Alan F. Hamlet Edward L. Miles Amy K. Snover JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington October, 2003 Designing a Regional Integrated Climate Research Program for the Pacific Northwest: Evolving Research Strategies in the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group

PI: Edward L. Miles (human dimensions) Principals: Robert Francis (aquatic ecosystems) Dennis P. Lettenmaier (hydrology and water resources) Nathan Mantua (climate dynamics) Philip W. Mote (education and outreach) Richard Palmer (water resources management) David L. Peterson (forests) Amy K. Snover (integration and synthesis) People in the Climate Impacts Group

The Climate Impacts Group: The Big Picture Climate Variability past variations and their impacts ability of institutions to respond to extremes Climate Change regional consequences of global warming adaptation/vulnerability  Water Resources  Salmon +  Forests  Coasts  Human Dimensions [Agriculture] [Human Health] SECTORS SCOPE of WORK

Climate Impact Science The study of how climate, natural resources, and human socio-economic systems affect each other natural resources socio- economic systems climate C LIMATE I MPACTS S CIENCE

Understand regional climate variability Analyze impacts of climate variations on natural and human systems Investigate institutional responses to climatic stresses Assess societal sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability to climate variability Use evidence from retrospective studies as basis for projecting sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability to climate change Research Approach

Climate Hydrology and Water Resources Forests Aquatic Ecosystems Coastal Systems To Begin: A Simple Vertical Integration Framework with a One-Dimensional Horizontal Linkage to Climate. Human Dimensions Research Human Dimensions Research was an integrated component in each sector.

A history of the PDO warm cool warm A history of ENSO Pacific Decadal OscillationEl Niño Southern Oscillation Identify Global/Regional Climate Drivers

Annual Flow at The Dalles events 2 events Assemble and Analyze Observational Data Sets

Identify Broad-Based Functional Relationships Cool Warm

Source: Gedalof, Z., D.L. Peterson and Nathan J. Mantua. (in review). Columbia River Flow and Drought Since Submitted to Journal of the American Water Resources Association. Extend Data Sets to Paleoclimatic Time Scales red = observed, blue = reconstructed

Temperature Reconstructions from Geoduck Growth Rings Mean of four series at Protection Island Are Strom, UW

ColSim Reservoir Model VIC Hydrology Model Construct Analytical Tools

Construct Forecasting Systems ENSO PDO Run Initialized Hydrologic Model Select Temperature and Precipitation Data from Historic Record Associated with Forecast Climate Category Climate Forecast Ensemble Streamflow Forecast

Forecasting Salmon Returns Coastal Ocean Conditions Sea surface temperatures Sea level Nearshore winds Oregon coho salmon survival SpringFallWinterSummer Jack returns Harvest & allocation decisions (February) Fishery Run-size forecast (using obs’d conditions) Run-size forecast (using SST forecast) Plankton surveys

Current Climate 2020s2040s Snow Water Equivalent (mm) VIC Simulations of April 1 Average Snow Water Equivalent for Composite Scenarios (average of four GCM scenarios) Project Impacts Forwards in Time

The Northwest Salmon Crisis: commercial landings in the Columbia River Millions of pounds landed Examine the Response of Complex Systems

Evaluate Institutional Components and Characteristics Ability of Managers And Policy Makers To Respond to Climate Information And Forecasts Education Outreach Workshops Human Dimensions Research Mapping institutional frameworks Identify players Characterize laws, treaties, rules and constraints Determine interactions Analyze individual institutions

Work with stakeholders Benefits to CIG: Use of climate forecasts by natural resources managers Perceived value of climate information Decision calendars Institutional constraints on adaptability Areas of vulnerability Benefits to stakeholders: Tools for planning - resource forecasts - regional & resource-specific interpretations of global climate change Reliable and responsive source of information about climate outlooks and climate predictability Strategies Continual networking to identify partnerships Workshops & surveys provide means for initial contact Capitalize on climate events Long-term commitment

Create Functional Linkages Between Academic Research and Management Agencies Climate researchFormal planning exercises Hydrologic studiesMonitoring Integrated assessmentInfrastructure Adaptation strategiesManagement Academic Research Resource Management

Planning for Climate Change: Water Resources in the Columbia basin Water policy workshops have highlighted the need to inject climate change information into existing river basin planning activities and to provide free access to streamflow scenarios. Partners: Northwest Power Planning Council Idaho Dept of Water Resources City of Portland Oregon Water Dept. Seattle Public Utility

Planning for climate change: municipal water supply FUTURE WATER DEMAND IN PORTLAND (OR): Regional growth: +40 mgd Climate change: +20 mgd CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS on WEST-SIDE MUNICIPAL SYSTEMS: Decreased spring streamflow Increased demands  Regional planning & infrastructure investments

Synthesize the Vertical Research Findings A Few Examples: PNW Regional Assessment Report (Mote et al. 1999) (Part of the National Assessment of Climate Variability and Change) Integrated Assessment of Columbia River Water Resources (Miles et al. 2000) Transboundary Issues in the Columbia River Basin (Hamlet, 2003) Fisheries Management Applications (Mantua and Francis, 2003) Ongoing Workshops on Water Management, Water Policy, Fisheries Management, Forests Resources, Coastal Systems in the Context of Climate Variability and Climate Change

A Vision for the Future: Increasing Horizontal & Vertical Integration Objective: To develop a capability to answer questions from policymakers concerning impacts and policies at the different time/space scales at which climate, natural ecosystems, and human social systems interact.

Climate Hydrology and Water Resources Forests Aquatic Ecosystems Coastal Systems One-Dimensional Horizontal Integration

Global Climate Drivers Hydrologic Cycle Forests Estuaries Coastal Ocean Rivers Water Resources Management Open Ocean Salmon Multi-Dimensional Horizontal Integration Fisheries Management

Global Climate Drivers Hydrologic Cycle Forests Estuaries Coastal Ocean Rivers Water Resources Management Open Ocean Salmon Focus on Subsets of the Multi-Dimensional Problem Fisheries Management

Conclusions: A simple organizational structure based on a one-dimensional “horizontal” linkage between climate research and a group of “vertically integrated” research teams in several traditional academic disciplines has proven to be a useful one for the Climate Impacts Group. This research strategy has laid the foundation for future work with increasing horizontal integration between sectors. Research on the capacity of existing institutions identified important research needs and fundamentally altered the CIG’s strategy for education and outreach. CIG Partnerships with regional stakeholders has been a very productive avenue in the context of creating linkages between academia and management agencies, and in the process of developing and refining pilot climate forecast applications.