International Agreements: from Kyoto to Paris

What were the strengths and weaknesses of the failed Kyoto Protocol and does the Paris Agreement of 2015 keep the strengths and fix the weaknesses without generating new problems?

UNFCCC: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change –1992: treaty signed at Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit –Objective: Stabilize GHG concentrations to prevent dangerous “interference with the climate system” –Non-binding goal: GHG emissions at 1990 levels by 2000 –“Common but differentiated responsibilities”: rich countries take first and bigger steps Aldy and Stavins (2007)

Rich countries: cut emmisions to 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2012 “The Kyoto Protocol (written in 1997)…came into force in February 2005 and began to restrict emissions for ratified countries in 2008, (it) represents the first significant multinational attempt to curb the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that are changing the global climate.” (Olmstead and Stavins, 2012)

Only developed countries were asked to accept targets for emissions.

(Wikimedia Commons) Only developed (“Annex 1”) countries were asked to accept targets for emissions.

A major weakness of the KP was the failure to limit emissions from developing countries— they have rapidly developed since, with matching increases in emissions. Historic CO 2 emissions from 1990 to 2010 of developed (Annex B) and developing (non-Annex B) countries with emissions allocated to production/territorial (as in the Kyoto Protocol) and the consumption of goods and services (production plus imports minus exports) Peters et al. 2012

In dev’g countries: production emissions EXCEED consumption emissions. In dev’d countries, opposite. Historic CO 2 emissions from 1990 to 2010 of developed (Annex B) and developing (non-Annex B) countries with emissions allocated to production/territorial (as in the Kyoto Protocol) and the consumption of goods and services (production plus imports minus exports) Peters et al. 2012

The Paris Agreement France Diplomatie, Nov. 11, 2013

The Paris Agreement is a 16-page, 29-Article document completed 12/12/15 at COP-21.

The PA includes goals regarding mitigation, adaptation, and finance.

Mitigation commitments are cast as NDCs Article 4:

International trade of permits to meet NDCs is ok Article 6:

Assessments of NDCs by country reveal leaders and laggards climateactiontracker.org/countries.html

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Aggregate NDCs to date are insufficient to meet 2 o goal climateactiontracker.org

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