Medium-term Forecast of Solar Activity in RWCC Hua-Ning Wang, Han He & Yan Yan Presented by Yan Yan Oct, 11 th, 2011.

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Presentation transcript:

Medium-term Forecast of Solar Activity in RWCC Hua-Ning Wang, Han He & Yan Yan Presented by Yan Yan Oct, 11 th, 2011

Outline Introduction of the Medium-term Forecast of Solar Activity The definition of “Medium-term”—How long? The content of “Medium-term Forecast”— What? The way of “Medium-term Forecast”– How to The evaluation of “Medium-term Forecast” Look forward…

Introduction of the Medium-term Forecast of Solar Activity History: monthly mean sunspot number of the coming month; possible proton event; possible influence on shortwave communication. Mainly for related units. Today: From Sep, 1 st 2010 to the present, more than 1 year

The definition of “Medium-term”— How long? Weekly Bi-weekly Monthly Quarterly

The content of “Medium-term Forecast”—What?(I) Smoothed monthly sunspot number of the upcoming week

The content of “Medium-term Forecast”—What?(II) Solar X-ray flare activity level 0(very low) ： no flare 1(low) ： C class flares 2(moderate) ： 1-4 M1-M4 class flares 3(high) ： >=5 M1-M4 class flares ， or 1-4 M5- M9 class flares 4(very high) ： >=5 M5-M9 class flares ， or X class flares

The way of “Medium-term Forecast”– How to (I)Based on two emeritus professors: Wang, J.L., Han, Y.B. Forecasts of smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers and non-smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers for solar cycle 23. Astrophysics Reports: Publ. Beijing Astronomical Observatory, Supplement Series, No.1, 76-80, Wang, J.L., Gong, J.C, Liu, S.Q., Le, G.M., Han, Y.B., Sun, J.L. Verification of a similar cycle prediction for the ascending and peak phases of solar cycle 23. Chin. J. Astron. Astrophys. 2, , Zhang, G.Q., Wang, H.N. Prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 23. Sol. Phys. 188, , and an associate professor: Du, Z.L. A prediction of the onset of solar cycle 24. Astron. & Astrophys. 457, , 2006a. Du, Z.L. Relationship between solar maximum amplitude and max-max cycle length. Astron. J. 132, , 2006b. (II)Based on forecasters’ experience, recently. Mainly originated from the stereo data and helioseismology.

The evaluation of “Medium-term Forecast” We have done 56 “Medium-term Forecast”. We forecasted correctly at 36 times, while wrongly at 20 times including over-estimating at 9 times and under-estimating at 11 times. So we can conclude that our correct rate is right/total is 36/56=64.3%

Look forward… SEP CME EUV Medium-term activity level Something is ongoing….

Thank you for your patience.