” - 2002

India Successfully Tested Agni Missiles - 2002

2002 Nuclear Statistics

Musharraf and Vajpayee at a meeting on nuclear issues in Nepal in 2002

Pakistan Kashmir Conflict (SFC Fitzpatric) Here are some charts from different sources that illustrate military spending by both India and Pakistan. The conflict in Kashmir is a hot button issue for the militaries of both sides. Pakistan in particular is economically weaker than India, so military spending there takes money away from their budget that could be used in a variety of different ways such as to improve governance or develop their country for future economic gains, a higher standard of living for their people, and improving stability through better government programs. Even with the immense spending changes from 2001 all the way up to 2010, the Pakistani military is in a no-win situation where India is concerned. The fact that they are both nuclear powers leaves the rest of the world wondering about the possibility of a nuclear strike, and the US and allies fear the possibility of a destabilized Pakistan where VEOs seize power and a nuclear arsenal along with it.

Threat of Taliban to Pakistan

Taliban Connections Rooted in Pakistan The Taliban emerged as a powerful movement in late 1994 when Pakistan chose the Taliban to guard a convoy trying to open a trade route from Pakistan to Central Asia. With Pakistan providing weapons, military training, and financial support, the Taliban gained control over several Afghan cities and successfully captured Kabul in September 1996

Taliban Connections to Pakistan Pakistani support for the Taliban is based on strong religious and ethnic bonds between the Taliban and Pakistan, especially with the tribal areas on the North-West borders of Pakistan. Most of the Taliban’s leaders were educated in refugee camps in Pakistan where they had escaped the Soviet invasion. Taliban militants are Sunni Muslim Pashtuns, and Pashtuns constitute thirteen percent of the total population of Pakistan. Pashtuns dominate the Pakistani military and are concentrated in the North-West Frontier province, which was the command center for the Mujahedeen groups fighting the Soviet troops and a major destination for the Afghan refugees

Taliban Connections to Pakistan Pakistani Taliban members have been involved: In insurgent activity and terrorist attacks inside Afghanistan Trained the Times Square bomber Faisal Shehzad Participated in numerous suicide bombings and urban guerrilla attacks inside Pakistan including the siege at the Pakistan Naval Base Mehran in Karachi

Pakistani Taliban Alliance with Al-Qaeda Dates back to the Soviet-Afghan War Taliban has provided shelter to Al-Qaeda leaders Has been operationally active with the terrorist group Vowed to avenge the killing of Osama Bin Laden Vows to continue the war with the USA

Taliban Moves to Pakistan In October 2001, thousands of Pakistani Pakthun tribesmen were mobilized for armed action and crossed the Durand Line into Afghanistan to resist both the American and NATO forces. For example, Sufi Mohammed, a Pakhtun cleric and leader of the Movement for the Enforcement of Islamic Law infiltrated Afghanistan with about 10,000 boys and young men.

Taliban Moves to Pakistan The arrival in tribal areas of the Afghan’s Taliban and Al-Qaeda’s senior leadership along with hundreds of Afghan, Arab, Chechen, Uzbek, East Asian, and Sudanese fighters in Pakistan distributed millions of dollars among the tribal elders for shelter Al-Qaeda as been leasing compounds from the tribesmen to establish training camps and command and control centers.

Taliban Moves to Pakistan In 2002, when the Pakistani Army invaded the tribal areas, it transformed the existing widespread militancy into a full-blown insurgency. This has since spread throughout Pakistan

The war spills over into Pakistan Pakistani military intelligence manipulation of the Afghanistan war - from the 1980s onward Taliban and Haqqani Network across the Pakistani border provinces Cross-border illicit trade US operations in Pakistan CIA and Special Forces assassination teams CIA drone bombings The assassination of Osama Bin Laden

Refugees Afghans constitute the largest single refugee population in the world with an estimated 6 million people or 30 percent of the global refugee population. The population has been greatly affected by a refugee problem for years. Large numbers of Afghans are refugees in Pakistan.

Refugees Pakistan has received the most

Pakistani Taliban Numbers There are about 40 militant groups with a combined membership between 30,000 and 35,000. They are decentralized and do not always agree. They use social networks to recruit, raise funds, and to harass people.

Why Pakistani Men Join the Taliban Recruit young men by offering them access to and membership in social networks, money, power, and respect Many are young unemployed men who have had no access to education or jobs Brainwash the men during the interactions For example, many of the suicide bombers are poor, uneducated students in their early teens

Why Pakistani Men Join the Taliban Existing poverty from an ongoing lack of infrastructure The government’s inability to provide education and fair legal system aid recruitment efforts Most join because they are poor and feel that the government does not care about them. For example, in 2009, the average salary of a low-level Taliban member was $180 a month, while in other areas it was as high as $240 a month

Why Pakistan Men Join the Taliban The government’s inability to provide better shelter and services to the refugees in the camps have aided recruitment. Young men frustrated by the preventable deaths of family members due to pneumonia and diarrhea join the Taliban The Taliban provides swift and free justice in hostile areas

Why Pakistani Men Join the Taliban They sometimes use abduction and other coercive tactics to recruit fighters and quell dissent. In early 2007, they began forcing school children to sign up for suicide bombing missions by kidnapping 30 children

Why Pakistani Men Join the Taliban The Pakistani Army when fighting against the insurgents have killed many civilians and this has led to the people joining the Taliban for revenge For example, in 2009, 1,150 civilians were killed during Pakistan Army actions The Pakistani Army also alienates locals by arbitrary arrests, illegal detentions, unlawful killings, deliberate property damage, executing people without trials

BBC, 2009