JANUARY 24, 2013 THECB 12/2012 Enrollment Forecast

Purpose of the Enrollment Forecast THECB 12/2012 To inform institutions what their enrollments are projected to be if they do not change their demographic and geographic drawing patterns To provide statewide baseline enrollment figures for universities, community and technical colleges, and independent institutions

What is included in the forecast? THECB 12/2012 Designed to reflect current trends, is intentionally conservative 5 years of historical enrollment by age, race/ethnicity, and county Uses TxSDC population projections Projected population by age, race/ethnicity, and county Non-resident participation factors Institutional input on local conditions

Updated population projections indicate slower growth than previously expected 2010 CensusChange from Prior Projection White11,397,345-44,250 Hispanic9,460, ,931 African-American2,886,825-38,926 Other1,400,470241,721 Total25,145, ,386 Source: Texas State Data Center

Slower population projections also dampened forecast TotalHispanicAfrican American White 2010 Census -228, ,931-38,926-44, , ,610-61,981-9, ,015,351-1,094,213-97,00644, ,936,799-1,892, ,678140,405 Source: Texas State Data Center

2015 Enrollment Projection is marginally higher than previous forecast THECB 12/2012 Statewide, most recent five-year enrollment includes large growth until 2011 Recent decline meant the starting point for the Forecast is lower The flatness of the projection reflects enrollment demographics, population trends, and the enrollment change

Recent slowdown dampened projections TotalPublic Universities Public CTC ICUT 20051,166,054484,999566,071114, ,423,696557,550743,252122, ,437,282576,965738,981121, ,456,790600,158750,211122, ,579,282630,034772,463124,065

Current Forecast does not reach Closing the Gaps Goal THECB 12/2012 1,471,000 1,308,000

THECB 12/2012 Institutional targets reach Closing the Gaps goal

What does this do to the Closing the Gaps Targets? THECB 12/2012 TotalHispanicAfrican American White ,875-62,370-5,5292,520 If we reach current targets 6.1%6.3%5.7%

How are additional students funded? THECB 12/2012 Formula funding Other Appropriated funds Tuition and Fees Non-Appropriated funds

Increases THECB 12/2012 Higher education enrollment has increased by 540,000 students  284,000 at public 2-year colleges  162,000 at public universities Full-time Student Equivalents have increase by:  180,000 at public community colleges  130,000 at public universities Added 3 new universities, new pharmacy school, and multiple community college campuses

General Academic Institutions Receive Funds from Many Sources Formula Funds can be used to pay for Faculty Salaries Department Operating Expense Libraries Instructional Administration Student Services Institutional Support Research Enhancement Infrastructure Support Ineligible Expenses TRB Debt Service New construction and major repairs

Number of Full-Time Equivalent Students Continue to Climb THECB 12/2012

Universities reliance on tuition and fees has increased THECB 12/2012

University are shifting funding to students THECB 12/2012

Increases in Efficiencies at Universities THECB 12/2012 Graduation rates have increased  4 year rate – from 18% to 29.9%  6 year rate – from 49.2% to 58.4% Graduates have increased:  From 79,000 per year in FY 2000 to 125,000 per year in FY 2012

Formula funds are just one funding source among many for CTCs Formula Funds can be used to pay for Instruction Department operating expense Academic Support (includes library) Student services Institutional support

Community college student’s share of overall funding is increasing THECB 12/2012

Increases in Efficiencies at Community Colleges THECB 12/2012 Graduation rates have increased  3 year rate – from 10.8% to 13.3%  6 year rate – from 25.7% to 29.2% Graduates have increased:  From 37,000 per year in FY 2000 to 83,000 per year in FY 2012

Total Appropriations per FTSE THECB 12/2012

Formula Funding per FTSE THECB 12/2012

Tuition and Fees per FTSE THECB 12/2012