CURRENT FINANCIAL MARKETS DEVELOPMENT I. GLOBAL ECONOMY Doc. RNDr. Petr Budinský, CSc. Prague, 2016

Current Financial Markets Development Global economy Bonds Forex Stocks Commodites Derivatives

Global economy Economic Power of states measured by GDP General Debt of Selected States Budgets Deficits Inflation and Interest Rates Weak Currency as a Goal

GDP – Top 10 States StateGDP (trill. USD) 1USA16,8 2China9,24 3Japan4,92 4Germany3,73 5France2,81 6Great Britain2,68 7Brazil2,25 8Italy2,15 9Russia2,10 10India1,88

BRICS B … Brazil R … Russia I … India C … China S … South Africa (2010) BRICS Bank (Shanghai) + found 100 mld. USD ( )

China and India ChinaIndia Together they form 36% of all people on the planet Population1356 million1220 million Area km km 2 Population density 137 inhabitants/km inhabitants/km 2 GDP (total)9,2 trill. USD1,9 trill. USD GDP per capita 3600 USD per year 1165 USD per year Together they consume 52% of world rice consumption. The number of cars per 1000 inhabitants The number of nuclear bombs The number of medals from the Olympics Life time expectancy 75,366,4

G7 (G8) G7 … USA, Great Britain, Japan, France, Germany, Italy (1975) Canada(1976) G8 … Russia (1998) 7. – – Summit MMF a World Bank TTIP – Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership TTP – Transpacific Trade Partnership

APEC Asia – Pacific Economic Cooperation (1989) 21 states USA, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Canada Russia Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, China (+ Hongkong + Taiwan), Brunei Austrália, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea

MIST M … Mexico I … Indonasia S … South Korea T … Turkey 50% China´s GDP Jim O‘Neill – Goldman Sachs

G20 G7 … USA, Great Britain, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Canada (+ EU) BRICS … Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa MIST … Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey Australia, Argentina, Saudi Arabia 85 % GDP, 80 % trade, 67 % population Washington D.C. (2008), Pittsburgh (2009)

Export State Export (bill. USD) % world exports 1.China ,5 2.USA1.6108,9 3.Germany1.5478,6 4.Japan7114,0 5.South Korea6283,5 6.France5783,2 7.Netherlands5533,1 8.Russia5202,9 9.Great Britain5032,8 10.Italy5002,8 Total: ,3 %

Import State Import (bill. USD) % world imports 1.USA ,5 2.China ,8 3.Germany1.3197,3 4.Japan8124,5 5.Great Britain6863,8 6.France6343,5 7.South Korea5433,0 8.India5082,8 9.Netherlands4892,7 10.Canada4822,7 Total: ,6 %

Export vs. Import Rankings StateExportImportStateExportImport China1.2.Canada USA2.1.Singapore Germany3. Mexico Japan4. UAE South Korea5.7.Switzerland France6. Saudi Arabia Netherlands7.9.India17.8. Russia8.17.Belgium Great Britain9.5.Spain Italy10.11.Australia20.

Reliability Index CountryReliabilityCountryReliability 1. Norway1,8811. New Zealand0,43 2. Sweden0,9512. Netherlands0,42 3. Switzerland0,9313. Austria0,34 4. Finland0,9514. China0,20 5. Australia0,7215. USA0,20 6. Canada0,6716. Thailand0,19 7. Denmark0,6517. Malaysia0,16 8. Chile0,6518. Russia0,15 9. South Korea0,6419. Peru0, Germany0,6120. Czech Republic0,12

Confidence Index Index důvěry 1USA2,10 2China2,00 3Great Britain1,95 4Canada1,94 5Germany1,89 6Brazil1,87 7Japan1,80 8France1,80 9Mexico1,79 10Australia1,79

Competitiveness Index CountryIndex 1.Switzerland5,74 2.Singapore5,63 3.Sweden5,61 4.Finland5,47 5.USA5,43 6.Germany5,41 7.Netherlands5,41 8.Denmark5,40 9.Japan5,40 10.Great Britain5,39 38.Czech Republic4,52 41.Poland4,46 48.Hungary4,36 69.Slovakia4,19

