International Politics Third Image: Systems & Anarchy Systems Questions: –What Is A System? Provide Several Examples. –What Is Polarity? What Is A Unipolar, Bipolar, And Mulitpolar System? Provide Examples. –What Is The Role Of Power, Information And Certainty In Polarity? –Which Polarity System Is More Unstable, According To Neorealists? What Do Critics Say? Which Do You Think Is More Unstable? –What Does The Balance Of Power Theory Say? When Is Conflict More Likely, According To This Theory? –What Is The Power Transition Theory? When Is Conflict More Likely, According To This Theory? –Which Systems Theory Does A Better Job Of Explaining International Relations, In Your Opinion?

International Politics Third Image: Systems & Anarchy System Definition: –Interactions Of States & Nonstate Global Actors –Actions Which Shape And Constrain Individual & State Choices –2+ States Or Other Actors –Examples “Cold War System” Geographic Region Dyad (Pair Of States) Hemisphere International System New World Order Hegemony Cold War “Map”

International Politics Third Image: Systems & Anarchy Polarity Theories –How Many Systemic Great Powers? Unipolar, Bipolar, Multipolar –Variables Role Of Information Response To Uncertainty –Neorealism (Kenneth Waltz: “Structural Realism”) Multipolar = More Dangerous System Multipolar = More Uncertainty; Uncertainty -> Lash Out –Critique (Karl Deutsch + J. David Singer) Bipolar = More Dangerous System Multipolar = More Uncertainty; Uncertainty -> Caution Unipolar Bipolar Multipolar

International Politics Third Image: Systems & Anarchy System Power Polarity Exercise –The Game “Axis & Allies”…For Real! –Directions Go To POLS IP BD Axis And Allies Microsoft Excel Database Go To Military Personnel Exercise Spreadsheet Highlight The Countries And The Data For Your Year Click “Insert Chart” And Choose A Pie Chart Insert Title “Power Distribution, Military Personnel, (Year) In Data Labels Click Percentage Copy The Pie Chart Graph And Paste It In Microsoft Power Point With Your Name At The Bottom Do The Same For Military Expenditures

International Politics Third Image: Systems & Anarchy System Power Polarity Exercise –Example: 1818 –Use This To Determine Whether Your Great Power International System Is –Unipolar –Bipolar –Multipolar The Strength Of The Balance Of Power And Power Transition Theory –What Is The Distribution Of Power In Your System? –Did A War Between Or Among Great Powers Occur Shortly After Your System? Which Measure Of Power Does A Better Job Of Explaining Systems Theory? Check An Encyclopedia Or Yearbook For Your Year

International Politics Third Image: Systems & Anarchy More Power-Based Theories –Balance Of Power (Neorealism) Countries Do Not Fight Each Other When They Have Relatively Equal Amounts Of Power (Equilibrium) Countries Attack When Stronger Than Their Opponent (Why Pick On Someone Your Own Size? Pick On Someone Weaker!) Henry Kissinger –“Strong Do What They Will, Weak Suffer What They Must.” –Fluid Alliance System: May Join Weaker Side To Preserve Balance »Prince Von Metternich & Congress Of Vienna (Post-Napoleonic System Prevents Major War For A Century ( ) »Kissinger: USA “Tilts” Toward China Vs. Russia (1960s) »Kissinger: USA “Tilts” Toward Pakistan Vs. India (1970s)

International Politics Third Image: Systems & Anarchy HEGEMON: USA MID-LEVEL POWERS: Europe, China, Russia, Japan EVERYONE ELSE: Americas, Africa, Asia Even More Power-Based Theories –Power Transition Theory (PTT) Conflict Occurs Between Countries With Relatively Similar Amounts Of Power Less Conflict During Power Imbalance –Weak Countries Dare Not Attack Strong Conflict, Prefer Capitulation –Strong Countries Do Not Need To Attack Weaker Countries, Get What They Want From Weaker Country Capitulations According To PTT: World Is Hierarchically Oriented, Not An Anarchy (Neorealism)

International Politics Third Image: Systems & Anarchy According To This Graph, Should the United States and Soviet Union (USSR) Have Fought? Should the USA and China (PRC) Have Fought? Does This Help Explain Why The Cold War Was “Cold,” And Not “Hot?” GDP: Sum Total Value of Goods & Services Is GDP A Good Measure Of Power? Organski & Kugler, The War Ledger, 1980

International Politics Third Image: Systems & Anarchy Anarchy –Definition: Absence Of Centralized Authority Does Not Imply Chaos –Actors Make Own Decisions –Actors Lack Info On Other’s Strategy Until A Move Is Made Security Dilemma –Security For Oneself = Insecurity For Another –Result Mutual Mistrust & Suspicion Conflict More Likely edu/~ann/pd.html After Reading This Lecture, Play The Game At One Of These Sites

International Politics Third Image: Systems & Anarchy –Prisoners’ Dilemma A University Of Georgia Fan & Georgia Tech Fan Rob A Bank To Get Supplies For A Tailgate Party At The UGA- GT Game 3,3 5,0 0,5 1,1 Cooperate Defect Cooperate Defect The Cops Catch Both Fans With Guns But Not The $. Both Are Separated While The Police Try To Sweat Out A Confession From Both Fans. Player Strategies: Cooperate (With Each Other: Plead Innocent) Or Defect (Plead Guilty) Outcomes: CC = Both Stonewall, Minimal Sentence (1 Year), DC = UGA Plea Bargains, GT Gets 20 Years In Jail, DD = Both Confess & Get Modest Sentence (7 Years), CD = UGA Gets 20 Years In Jail, GT Gets Off (Sucker’s Payoff For UGA)

International Politics Third Image: Systems & Anarchy Anarchy Questions –Prisoners’ Dilemma What Strategy Is The Computer (Serendip) Playing? How Does Anarchy Complicate Playing The Game? How Might Such A Game Apply To The Confrontation Between The United States And Iran Over Nuclear Weapons? –“The Bedford Incident” What Strategy Is The USS Bedford Captain Playing? What Strategy Is The Soviet Submarine Playing? What Is The Outcome Of Both Captain’s Actions? What Can This Incident Teach Us About –Prisoners’ Dilemma? –Cooperation vs. Confrontation?