Climate Impacts on Pelagic Ecosystems Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats Ecosystems and Oceanography Program Ecosystem Sciences Division PIFSC 5 April 2016

Background Variability vs. change Variability Interannual (ENSO) and multidecadal (PDO) Change Long-term trend, largely anthropogenic U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

Science and Management Questions Projected climate impacts on North Pacific ecosystems? Overall Particularly vulnerable regions Projected climate impacts on pelagic species? Protected species Commercially-valuable species Range of possible climate change impacts? Ecosystem model skill? Projections supported by growing time series? U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3

Collaborators Within NOAA GFDL: climate model expertise AFSC: ecosystem model development and expertise NESDIS: indicator development Regional UH: broad knowledge base, expanded data access International ICES/PICES working group Modeling the fishery impacts of climate change Focusing on mid-century For inclusion in next IPCC assessment report U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4

Data and Tools Earth system model output Suite of 14 scenarios from 8 earth system models Ecosystem models Species-based and size-based Growing environmental time series Satellite Ship-based Fishery-dependent U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5

Results – Single Earth System Model Only Expanding subtropical biome and warming SSTs U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6 Polovina et al. 2011

Results – Single Earth System Model Paired with Single Ecosystem Model U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7 Howell et al Woodworth-Jefcoats et al Climate change impacts on fish abundance F:Fishing effort sustained 0.5F:Fishing effort halved CC: Climate change included

Results – Single Earth System Model Paired with Multiple Ecosystem Models Comparison of ecosystem model approaches U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8 Woodworth-Jefcoats et al. 2015

Results – Multiple Earth System Models Multi-model projections of climate impacts U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9 Woodworth-Jefcoats et al Model Agreement 33% 67% 100% Multi-Model Mean 1986 – 2005 mean 2081 – 2100 mean

Communication – With Fellow Climate Scientists Publications Scientific journals Polovina et al ICES Journal of Marine Science Doney et al Annual Review of Marine Science Howell et al Climatic Change Woodworth-Jefcoats et al Global Change Biology Woodworth-Jefcoats et al Progress in Oceanography NOAA documents (Regional Action Plan) Book chapters Peer reviews Workshops/meetings ICES/PICES working group Ocean Sciences Meeting U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10

Communication – With Stakeholders and Legislators Council Fishery-specific questions Tailored indicators from a broader suite Outreach work Presentations to science educators, public Legislature Call with Rep. Takai’s staff, NMFS leadership U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11

Successes and Challenges Successes Growth of skill and capabilities On the forefront of using earth system model output with ecosystem models Expanded network of collaborators Increasing visibility of results Challenges Small team working on climate Limited computing infrastructure U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12

Future Directions Ecosystem model development Integrated size- and species-based modeling Further ecosystem model skill assessments Hindcast Climate model downscaling Regional and temporal U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13