Baseline approaches and methodologies: interpretation of Para 48(a)-(c) M&P Buenos Aires, – December 5 th, 2004 Johannes Heister – World Bank, Carbon Finance Team CDM Methodologies and Project Design Workshop for CDM Project Developers

Definition “The baseline for a CDM project activity is the scenario that reasonably represents the anthropogenic emissions by sources of greenhouse gases that would occur in the absence of the proposed project activity” (para 44 CDM M&P).

Baseline basics Baseline approach (COP/MOP) Baseline methodology (EB app) Calculation method (EB app) Baseline scenario (DOE app) Baseline emissions (DOE app)

Baseline approach 48(a) Existing actual or historical emissions, as applicable  bl method: defines Business as Usual (status quo) as baseline scenario  calculation: current or historic emissions  use for: retrofit projects with barriers as only alternative

Baseline approach 48(b) Emissions from a technology that represents an economically attractive course of action, taking into account barriers to investment  baseline method: investment / barrier analysis  calculation: not specified  use for: investment projects with one or several alternatives

Baseline scenario

Baseline approach 48(c) Average emissions of similar project activities, undertaken in the previous 5 years, in similar circum- stances (social, economic, environmental, technological), with performance among top 20 per cent of category”  bl method: control group to identify build margin  calculation: emissions of standard control group  use for: conservative bl for replicable projects, baseline standardization, no investment data