Anthropogenic Emission Trend Drivers, 1850-1990 Global Visibility (Smoke??) Trends GISS Carbonaceous Aerosol Trends Workshop November 24, 2003, NYC Rudolf.

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Presentation transcript:

Anthropogenic Emission Trend Drivers, Global Visibility (Smoke??) Trends GISS Carbonaceous Aerosol Trends Workshop November 24, 2003, NYC Rudolf Husar, CAPITA Washington University

Atmospheric Environment 33 (1999) Estimating Historical Anthropogenic Global Sulfur Emission Patterns for the Period [1] Allen S. Lefohn a, , Janja D. Husar b, Rudolf B. Husar b[1] 

Global S Emission Trend,

Visibility-Population Density Comparison In India bext and population density compare well

AVHRR satellite optical depth data over the oceans,

MODIS AOT, 2002 MODIS Team Features of Global Smoke Emissions ATSR Fire Locations 1993

MISR Seasonal AOT (MISR Team) Major smoke emission regions by season

Continental Visibility data Surface visual range observations. Over 8000 stations' throughout the six continents. The on line data files from NCDC Explored: January, 1994 through October data available

Extinction Coefficient Contours, km-1

West Central Africa Dec Jan Feb peak Regular, each year No trends ?? DJFMAM JJASON MISR

Central Africa Dec Jan Feb peak Regular, each year No trends ?? DJFMAM JJASON MISR

Central Africa Jun Jul Aug peak Regular, each year No trends DJFMAM JJASON MISR

South America DJFMAM JJASON Aug Sep peak Regular + Irregular Upward trend MISR

South America DJFMAM JJASON Aug Sep peak Regular + Irregular Upward trend MISR

Central America DJFMAM JJASON Mar Apr May peak Regular + Irregular Downward trend MISR

Indochina DJFMAM JJASON Apr & Oct peak Irregular Upward trends ?? MISR

Indonesia Apr & Oct peak Irregular Upward trends ?? DJFMAM JJASON MISR

Central America DJFMAM JJASON Mar Apr May peak Regular + Irregular Downward trend MISR

Central America DJFMAM JJASON Mar Apr May peak Regular + Irregular Downward trend MISR

South America and Central Africa Extinction Coefficient

India Dec Jan Feb peak Regular, each year No trends MISR

Conclusions? Global fossil fuel consumption trends data are available –Require historical emission factors for carbonatious aerosols Satellite data provide spatial/seasonal pattern –Limited trends information over cloud-free areas –No aerosol speciation –No info on vertical distribution Visibility data provide year record –Surface concentration over continental areas only –No speciation –Semi quantitative