Satellite Analysis Branch 2009 Year in Review Anthony Salemi with Michael Turk NOAA Hurricane Conference December 1, 2009

Milestones Summer 2009 SAB Dvorak and MW fixes placed directly into ATCF Phone coordination w/ TAFB discontinued G. Serafino accepts position outside OSDPD; -- D. Streett ABC M. Turk participated in NHC Visiting Scientist Program eTRaP goes operational Fall 2009 Effort underway to incorporate SAB Post MW Analysis in ATCF CIMSS delivers ADT v8.1.1 to NESDIS

GOES Status and Schedule for 2009/2010 GOES-10 to be decommissioned on 12/1/09 at 12:30 UTC GOES-13 to replace GOES-12 in April 2010 –Transition plan similar to GOES-8 to -12 transition –GOES-13 imaging while drifting to 75° W –GOES-East switch to GOES-13 when 13 is within 6° of GOES-12 (4/14) GOES-13 GVAR through GOES-12 until 4/26 –GOES-12 drift to 60° W for South America GOES-12 South America coverage by June 2010

GOES-12 and GOES-13 Differences Improved INR!! GOES-13 Spectral Response Functions (SRFs) Updated GOES-13 will operate through Eclipse –Sun light intrusion does have an effect on data/products –Recommendation for shifted scans during Fall 2010 “KOZ” period –OSDPD undergoing testing of shifted scans 75% of cancelled “KOZ” images recoverable –No changes to Sounder Why not scan away from contaminated data?

Milestones: Microwave Fixes Milestones: Microwave Fixes

Sample Microwave Post Analysis History File

Product System Development & Implementation (PSDI) Program Global Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product AMSU-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation from Aqua and Metop GOES-Based Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Product Operational Implementation of an Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Technique (eTRaP) Operational Implementation of the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique

Update on CIRA GOES-PSDI Project Extension 5.2bFY03 Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) Product Collection of developmental datasets needed to expand current product to global domain completed Experimental global product running in real-time at CIRA New algorithm developed for global domain

Update on CIRA POES-PSDI Project ( Request FY99-38) FY08 AMSU-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation from Aqua and Metop Project has been delayed by: –NCEP IT security –NCEP super computer freeze –Access to computer at NHC which has access to BUFR libs/data NOAA-19 to be added in addition to Aqua and Metop Software/retrieval codes have been modified and are awaiting implementation

Currently pre-operational on ESPC SATOPS development system No recent science changes Archive agreement submitted to NCDC Future site - June 2010: Operational Phase Begins Multiplatform Surface Wind

eTRaP Home page -

Location allowance (to nearest 4 km) of eTRaP probability of precipitation fields that resulted in reliable probabilistic forecasts

ADT Entered New Operational Phase: Incorporation of MW Signal

ADT w/ MW 2009 Results: Atlantic ADT w/ & w/o MW Stratified by Intensity Homogeneous Comparison with SAB

Assessment of ADTv7.2.3 w/ MW: 2009 West Pacific Typhoon Season (Subset) Intensity Paramet er N ADT v SAB 2009 W Pac SeasonADTMW v SAB 2009 W Pac Season % w/in 1/4 T-no% w/in 3/4 T-noAvg Pos Err (nmi) / N% w/in 1/4 T-no% w/in 3/4 T-noAvg Pos Err (nmi) / N Tropical Depression CI number Pressure Tropical Storm CI number Pressure Category 1 & 2 Hcn CI number Pressure Major Hcn CI number Pressure Overall CI number Pressure Only those TCs where MW adjustment occurred were used in this assessment.

Case Study: Typhoon Kujira (01W) In v7.2.3, the eye scene regression equations were altered and v7.2.3 with MW had a CDO adjustment. This resulted in the differences shown above.

What to Expect from ADT v8.1.1 Includes the "better" set of eye equations Leaves out the CDO adjustment Net effect should be improvement in hurricane intensities (new eye regressions) and tropical storm intensities (old CDO handling) in addition to improvements from MW adjustment

Questions?

GOES-East Detailed Transition 1/19GOES-13 Return to Normal Mode Imager, Sounder, SEM activated SXI remains off 1/21Image Navigation Start-up (4 days) 1/25Begin GOES-13 execution of GOES East Schedule 2/9Perform GOES-13 Annual inclination maneuver 2/17Conduct GOES-13 Operations Readiness Review 2/23Start GOES-13 Eastward Drift from 105°W to 75°W 3/8Near 99°W; Activate GOES-13 SXI/MDL 4/14Near 81°W; GOES-13 becomes GOES-East Stop GOES-12 GVAR GOES-13 GVAR relayed through GOES-12 Users do not re-point antenna 4/26Stop GOES-13 Drift at 75°W GOES-13 GVAR relayed through GOES-13 Switch ancillary COMM services from GOES-12 to GOES-13