Example Radar Data Assimilation Direct analysis of radar radial velocity data using enhanced NCEP GSI-3DVAR Analysis of radar reflectivity via ARPS complex.

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Presentation transcript:

Example Radar Data Assimilation Direct analysis of radar radial velocity data using enhanced NCEP GSI-3DVAR Analysis of radar reflectivity via ARPS complex cloud analysis scheme Data from 10 WSR-88D radars used Prediction by WRF-ARW Tropical Storm Erin Aug 18-19, UTC 0600 UTC 1200 UTC 1800 UTC Radar data every 30 min Forecast

WRF Fcst with radar data assimilated every 30 min over 6 h using 3DVAR+ARPS cloud analysis Forecast from NCEP NAM analysis at 06 UTC Forecast of Tropical Storm Erin (2007) over Oklahoma,  x = 1 km +0 h +3 h +6 h +9 h +12 h Observed reflectivity

Observed reflectivity at z=3 km Vr only, 4 radars in Oklahoma, 0-2UTC, 10min cycles Reflectivity only, 4 radars in Oklahoma, 0-2 UTC, 10 min cycles Vr+Ref, 4 radars in Oklahoma, 0-2 UTC, 10 min cycles obs, Vr, Z only & Vr+Z, WRF fcst every 3h from 06Z, NAM LBC 06 UTC 09 UTC 12 UTC 15 UTC 18 UTC

MODEL DOMAIN 801x801x53 dx=4km Hurricane Ike ARPS and WRF Prediction with Assimilation of Coastal Radars

Example Radar Data Assimilation Direct analysis of radar radial velocity data using ARPS 3DVAR Analysis of radar reflectivity via ARPS complex cloud analysis scheme Data from 2 coastal WSR-88D radars used (KLCH 、 KHGX) Prediction by ARPS or WRF-ARW Radar data every 30 min ARPS or WRF Forecast with GFS LBC DA CTRL ARPS and WRF Forecast with GFS IC and LBC ARPS 3DVAR Cloud Analysis 0000 UTC 0600 UTC 1200 UTC 1800 UTC

Reflectivity Observation and ARPS Forecast of Ike (2008),  x = 4 km +0h +3h +6h +9h +12h ARPS forecast assimilating with Ref+Vr every 30 min 0-6Z UTC using ARPS 3DVAR and cloud analysis and GFS background/LBC Observed reflectivity ARPS control forecast using GFS analysis at 06 UTC as IC and GFS LBC no radar with radar obs

ARPS Prediction Movie

WRF Forecast of Ike (2008),  x = 4 km +0h +3h +6h +9h +12h Observed reflectivity WRF forecast assimilating with Ref+Vr every 30 min 0-6Z UTC using ARPS 3DVAR and cloud analysis and GFS background/LBC WRF-ARW control forecast using GFS analysis at 06 UTC as IC and GFS LBC with radar no radar obs

WRF Prediction Movie