The Welfare of Syrian Refugees Evidence from Jordan and Lebanon Paolo Verme World Bank

Background Half of Syrian population displaced (6.5 m IDPs, 4.4 m. refugees, 1.5 m. additional migrants) A WB-UNHCR partnership: WB analytical expertise on poverty and welfare UNHCR expertise and data on refugees Data sharing agreement Pilot study in Jordan, March 2014 Two countries in 2014: Jordan (0.61 m. refugees) and Lebanon (1.1 m. refugees) Six Data sets: UNHCR registry (proGres) UNHCR home visits UNHCR and WFP household surveys Focus on refugees living outside camps (about 90 percent of all refugees)

Ten Questions 1) Who are the refugees? 2) How different are refugees from “regular” populations? 3) How poor are refugees? 4) What are the main predictors of refugees’ welfare and poverty? 5) How vulnerable are refugees from a monetary and non-monetary perspective? 6) Do poverty and vulnerability statuses overlap? 7) How effective are refugee assistance programs? 8) What is the potential for alternative policies? 9) How does welfare compare across countries and data sets? 10) How transferable are the findings between countries and data sets?

Table of Contents Overview Concepts and definitions 1.A profile of refugees 2.Welfare and Poverty 3.Vulnerability 4.Policies 5.A comparative analysis across countries and data sets Annexes (Welfare and poverty on different data sets)

Income and Expenditure Responses

Income and Expenditure per Capita VariableObsMeanStd. Dev.MinMax Income per capita Income per capita with no zeroes Expenditure per capita Expenditure per capita net of UNHCR cash assistance

Distributions of Income and expenditure

Transfers 3.8 pecent of refugees declared to receive some form of household transfers Not specified whether transfers are remittances Transfers amounted to 214 JD/month/family on average or 21 JD/month/person => Few refugees receive transfers but the amounts are significant

Conclusion Income is unreliable, better to use expenditure Transfers seem to accrue to few refugee households and it is unclear how much of these transfers are remittances Collecting information on transfers and remittances from the recipient side is difficult in a refugee context One should explore alternative options to track remittances (money transfers agencies)