Copernicus Climate Change Service FP7 NACLIM workshop “towards urban climate services” Stijn Vermoote - Lead Copernicus Contract Management ECMWF

Copernicus Climate Change Service To be an authoritative source of climate information for Europe Brings a unique pan-European dimension to Climate Services Build upon, complement and add value to current capabilities in Europe Provide a ‘one-stop-shop’ access to quality assured climate information, tools and good practices Facilitate uptake and growth of the climate service market Cross-cutting role and exploit synergies with other Copernicus services 2 Vision C3S

Copernicus Climate Change Service 3 Questions addressed in the Service How is climate changing? Earth observations Reanalyses Will climate change continue/accelerate? Predictions Projections What are the societal impacts? Climate indicators Sectoral information Focus: Global and Europe - User driven Data policy: Free and Open Operational Service based on science but not a scientific programme

Copernicus Climate Change Service 4 ERA-Interim users (2015) Copernicus Climate Change Service Demonstrator of a European Climate Service of Reference

Copernicus Climate Change Service 5 ERA-Interim users (2015) Copernicus Climate Change Service Demonstrator of a European Climate Service of Reference

Copernicus Climate Change Service 6 Role of C3S in European Climate Services landscape Background document Credit: P. Monfray, JPI Climate André Jol, EEA Copernicus Climate Change Service … work in progress …

Copernicus Climate Change Service 7 C3S components Climate Data Store Sectoral Information System Evaluation and Quality Control Outreach and Dissemination ECVs past, present and future Observed, reanalysed and simulated Derived climate indicators Tools to support adaptation and mitigation at global and European level Monitors quality of C3S products and services Ensures C3S delivers state- of-the-art climate information to end-users Identifies gaps in service provision Bridges Copernicus with the research agenda in Europe (e.g. H2020, national research projects) Web content Public outreach Coordination with national outreach Liaison with public authorities Conferences, seminars Training and education

Copernicus Climate Change Service 8 CDS architecture  The Climate Data Store will be at the heart of the C3S infrastructure and will provide information about past, present and future climate in terms of Essential Climate Variables and derived climate indicators.  The CDS will be designed as a distributed system, providing improved access to existing datasets through a unified web interface, compliant with INSPIRE.  The CDS will contain observations, global and regional climate reanalyses, global and regional climate projections and seasonal forecasts.  The CDS will also provide an comprehensive set of software tools (toolbox) that will allow the users to develop applications that will make use of the content of the CDS.  This service will accommodate the needs of the highly diverse set of users that will include policy makers, experts as well as scientists.

Copernicus Climate Change Service 9 Development of CDS software infrastructure 2016 Q3: Start of contract 2017 Q2: First functional release exposed to a large user group, then quarterly releases with added functionality 2018 Q2: Final release Development of CDS toolbox 2016 Q3/Q4: Start of contract Climate Data Store

Copernicus Climate Change Service 10 Science basis: Essential Climate Variables as defined by GCOS GCOS Status Report (GCOS-195) IPCC, CMIP, FP7/H2020, ESA CCI, … Observations Global estimates of ECVs from satellite and in- situ observations Reprocessed CDRs, reference observations Support for data rescue, climate data collections Climate reanalysis Global atmosphere, ocean, land Regional reanalysis for Europe Coupled climate reanalysis for 100 years Model output Multi-model seasonal forecast products Access to CMIP data and products Reference set of climate projections for Europe Climate Indicators CDS catalogue

Copernicus Climate Change Service 11 CDS observations Current invitations to tender (ITTs) related to observations and reanalysis (approx. 40 contracts, total value 10Meuro/year) ITT numberPublicTopicDescription C3S_311a2016 Q2In situ observationsData rescue registry and services; Access to data collections; Access to reference networks; High- resolution gridded products and time series C3S_311b2016 Q2Level-1b satellite data reprocessing FCDRs; direct negotiation with EUMETSAT C3S_311c2016 Q4Satellite data rescue Service requirements TBD; legacy ERA-CLIM(2) C3S_312a2016 Q1Observational gridded products phase 1 9 contracts for delivery of global CDRs and ICDRs addressing12 ECVs: SLH, SST, SI, O3, Aerosol, GHG, SM, Glaciers and Ice Caps, Albedo, FAPAR, LAI C3S_312b2017 Q1Observational gridded products phase 2 Similar to C3S_312a for additional ECVs C3S_ Q4Regional reanalysis19-20 May workshop: defintion user requirements

Copernicus Climate Change Service C3S Service elements: Sectoral Information System Tailored climate indicators for primary users : Institutional users at European level and wider Science users, innovation and business development Data and tools to support public and commercial applications, policy development and strategic planning. 0 ECV datasets and ~ 10 Sectors to be addressed by

Copernicus Climate Change Service 13 Timeline Stage 0/1 - Proof of Concept/Pre-operational Stage II - Operational ~20 ECVs, ~5-6 Sectors Stage III - Operational ~30 ECVs, ~8-10 Sectors Stage 0Stage IStage IIStage III PoC + Pre-operational Phase Operational Phase

Copernicus Climate Change Service Proof of concept development of sectoral applications Copernicus Climate Change Service Sectoral Information System 14

Copernicus Climate Change Service Sectoral Indicators 15 Seven proof of concept SIS contracts have been awarded: SIS water management: SWICCA (Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change adaptation) – lead SMHI (Sweden) EDgE (End-to-End demonstrator for improved decision making in the water sector in Europe) – Lead NERC-CEH (UK) SIS energy: CLIM4ENERGY (Climate for Energy) – Lead CEA (France) ECEM (European Climatic Energy Mixes) – Lead UEA (UK) SIS others: AgriCLASS (Agriculture Climate Advisory Services) – Lead Telespazio – Vega (UK) WISC (Windstorm Information Service) – Lead CGI (UK) URBAN-SIS (touching health, infrastructure, water) – Lead SMHI (Sweden)

