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INITIAL CONDITION: 6 th May 2016 Experimental Extended range prediction Experimental Extended range prediction

Real-time forecast based on 6 th May 2016 initial condition  This MME forecast has been prepared using the CFS (T126 & T382) and GFSbc (T126 & T382) (each 11 members). Abhilash et. al (2015): Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54, July 2015, DOI: /JAMC-D ,

Prediction of Extreme Heat

Probability of Occurrence for Extreme Heat

Pentad wise (P1-P4) probability of Occurrence for Extreme Heat

Chance for Heat Wave along with Maximum Temperature (Actual & Anomaly)

Temperature Histogram for 4-homogeneous regions of India

Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature (by MME)

Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature Anomaly (by MME)

Predicted pentad wise temperature anomaly (by MME)

Daily evolution of Soil Moisture (top 10cm) Anomaly (by MME)

Forecast of Cyclogenesis probability based on GPI from CGEPS(MME)

Prediction of Rainfall and Other parameters

Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa (by MME)

Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean sea level pressure (by MME)

Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa and 500mb Geopotential Height (by MME)

Daily evolution of GH and wind Anomaly at 500mb (by MME)

Predicted pentad wise rainfall (by MME)

Pentad anomaly (fcst)

Climatological mean of 20days RH_2m (ERA_Interm) Climatological Std. Deviation 20days RH_2m (ERA_Interm)

The next 20 days forecast indicates that  Cross equatorial flow is likely to strengthen gradually over the north equatorial Indian Ocean during the forecast period. Its further organization and consequent increase in rainfall activity are likely over south Bay of Bengal and Andaman & Nicobar Islands from 16 th May (consistent with the last forecast). A gradual weakening of the Arabian Sea anticyclone is likely towards the end of the current forecast period (27 th May).  Normal pre-monsoon thundershowers are likely over Kerala and south-interior Karnataka during 7 th -21 st May. WDs are likely to provide above normal rainfall activity over western Himalayan region and northeast India during 12 th -16 th May. Normal/below normal rainfall activity is likely over the remaining parts of India.  Formation of low pressure areas is likely over south Arabian Sea during 7 th -11 th May and over south Bay of Bengal during 12 th -16 th May.  MJO is likely to contribute to enhanced convection over the Indian seas during 12 th -30 th May.  Day maximum temperatures are likely to remain normal to below normal over major parts of north west India during 7 th – 16 th May; north east India during 7 th – 21 st May and parts of central India during 7 th – 11 th May. Above normal day maximum temperatures are likely over western Himalayan region, south peninsula and east India during 7 th – 21 st May.  Night minimum temperatures are likely to remain appreciably above normal over major parts of India outside the coastal belts of south peninsula during 10 th – 21 st May. Key points from the present forecast