Review hospitals were rated on several characteristics including daily patient volume and nurse-to- patient ratio, where a daily patient volume of 200 and a nurse-to-patient ratio of 3.0 are considered to be high 16 hospitals had a daily patient volume of at least 200; one-third of the hospitals had a nurse-to- patient ratio of at least 3.0; and seven of the hospitals had both a nurse-to-patient ratio of at least 3.0 and a daily patient volume of at least 200
Review a) Find the probability of a hospital having a daily patient volume of at least 200; a nurse-to-patient ratio of at least 3.0; and both a nurse-to-patient ratio of at least 3.0 and a daily patient volume of at least 200
Review b) What is the probability that a hospital had either a daily patient volume of at least 200 a nurse-to-patient ratio of at least 3.0 or had both?
Review c) What is the probability that a hospital did not have a daily patient volume of at least 200 or a nurse-to-patient ratio of at least 3.0?
Review Construct a joint probability table
Review Inpatient volume / nurse-patient ratio High Inpatient Volume (PV) Inpatient Volume Not High (PV C ) Total High Nurse-to- Patient Ratio (NPR) Nurse-to-Patient Ratio Not High (NPR C ) Total
Review A company is expanding a retail store and is considering two different build options: 1) add a second floor, 2) expand the ground floor layout. Based on market analysis, the company has estimated that sales will be impacted in different ways by the build option that is selected and by overall macro economic conditions: 1) strong economic growth, 2) moderate economic growth, 3) weak economic growth
Review Construct a payoff table for the problem
Review a) Construct a decision tree for the problem
Review b) If the decision-maker has no information about the state of nature probabilities, what are the build decisions for the optimistic, conservative, and min-max regret approaches?
Review
Review What is the EV associated with each decision?
Review What is the EOL associated with each decision?
Review What is the EVPI?
Review A winery is considering two varieties of white grapes: Chardonnay and Riesling. There is a lot of uncertainty about demand for the different wines. Management is considering three possibilities: 1) Chardonnay grapes only, 2) Riesling grapes only, and 3) both grape types. Management has developed demand forecasts for two different demand possibilities, strong and weak
16 Review Riesling Demand Weak Riesling Demand Strong Chardonnay Demand Weak Chardonnay Demand Strong Demand Projections
17 Review Riesling Demand Weak Riesling Demand Strong Chardonnay Demand Weak $22,000$40,000 Chardonnay Demand Strong $26,000$60,000 Revenue Projections Plant Chardonnay Only: $20,000 $70,000 Weak Demand Strong Demand Plant Riesling Only: $25,000 $45,000 Plant Chardonnay and Riesling
Review a)What is the decision to be made? What is the chance event? What is the consequence? Create a decision tree
19 Review Char. demand weak Char. demand strong W, W W, S S, W S, S 20 Ries. demand strong Ries. demand weak Char. only Ries. only both
Review c)What are the EVs associated with the different decisions?
Review c)What are the EVs associated with the different decisions?
Review d)Assume that (S, W) changes from 0.25 to 0.05 and (S, S) changes from 0.2 to 0.4. How does this change the decision? Riesling Demand Weak Riesling Demand Strong Chardonnay Demand Weak Chardonnay Demand Strong
23 Review Char. demand weak Char. demand strong W, W W, S S, W S, S 20 Ries. demand strong Ries. demand weak Char. only Ries. only both
Review
Review e)Supposed profit projections for the case when demand for Chardonnay is strong when Chardonnay only grapes are planted changes from $70K to $50. If we use the original probabilities (not d), what is the best decision?
26 Review Char. demand weak Char. demand strong W, W W, S S, W S, S 20 Ries. demand strong Ries. demand weak Char. only Ries. only both
Review
Review 10-transshipment (Figure 10.4 in book) 28 A company has 2 manufacturing plants (one in Atlanta and one in Denver). The components from the manufacturing plants are sent to two different warehouses (one in Kansas City and one in Louisville). From the warehouses the product is shipped to four different retail outlets in Detroit, Miami, Dallas, and New Orleans
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Review 10-transshipment (Figure 10.4 in book) 30 Formulate the LP for the problem (OF)
Review 10-transshipment (Figure 10.4 in book) 31 Supply or origin constraints
Review 10-transshipment (Figure 10.4 in book) 32 Balance / flow constraints for transshipment nodes
Review 10-transshipment (Figure 10.4 in book) 33 Demand or destination constraints