CariCOF Climate Outlook January-February-March 2016 and April-May-June 2016 Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

Regional Climate Outlook Forums CariCOF - FCAC 2 CariCOF FCAC

RAINFALL

JFM RAINFALL O MONTH LEAD (ML)

JFM CPT probabilistic JFM rainfall forecast CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov(data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov JFM Dec 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM(data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Dec initialisation). JFM 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM. JFM 5.Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over JFM (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). JFM Dec 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). JFM. 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM. Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/tropical N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean.

JFM CPT probabilistic JFM Rainfall forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial :468Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 1Used : 432Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 1 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 432Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 431Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 431Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 2

JFM CPT probabilistic JFM Rainfall forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes: 1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 1Used : 432Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 1 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 468Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 431Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 2 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 431Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 4

AMJ RAINFALL 3 MONTH LEAD (ML)

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ rainfall forecast CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov AMJ Dec 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Dec initialisation). AMJ 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. AMJ 5.Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). AMJ Dec 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). AMJ 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ.

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ Rainfall forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial :468Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 429Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 429Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 429Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 1 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes 6:Used : 429Stations : 10 CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 4

MAM CPT probabilistic MAM Rainfall forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes: 1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 1Used : 432Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 1 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 468Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 429Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 1Used : 429Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 1

CariCOF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) January – February – March 2016

CariCOF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May - June 2016

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS

Supporting probabilistic precipitation forecasts Nine data sources (incl. GPCs): 1)IRI multi-model probability forecast (only multi-model forecast that recalibrates & weights the models based on past performance); 2)UK Met Office GCM (UKMO) probability forecast; 3)European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecast GCM (ECMWF) and EUROSIP (multi-model) probability forecasts; 4)APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi=model probability forecasts; 5)WMO Lead Centre for LRF – MME. 6)CFSv2 model 7)MétéoFrance Arpège model. 8)JMA model 9)Environment Canada CMC model Rainfall outlooks are generated next to T 2m outlooks (see Appendix). Rainfall tendencies from supporting models and local expertise: 1)El Niño has manifested and is now strong and still intensifying (latest SST anom. 2.3°C). Most models suggest a strong El Niño lasting into the first quarter of 2016, with an estimated overall confidence of at least 99% for JFM and >95% for AMJ for remaining in El Niño. Similarly, SSTs have been and are still above average north and east of the Caribbean Islands. Temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic eastwards are expected to warm further into AMJ (with the possible exception of areas just north of the S American continent, where El Niño is often associated with stronger trade winds and, hence, stronger upwelling). 2)Warm SSTs north and east of the islands may lead to average to above-average air moisture in the islands for JFM. This pattern is expected to intensify across the Antilles into AMJ and extenuate in the Bahamas. However, over the Antilles and increasingly towards the south and east, a pattern of drier air could be observed in JFM and AMJ, as a result of El Niño. A strong El Niño is expected to sustain increased vertical wind shear and subsidence over the Caribbean, which weakens deep convection (except the NW, especially in MAM, where the opposite is expected). 3)Global models are suggesting a shift to above-normal rainfall in Cuba and the Bahamas in JFM and in islands north of 20°N into AMJ. By contrast, a shift to below-normal rainfall is expected further south- and east-ward, with a southeast-ward movement of the area with high chances for below-normal rainfall.

Probabilistic DJF rainfall forecast map

Probabilistic MAM rainfall forecast map

2M MEAN TEMPERATURE

JFM TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML)

JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Temperature forecast CCA experiments: NOv 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over NOv (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov. JFM Dec 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Dec initialisation). JFM 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM. JFM 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over JFM (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). JFM Dec 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). JFM 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM.

JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5 Initial :73Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 50Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes:3Initial : 73Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 50Stations : 10Moderate ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5 Initial : 73Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 48Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes:3Initial : 73Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 48Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 5

JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3 Initial : 73Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5 Used : 50Stations : 10Moderate ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 2Used : 48Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 48Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 4

AMJ TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML)

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov. AMJ Dec 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Dec initialisation). AMJ 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. AMJ 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). AMJ Dec 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). AMJ 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ.

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial :73Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 50Stations : 10Moderate ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 6 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 50Stations : 10Moderate ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 73Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 49Stations : 10Fair CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 49Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 5

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3 Initial : 73Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5 Used : 50Stations : 10Moderate ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 49Stations : 10Fair NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 2Used : 49Stations : 10Fair NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 4

CariCOF Objective T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) January – February – March 2016

CariCOF Objective T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May – June 2016

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS

Probabilistic DJF 2m Temperature forecast map

Probabilistic MAM 2m Temperature forecast map

MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM 2M TEMPERATURE

JFM MAX. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML)

JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov. JFM Dec 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Dec initialisation). JFM 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM. JFM 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over JFM (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). JFM Dec 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). JFM 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM.

JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Max. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial :48Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 38Stations : 10Moderate ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 38Stations : 10Moderate ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 48Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 4

JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Max. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 4Used : 38Stations : 10Moderate ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 48Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 4

MAM MAX. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML)

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov. AMJ Dec 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Dec initialisation). AMJ 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. AMJ 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). AMJ Dec 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). AMJ 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ.

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Max. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial :48Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 39Stations : 10!!Limited!! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 39Stations : 10!!Limited!! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 48Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 7 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 37Stations : 10!!Limited!! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 5

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Max. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 4Used : 38Stations : 10Moderate ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 48Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 37Stations : 10!!Limited!! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 6 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 37Stations : 10!!Limited!! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 6

CariCOF Objective Maximum T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) January – February – March 2016

CariCOF Objective Maximum T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May – June 2016

JFM MIN. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML)

JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov. JFM Dec 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Dec initialisation). JFM 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM. JFM 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over JFM (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). JFM Dec 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). JFM 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM.

JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Min. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5 Initial :48Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 39Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 7 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 39Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 48Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 37Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 6 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 37Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8

JFM CPT probabilistic JFM 2m Min. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 4Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 48Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 37Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 37Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8

AMJ MIN. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML)

MAM CPT probabilistic MAM 2m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov. AMJ Dec 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Dec initialisation). AMJ 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. AMJ 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). AMJ Dec 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). AMJ 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ.

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Min. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial :48Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 40Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 40Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 48Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 6Used :Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 339 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 39Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 3

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Min. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 4Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 48Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 39Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 39Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 5

CariCOF Objective Minimum T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) January – February – March 2016

CariCOF Objective Minimum T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May – June 2016

DROUGHT OUTLOOK

ONDJFM DROUGHT OUTLOOK

ONDJFM CPT probabilistic ONDJFM CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Nov 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov. DJFM 3.Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over DJFM (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).

ONDJFM CPT probabilistic ONDJFM Drought forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 468Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 422Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 422Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 3CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5 Used : 35Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3

JJASONDFJMAM DROUGHT OUTLOOK

JJASONDJFMAM CPT probabilistic JJASONDJFMAM CCA experiments: Nov 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).

JJASONDJFMAM CPT probabilistic JJASONDJFMAM Drought forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 2Used : 407Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 1

Drought Outlook Oct to Mar Drought Outlook Oct to Mar Areas under immediate drought concern? December 2015 Current update (December 2015): Drought concern is noted across the region, except the Bahamas, most parts of Belize, Cuba and Turks & Caicos. We issue a drought warning in the remaining locations except south-western Belize, Grenada, western Jamaica, St. Kitts & Nevis, Tobago where we issue a drought watch. Current Outlook Previous Outlook

RAISE AWARENESS & CONSERVE WATER!! Current Current drought situation (up to the end of December 2015): (more information here)here – Because of below-normal rainfall during the previous dry and current wet seasons, water shortages occur in many portions of the Antilles. – Nearly all island nations are in longer-term drought (except Bahamas and Cuba), as well as W Belize. After a record dry August to October period in 10 territories, many Antilles islands are currently facing severe shorter-term drought. Shorter-term Shorter-term (till March 2016): – We expect that a shorter-term drought situation may persist in the Antilles and in Belize, especially in ABC Islands, Barbados, Cayman, Hispaniola, Leewards, US C’bean Terr. And N Windwards. Longer-term Longer-term (beyond March 2016): – Strong El Niño in place. El Niño often results in a drier wet season and an early end to it (except for the NW C’bean), and particularly so in the SE C’bean. This may lead to drought concerns towards the end of the next dry season. – Areas with existing water shortages may not see full recovery until the next wet season, in particular Barbados, Belize, central Hispaniola, E Jamaica, Leewards, Trinidad & Tobago, US C’bean Terr. and Windwards. Drought outlook Drought outlook – shorter-/longer-term concern?

