Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: Space Research Building (North Campus) Winter 2014 February 18, 2014

Class News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14 Something I am playing with – Politics of Dismissal Entry Model Uncertainty Description

Projects Fracking (Omar, Jeffrey, Austin, Megan, Ranya) –With the recent technological advances in hydraulic fracturing, the U.S. has become the world’s largest producer of oil and is projected to become an exporter of natural gas. Natural gas has been posed as a “bridge fuel” to displace coal in the production of electricity, and to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide. As a policy advisor on climate change, I need to know whether or not a transition to natural gas serves to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases and the impact on water resources. I am especially concerned about the leakage of methane and huge amount of water that is required. I have another team working on public health effects air quality and water quality are out of your domain.

Projects Agricultural (Edwin, Rachel, Kathleen, Chris) –The accounting of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture is difficult. I have read that something like 30% of the total emissions are agriculturally related. This requires that those emissions used in, say, fertilizer manufacturing are accounted in agriculture rather than industry. Recently, I read a blog emissions-of-agriculture that said there was one group who claimed all by itself, livestock was responsible for more than 52% of the emissions. This seems enormous and challenges many conventional strategies for greenhouse gas management. The CEO of my company has announced a sustainability effort, and I want to know what decisions my food manager can make the matter to climate change, including water resources. Should I emphasize vegetarian meals, or is it better to buy local, “sustainable,” or organic? emissions-of-agriculture

Projects Air Travel (Meng, Arnav, Mason, John, Justin) –There is no doubt that airplanes emit carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Air travel is an important part of the economy. When I read about air travel and climate impacts, the information is complicated. Often the discussion ends with the admission that there are not obvious options to make air travel and transport “sustainable” in the sense of climate change. The European Union has been considering a way to reduce emissions from air travel. Their efforts have only revealed even more complexity in reducing the environmental impact of aircraft. In order to know how much priority to give to sustainable air travel in my research and development portfolio, I need a knowledge-based assessment of the impact of air travel on climate, risks associated with “doing nothing” and the viable strategies for making air travel “sustainable.”

Today Scientific investigation of the Earth’s climate: Foundational information –Changes in Forcing –“Internal Variability” –In Class Exercise: Response It hasn't warmed since 1998: For the years , temperature did not increase. This period coincides with society's continued pumping of more CO 2 into the atmosphere.

Let’s start with this figure We arrived at this rather complex figure at the end of the previous lecture

Hansen et al: (1998) & (2001) (-2.7, -0.6) (-3.7, 0.0) Climate Forcing

Today Scientific investigation of the Earth’s climate: Foundational information –Changes in Forcing –“Internal Variability” –In Class Exercise: Response It hasn't warmed since 1998: For the years , temperature did not increase. This period coincides with society's continued pumping of more CO 2 into the atmosphere.

Let’s look at just the last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO 2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior. Note that on this scale, with more time resolution, that the fluctuations in temperature and the fluctuations in CO 2 do not match as obviously as in the long, 350,000 year, record. This is a span of time with very “stable” climate, by historical records. Stable meaning, low variability. Also it has been warm. {

Sources of internal variability There is “natural” variability. –Solar variability –Volcanic activity –Internal “dynamics” Atmosphere - Weather Ocean Atmosphere-ocean interactions Atmosphere-ocean-land-ice interactions “Natural” does not mean that these modes of variability remain constant as the climate changes. Separation of “natural” and “human-caused.”

Energy doesn’t just come and go The atmosphere and ocean are fluids. The horizontal distribution of energy, causes these fluids to move. That is “weather” and ocean currents and the “general circulation.” “General circulation” is the accumulated effect of individual events.