Tax collection in selected countries (Relative to GDP in%) Denmark49,0 Sweden47,4 Austria44,4 France44,5 Germany41,1 Diameter EU40,4 Britain36,7 Czech Rep.34,5 Greece32,9 Poland31,8 Switzerland29,6 Slovakia28,9 USA16,4

Debt / GDP StateRankDebt/GDPStateRankDebt/GDP Saudi Arabia1.2,68%Germany11.74,70% Russia2.13,41%Canada12.86,51% UAE3.16,70%Great Britain13.89,40% China4.22,40%France14.95,00% Australia5.28,60%Spain15.97,70% Mexico6.30,70%USA16.101,53% South Korea7.33,80%Singapore17.105,50% Switzerland8.34,20%Belgium18.106,50% India9.67,72%Italy19.132,10% Netherlands10.68,80%Japan20.230,00%

Budget Deficit StateRankBudget DeficitStateRankBudget Deficit Japan 1. -7,70%Netherlands11.-2,30% Spain 2. -5,80%China12.-2,10% Great Britain 3. -5,70%South Korea13.-1,50% India 4. -4,50%Russia14.-0,50% Mexico 5. -4,00%Canada15.-0,30% France 6. -4,00%Singapore16.-0,13% Belgium 7. -3,20%Switzerland17.-0,10% Australia 8. -3,10%Germany18.0,70% Italy 9. -3,00%Saudi Arabia19.6,40% USA ,80%UAE20.10,15%

Unemployment Rate StateRank Unemployment Rate StateRank Unemployment Rate Saudi Arabia 1. 1,80%Germany11.5,50% Russia 2. 3,30%Canada12.5,70% UAE 3. 3,30%Great Britain13.5,80% China 4. 3,70%France14.6,20% Australia 5. 4,10%Spain15.6,80% Mexico 6. 4,20%USA16.7,00% South Korea 7. 4,31%Singapore17.8,50% Switzerland 8. 4,70%Belgium18.10,30% India 9. 4,90%Italy19.12,40% Netherlands 10. 5,50%Japan20.23,78%

Current rating of EU countries by Standard & Poor's CountryRatingCountryRating DenmarkAAASpainBBB FinlandAA+MaltaBBB+ LuxembourgAAAPolandA- GermanyAAAIrelandA NetherlandsAA+ItalyBBB- SwedenAAABulgariaBBB Great BritainAAALithuaniaBBB FranceAACyprusB- AustriaAA+LatviaBBB+ BelgiumAAHungaryBB+ Czech RepublicAA-RomaniaBB+ EstoniaAA-PortugalBB SlovakiaAGreeceB SloveniaA-CroatiaBB+

Sovereign Ratings S&PMoody´sFitch USAAA+AaaAAA GermanyAAAAaaAAA Czech RepublicAA-A1A+ ItalyBBB-Baa2BBB+ SpainBBBBaa3BBB GreeceBCaa2CCC RussiaBB+Ba1BBB-

Development of the federal debt – USA Gross federal debt (bill. USD) The ratio of debt to GDP (%) ,752, ,12117, ,9671, ,6555, ,3251, ,7738, ,8933, ,435, ,8332, ,853, ,0466, ,856, ,8585, ,100101,5

US development budget surplus / deficit (% of GDP) 20002, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,0

IMF + World Bank International Monetary Fund (1944) Christine Lagarde – SDR (Special Drawing Rights) … USD, EURO, YEN, BP World Bank International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRO) The International Development Association (IDA) Jim Yong Kim –

Voting rights at IMF Total number of members: 187 USA16,77 Japan6,24 Germany5,82 Great Britain4,30 France4,30 China3,82 Italy3,16 Saudi Arabia2,81 Canada2,56 Russia2,39 India2,34 Other45,49