FUTURE STATUS OF CRUDE OIL PRICE Akkadet Udomsirithamrong Kendra Kennedy Minh Nguyen 672 Final Project.

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Presentation transcript:

FUTURE STATUS OF CRUDE OIL PRICE Akkadet Udomsirithamrong Kendra Kennedy Minh Nguyen 672 Final Project

Overview

Variables VariableTypeDirection MonthSetInput StatusFlagOutput Inflation RateRangeInput S&P 500 IndexRangeInput Consumer Price Index RangeInput Consumer Confidence IndexRangeInput Diesel PriceRangeInput PopulationRangeInput GDPRangeInput Federal Funds RatesRangeInput Unemployment RateRangeInput Real Corn PriceRangeInput Dollar IndexRangeInput Fedex Stock Price RangeInput Southwest Stock Price RangeInput

Data Audit

Range Model

Range Models ModelLift (top 30%)Testing Accuracy Variable important Classification Tree FedEx Stock Price Consumer Confidence Index Consumer Price Index Neural Net FedEx Stock Price S&P 500

Binary Model

ModelLift (top 30%)Testing Accuracy Variable important CHAID FedEx Status Month_May Neural Net CPI Status Logistic Regression N/A

CHAID Model

Limitations Middle East situation indicators Limited global economic indicators Supply side

Thank You