Copernicus Climate Change Service 16 Copernicus Climate Change Service Distribution of SIS PoC suppliers

Copernicus Climate Change Service WATER: SWICCA Water manager Purveyor Data Provider (C3S) 17 C3S

Copernicus Climate Change Service WATER: EDgE 18 Hydrological impact indicators SCIIs SIS for different needs and technical abilities SCIIs and SIS designed and tested by stakeholders

Copernicus Climate Change Service 19 WATER: EDgE Water SCIIs SIS, SCIIs Simulation, Visualisation & Access to SCIIs Full evaluation & market analysis Technical documentation & protocols Open-access codes in VPN repository Users guide

Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate: a number of challenges for the Energy sector Balancing grid load in an increasingly variable production mix Predicting changes in renewable resource Predicting changes in disruption risks Predicting changes in conditions for operating, maintenance, commissioning and decommissioning ENERGY: CLIM4ENERGY

Copernicus Climate Change Service CLIM4ENERGY will produce tailored seasonal forecasts and climate projections for Wind energy providers and traders Hydropower producers and market analysts Grid operators, large electricity producers Operating companies facing adverse conditions (freezing rain, conditions for wood harvest) Oil & gas producers in offshore environment Energy policy makers ENERGY: CLIM4ENERGY

Copernicus Climate Change Service CLIM4ENERGY Demonstration for 6 co-designed case studies

Copernicus Climate Change Service European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) How will climate affect future energy mixes?  The energy sector is undergoing a major transformation – increasing share of power supply from variable renewable energy (RE) sources, demand variability is also increasing;  This is taking place against a variable and changing climate. Thus it is important to develop robust climate-based tools to advise energy planners and policy makers 23 Energy: ECEM

Copernicus Climate Change Service 24 Solar Radiation Wind Speed River Discharge Temperature Calibrated ECVs (WP2) Rainfall ESCIIs Solar Power Wind Power Hydro Power Demand Thermal Power Skill & Reliability Assessment of Seasonal Forecasts of ESCIIs Impacts of Climate Variability & Change on ESCIIs + Extreme Events Case Studies WP4 Define Models / Transfer Functions Select / Gather relevant Datasets Define Models / Transfer Functions Select / Gather relevant Datasets  Country Scale  Historical Period  Seas. Fcst  Clim. Proj.  Country Scale  Historical Period  Seas. Fcst  Clim. Proj. ENERGY: ECEM +Ancillary Cloud Cover Others ?

Copernicus Climate Change Service 25 Forestry Southern forests die- back due to drought, reduced productivity/ biodiversity Olives 40% loss of crop due to pest, increasing scarcity of virgin olive oil – quality drop Viticulture 3-4wks shift in harvest date, reduced sugar content, change in typicality AGRICULTURE: AgriCLASS Drought Stress Indicator Pest Impact Indicator Phenological Indicator

Copernicus Climate Change Service 26 AGRICULTURE: AgriCLASS Objectives  AgriCLASS: Agricultural Climate Advisory Services  To Build: C3S Agricultural Information System  Using: High Quality Climate & Agricultural data & models  Demonstrated Through: Producing Impact Indicators for woody perennial Crops - that are high investment, multi-year yield, responsive to cumulative change – ie climate affected.  Achieved By: Productivity impacts are multi-factoral: water, light, temperature, day length, phenology, local conditions, past history, future trends  Combine know-how of climate data experts, system implementation experts, local meteorological data  Agricultural experts apply crop response models  Make available proof-of-concept system and published indicators

Copernicus Climate Change Service 27 INSURANCE: WISC Objectives  To provide reliable, scientifically rigorous data about Extreme Windstorm, to address the needs of the Insurance Sector, on a free and open basis.  give new insight into the severity and variability of windstorms  Provide data on potential future windstorms, based on leading high resolution climate models Activities  Exploit the Climate Data Store to build a database of windstorm tracks and footprints  Provide Tier 1 indicators of windstorm hazards and Tier 2/3 indicators of exposure and vulnerability, across Europe  Deliver a pre-operational service  Outreach to the Insurance Sector Stakeholders  Re-Insurance Sector  Regulators  Transport Sector  Infrastructure Sector  Climate Science Community

Copernicus Climate Change Service 28 URBAN SIS Target:  Major European cities Pilot demonstrations:  Bologna  Stockholm  Amsterdam- Rotterdam Sectors:  Infrastructure  Health

Copernicus Climate Change Service 29 Commonalities between the projects Use input data from the Climate Data Store - observations, ECVs, reanalyses, seasonal forecasts, climate projections - additional datasets (from other services, socio-economic data, etc.) Stakeholders engagement: - user workshops organised at very early stage (<T+6) Demonstrators: - Most use cases demonstrated between (T+12 and T+18) Wide users trials and feedback

Copernicus Climate Change Service 30 Upcoming opportunities on C3S SIS: Invitation To Tender to be launched in Q2 of 2017 for multiple contracts on “SIS - Extension to other sectors” (ca. 31 MEUR) Content of the ITT will take into account: Lessons learned from the current Proof of Concept SIS contracts Feedback from the Evaluation and Quality Control component on the SIS Feedback as provided during the SIS User Workshop to be organised on October (tentative dates, details will follow on C3S website)

Copernicus Climate Change Service 31 climate.copernicus.eu