Transport of heat poleward by atmosphere and oceans This is an important part of the climate system One could stand back far enough in space, average over time, and perhaps average this away. This is, however, weather... and weather is how we feel the climate day to day –It is likely to change because we are changing the distribution of average heating

Some Aspects of Climate Variability One of the ways to think about climate variability is to think about persistent patterns of weather –Rainy periods Floods –Dry periods Droughts During these times the weather for a region does not appear random – it perhaps appears relentless

An example of variability: Seasons Temperature Winter Summer Cold Warm Rain comes in fronts Rain comes in thunderstorms Messy Forced variability responding to solar heating

Wave Motion and Climate

Internal Variability? Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. –El Nino – La NinaEl Nino – La Nina What is El Nino –North Atlantic OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation –Annular ModeAnnular Mode –Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation

Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction: El-Nino

Changes during El Nino

Times series of El Nino (NOAA CPC) OCEAN TEMPERATURE EASTERN PACIFIC ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE DIFFERENCE EL NINO LA NINA

Some good El Nino Information NOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Nino / La NinaNOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Nino / La Nina NOAA CPC: Excellent slides on El Nino –This is a hard to get to educational tour. This gets you in the middle and note navigation buttons on the bottom.

GISS Temperature El Nino

January 2011 Temperature Anomalies

Internal Variability? Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. –El Nino – La NinaEl Nino – La Nina What is El Nino –North Atlantic OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation –Annular ModeAnnular Mode –Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation

North Atlantic Oscillation Positive Phase U.S. East, Mild and Wet Europe North, Warm and Wet Canada North & Greenland, Cold and Dry Negative Phase U.S. East, Cold Air Outbreaks, Snow (dry) Europe North, Cold; South, Wet Greenland, Warm

North Atlantic Oscillation Phase (from Climate Prediction Center)Climate Prediction Center

January 2011 Temperature Anomalies

Year-to-Year Changes in Winter Temperatures Differences Relative to Average Late 1970s From Jim Hurrell

Internal Variability? Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. –El Nino – La NinaEl Nino – La Nina What is El Nino –North Atlantic OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation –Annular ModeAnnular Mode –Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation

Does the Pacific Decadal Oscillation operate regularly lasting years, and does southern California experience droughts during that period? The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is one of several “oscillations” that are important to weather and climate. Some attributes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Basics Better version of figure from JISAO Colors: Sea Surface Temperature difference from long term average. Arrows: Stress on the ocean surface caused by winds Warm here Cool here

Some information on Pacific Decadal Oscillation Joint Institute for Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO):JISAO –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation Climate Prediction Center (CPC):CPC –90 Day Outlook Summary90 Day Outlook Summary –Weather and Climate LinkageWeather and Climate Linkage National Climatic Data Center (NCDC):NCDC –Decadal OscillationsDecadal Oscillations Review Paper from Rood Class References –Mantua and Hare (2002) J of OceanographyMantua and Hare (2002) J of Oceanography

Bumps and Wiggles Rood’s Series on Bumps and WigglesRood’s Series on Bumps and Wiggles

Today Scientific investigation of the Earth’s climate: Foundational information –Changes in Forcing –“Internal Variability” –In Class Exercise: Response It hasn't warmed since 1998: For the years , temperature did not increase. This period coincides with society's continued pumping of more CO 2 into the atmosphere.

Lean and Rind, Next 20 yearsNext 20 years

GISS Temperature El Nino An interesting time to study?

In Class Exercise Economist: –Temperature not going up, but carbon dioxide is.Temperature not going up, but carbon dioxide is Look! Warming has stopped.

Iconic and Fundamental Figures

Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate SUN: ENERGY, HEATEARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

Sun-Earth System in Balance The addition to the blanket is CO 2 SUNEARTH EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE PLACE AN INSULATING BLANKET AROUND EARTH FOCUS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE

Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Data and more information Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas

Temperature and CO 2 : The last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO 2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior.  Medieval warm period  “Little ice age”  Temperature starts to follow CO 2 as CO 2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350,000 years.

CLOUD-WORLD The Earth System ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN

Radiation Balance Figure

Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009)Trenberth et al. 2009

Hansen et al: (1998) & (2001) (-2.7, -0.6) (-3.7, 0.0) Climate Forcing