Conservative and Labor Party Leaders Expected to Fall, While UKIP and SNP Leadership Gain Influence BREXIT KEY PLAYERS June 29, 2016 | Ben Booker Source: BBC, “Who’s Up and Who’s Down: How Referendum Players Did,” June 24, PlayerPartyBrexit Stance Role and Influence Prime Minister David Cameron ConservativeRemainCalled for referendum to silence critics within Conservatives and UKIP about leaving E.U. Will resign as PM in October and will be succeeded by a member of the Conservative Party Cameron will initiate negotiations with E.U. over withdrawal Jeremy CorbynLaborRemainLabor Party leader and major opponent to Conservatives Commands shadow government, which is an informal cabinet to mirror the official Prime Minister’s cabinet Seen as reluctantly pro-E.U., which may make him vulnerable to being ousted as party leader in the coming weeks and months Boris JohnsonConservativeLeaveSeen as the most likely successor to David Cameron as prime minister Leader of the conservative faction that pushed for Brexit Nigel FarageUKIP (UK Independence Party) LeaveLeader of UKIP, the most vocal political party for Brexit Highly nationalistic, Farage and UKIP will be influential in pressuring U.K. to restrict immigration Nicola SturgeonSNP (Scottish National Party) RemainLeads largest party in Scotland Pushing for second Scottish referendum due to Scotland voting to stay in E.U. Major U.K. Players Involved in Brexit 1

European Leaders Are Regretful About Brexit, But Adamant About Britain Leaving E.U. BREXIT KEY PLAYERS June 29, 2016 | Ben Booker Source: Jennifer Ranklin et al, “EU Leaders Call for UK to Leave As Soon As Possible,” The Guardian, June 24, 2016; Alice Foster, “Europe’s Who’s Who: Six Top Brussel Bureaucrats Standing In the Way of E.U. Brexit,” Express, June 28, PlayerPositionRole and Influence Angela MerkelGerman ChancellorGermany is the most powerful country in the E.U. Merkel was critical of Brexit, but has been conciliatory in her tone and rhetoric Jean Claude JunkerPresident of the E.U. Commission Heads the E.U. Commission, which is E.U.’s executive branch Opposed Brexit, but wants withdrawal negotiations to begin immediately Donald TuskEuropean Council President European Council convenes leaders of E.U. member countries Has estimated that negotiations to settle new trade agreements and immigration arrangements could take seven years without a guarantee of success Francois HollandeFrench PresidentFrance is the second most powerful country remaining in E.U. after U.K’s exit Hollande faces tough election challenge next year from National Front which has called for French exit from E.U. Consequently, Hollande wants Brexit to be painful for U.K. to deter France from leaving Major E.U. Players Involved in Brexit Negotiations 2

U.K. Could Retain Access to European Markets Through EFTA or Tariff Free Access Through EUCU BREXIT OPTIONS June 29, 2016 | Ben Booker Source: Szu Ping Chan, “Brexit: What Are the U.K.’s Options on Trade,” The Telegraph, June 26, 2016; Noun Project: Al Jorgen Bøvolden, Matthieu Rodriguez, Fabio Granara, Ted Grajeda, Federico Panzano Potential Economic Arrangements U.K. Could Form With E.U. EUCU (European Union Customs Union) Technically, a body of the E.U. but there are non-EU participating members, most notably Turkey There are no customs (tariffs) imposed on any of the participants All the participants have a common external tariff making them one trading partner in international trading agreements *EFTA (European Free Trade Area) Members: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland Members are allowed full access to the European single market, but must comply with free movement of goods, capital, services and labor (the exceptions would be for agriculture, fishing, justice and home affairs) Free movement of labor makes this challenging since the Brexit’s Leave campaign was strongly tied to immigration control What Is the European Economic Area? European Economic Area (EEA) refers to the area in European internal market that allows for the free flow of goods, persons, services, and capital, otherwise known as the “four freedoms.” The EEA extends to include EFTA participants so one does not have to be a member of the E.U. to be part of the EEA. The major debate in the U.K. during the Brexit campaign was U.K.’s participation in the EEA which exposed it to the “four freedoms,” the most controversial being free flow of labor. *More likely 3

Remaining in EEA Through EFTA Would Provide Economic Benefits, But Would Be Difficult to Negotiate BREXIT OPTIONS June 29, 2016 | Ben Booker Source: Szu Ping Chan, “Brexit: What Are the U.K.’s Options on Trade,” The Telegraph, June 26, 2016; Laura Whitcombe, “What Is the EEA and Could Britain Join It? How We Can Still Get Free Trade After Brexit, But Europe Warns Perks Don’t Come For Free,” This is Money, June 28, 2016; Jean Claude Paris, “If the U.K. Votes to Leave: The Seven Alternatives to E.U. Membership,” Centre for European Reform, January 2016; Noun Project: Federico Panzano, Phil Laver, gira Park. Challenges to Remaining in the EEA Through the EFTA EU Leadership Some in EU leadership want to make U.K. withdrawal difficult Act as a deterrent for other countries withdrawing from the E.U. U.K. Would Have to Adopt Most of E.U. Regulations In order to gain market access, most of EFTA complies with E.U. regulations However, EFTA members have no vote on the regulations themselves This would be an even larger loss of sovereignty for the U.K. Adoption of the “Four Freedoms” EFTA members tend to accept all of the “four freedoms” This includes the free movement of persons or open immigration Difficult for Leave Campaign to accept compromise on immigration policy EFTA Members in EEA Pay Membership Fee EFTA members have to pay a fee in order to join the EEA Some officials estimate the fee would be about the same as the amount of money U.K. currently gives E.U. Leave Campaign wants to end payments to E.U. 4

Joining the EUCU Would Be Simpler, But Would Provide Fewer Benefits to the U.K. BREXIT OPTIONS June 28, 2016 | Ben Booker Source: Jean Claude Paris, “If the U.K. Votes to Leave: The Seven Alternatives to E.U. Membership,” Centre for European Reform, January 2016; Noun Project: Federico Panzano, Martin Vanco, Gerald Wildmoser, gira Park, Yamini Ahluwalia, Andy Selimov. Positives and Negatives to Being in EUCU Without E.U. Membership No Customs on Goods Entering E.U. Being part of the EUCU means U.K. goods enter the European market with no tariffs U.K. goods must comply with all relevant E.U. standards though U.K.’s Service Sector Would Suffer From Impeded Access EUCU only covers goods, not services Much of U.K.’s trade with E.U. is in services, especially finance Large sector of British trade would not have open market access causing some businesses to relocate from U.K. U.K. Does Not Benefit From FTA’s E.U. Negotiates U.K. does not have same market access E.U. members have when E.U. negotiates free trade agreements On the other hand, the U.K. would have to lower trade barriers and give the same market access to E.U. trading partners because EUCU members have same external tariffs Do Not Have to Abide by “Four Freedoms” (Except for Goods) U.K. would not be bound to the free flow of capital, persons, or services Allows U.K. to set their own standards in these areas, which was important for Leave Campaign 5