Global Headwinds Challenge U.S. Manufacturing Presentation to the MAPI Sales Team Presented by: Cliff Waldman Director of Economic Studies

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Presentation transcript:

Global Headwinds Challenge U.S. Manufacturing Presentation to the MAPI Sales Team Presented by: Cliff Waldman Director of Economic Studies

GDP Expenditure Categories Inflation-Adjusted Percent Change (F)2017(F)2018(F) Gross Domestic Product Total Consumption Durables Nondurables Services Nonresidential Fixed Investment Equipment Information Processing Equipment Industrial Equipment Transportation Equipment Intellectual Property Products Structures Residential Fixed Investment Exports Imports Federal Government State & Local Government MAPI Economic Forecast F=Forecast Source(s): MAPI Foundation, May 2016 MAPI Forecast: The Era of Sluggish Growth Continues in the U.S.

Economic Indicators Percent Change or Level as Specified (F)2017(F)2018(F) Prices (% change) Consumer Prices Excl. Food & Energy Producer Prices, Finished Goods Energy ($) Imported Crude Oil ($ per barrel) $46.50$36.10$43.60$49.90 Natural Gas Henry Hub Price ($mmbtu) $2.60$2.20$2.70$3.20 Other Key Measures Nonfarm Inventory Change (Billion 2009$) $93$28$37$57 Light Vehicle Sales (Million units) Housing Starts (Million units) Federal Surplus (NIPA, Billion $) -$592-$635-$733-$845 Current Account Balance (Billion $) -$484-$463-$459-$534 Labor Unemployment Rate (%) Payroll Employment (% change) Production (% change) Manufacturing (SIC Basis) Computers & Electronic Products Non-High Tech Manufacturing MAPI Economic Forecast F=Forecast Source(s): MAPI Foundation, May 2016 MAPI Forecast: Manufacturing Growth Treading Water in 2016, Moderate Acceleration is Expected for 2017 and 2018

Percent Change Industry (F) 2017 (F) 2018 (F)Industry (F) 2017 (F) 2018 (F) Motor Vehicles & Parts64-2HVAC Equipment2-464 Petroleum & Coal Products5321 Textile Product Mills Plastic Products3035 Paints, Soaps, Toiletries & Misc.1211 Logging-233Food1222 Wood Products0343Apparel0-6-2 Furniture & Related Products3322 Pharmaceuticals & Medicines3123 Consumer-Related Manufacturing Production F=Forecast Source: MAPI Foundation, May 2016

Percent Change Industry (F) 2017 (F) 2018 (F)Industry (F) 2017 (F) 2018 (F) Electric Lighting Equipment1123 Metalworking Machinery Electrical Equipment Industrial Machinery9-454 Architec. & Structural Metals-2133 Heavy Duty Trucks Construction Machinery2-822 Medical Equip. & Supplies633 Engines & Turbines Forging & Stamping2-202 Agricultural Equipment Aerospace Products & Parts0134 Drilling Equipment Ship & Boat Building Investment-Related Manufacturing Production F=Forecast Source: MAPI Foundation, May 2016

Percent Change Industry (F) 2017 (F) 2018 (F)Industry (F) 2017 (F) 2018 (F) Paper-2 0 Resins & Synthetic2348 Iron & Steel Organic Chemicals4658 Alumina & Aluminum-42 Inorganic Chemicals0001 Glass433Ag. Chemicals33911 Material Manufacturing Production F=Forecast Source: MAPI Foundation, May 2016