Long-term drought outlook Long-term drought outlook Concerns by the end of the Caribbean dry season (May 31 st, 2016)? November 2015 This 12-month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations until November 2015, with potential impacts on large surface water reserves and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12-month SPI is ≤-0.8 (moderately dry or worse – ref.: CDPMN). Impactful hydrological drought by the end of the dry season (May 31 st ) is a concern across all the Antilles except eastern Cuba (no data available for Haïti), in Belize and the Guianas. A drought emergency is issued for SE Puerto Rico. A drought warning is issued for the remainder of the Antilles except eastern Cuba, and western Belize. Previous Outlook Current Outlook

ALERT LEVELMEANINGACTION LEVEL NO CONCERNNO CONCERN No drought concern monitor resources update and ratify management plans public awareness campaigns upgrade infrastructure DROUGHT WATCHDROUGHT WATCH Drought possible keep updated protect resources and conserve water implement management plans response training monitor and repair infrastructure DROUGHT WARNINGDROUGHT WARNING Drought evolving protect resources conserve and recycle water implement management plans release public service announcements last minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades report impacts DROUGHT EMERGENCY Drought of immediate concern release public service announcements implement management and response plans enforce water restrictions and recycling enforce resource protection repair infrastructure report impacts

Rainfall frequency and extreme forecasts – wet days and wet spells outlooks December 2015 to February 2016 Dr. Cedric VAN MEERBEECK 1, Wazita Scott 1, Dr. Simon MASON 2, Ángel MUÑOZ 2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN 2, Dale Destin 3 1 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados 2 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA 3 Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services

Wet day frequency shifts Forecast for: Dec-Feb USUALLY: Number of wet days decreases from December to February, except the Guianas which enter their wet season. FORECAST: December to February rainfall expected to be below- to normal in eastern and southern Caribbean with fewer wet days (high confidence), but above- to normal in Bahamas, Belize, Cuba. IMPLICATION: Fewer disruptions of outdoor activities; increasing surface dryness, reduced recharge of water reservoirs.

USUALLY: Few wet spells occur after December, except in the Guianas. FORECAST: December to February rainfall expected to be below- to normal in eastern and southern Caribbean with fewer wet days (high confidence), wet spells (medium confidence) and extreme wet spells (medium confidence), but above- to normal in Bahamas, Belize, Cuba. IMPLICATION: Limited flash flood potential. DJF 2015 frequency of extreme (top 1%) 3-day wet spells Extreme wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: Dec-Feb

Number of wet days in NDJ Number of 7-day wet spells in NDJ (20% wettest) Number of 7-day very wet spells in NDJ (10% wettest) Number of 3-day extremely wet spells in NDJ (1% wettest) ClimatologyForecastClimatologyForecastClimatologyForecastClimatologyForecast Antigua (VC Bird) Aruba (Beatrix) Barbados (CIMH) Barbados (GAIA) Belize (C. Farm) Cayman Cuba (Punta Maisi) Dominica (Canefield) Dominica (Douglas Charles) Dom. Republic (Las Americas) Grenada (MBIA) Guyana (Albion) Guyana (Blairmont) Guyana (Georgetown) Guyana (New Amsterdam) Guyana (Timehri) Jamaica (Worthy Park) Martinique (FDF Desaix) Puerto Rico (San Juan) St. Lucia (Hewanorra) St. Maarten (TNCM) St. Vincent (ET Joshua) Suriname (Zanderij) Tobago (ANR Robinson) Trinidad (Piarco) brown is a decrease in frequency, dark blue an increase December to February Forecast

APPENDIX

US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin

US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin

NOAA CPC NAO index monitoring/forecasting

Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs Caribbean & tropical Atlantic El Niño region

Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs Caribbean & tropical Atlantic El Niño region

Explanatory variables – ECMWF Predicted Tropical SSTs

US Climate Prediction Center – El Niño update

Explanatory variables – CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast

IRI – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast rcile%20summary!1%20month!Tropics!201310!/

ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic rainfall forecast forecast?time= ,5088, &area=Tropics&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile%20summary

UK Met Office – probabilistic Rainfall forecast

NOAA CPC – probabilistic rainfall forecast

APCC – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier

Japan Met Agency - probabilistic rainfall forecast

Environment Canada CanSIPS - probabilistic Rainfall forecast JFM 2015 (0.5 month lead) AMJ 2016 (3.5 month lead)

IRI – multi-model probabilistic T 2m forecast

EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic T 2m forecast rcile%20summary!1%20month!Tropics!201310!/

ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic T 2m forecast forecast?time= ,3624, &area=Tropics&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile%20summary

UK Met Office – probabilistic T 2m forecast

APCC – multi-model probabilistic T 2m forecast

Météo France Arpège – probabilistic T 2m forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier

Japan Met Agency - probabilistic T 2m forecast

Environment Canada CanSIPS - probabilistic T 2m forecast JFM 2016 (0.5 month lead) AMJ 2016 (3.5 month lead)

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